Originally Posted By leemac <<I don't believe that the continued growth of Orlando as an ever expanding theme park mecca can be maintained until eternity.>> True but there isn't going to be a new park any time soon. Neither WDW Co. or Uni want to build a new park so all of these projects that add capacity aren't going to move the needle. Orlando continues to see a growth in visitors - both domestic and international - (48.7m in 2007 to 55.2m in 2011) and that will continue for the foreseeable future.
Originally Posted By Dr Hans Reinhardt "It is about fans that just don't understand the economics involved." No kidding. That was clear when the FLE was first announced and I watched them go into a tizzy saying that it would never compete with Potter. Well duh. Disney often misses the mark, especially in Florida it seems, but I've never gotten the impression that it flat out doesn't know the game it's playing.
Originally Posted By HokieSkipper <<2,400 across three resorts. Each All Star Resort has more rooms than that.>> I don't disagree with your larger point, but this isn't true. All-Stars have 1920 each.
Originally Posted By leobloom >> It is about fans that just don't understand the economics involved. WDW is a hotel operator - it has more than 27,000 rooms that are owned and operated - and more than 33,000 in total. Uni has a grand total of......2,400 across three resorts. Each All Star Resort has more rooms than that. << And my understanding was that WDW's hotels hadn't been doing good business this summer, which was causing concern with management types who realized if you don't give people a reason to return to the parks then your hotel numbers suffer. And that was a cause for concern with WDW, which as you've pointed out is in the hotel business more than the theme park business. But maybe it was just a fluke this year and FLE will pack 'em in for the next three years...?
Originally Posted By Goofyernmost Personally, I think they all have reached a saturation point. There is just so much a family can do on a one or two week vacation. If there is too much then people get discouraged and find an alternative where before Disney would have been the choice. The 6 month planning schedule to be sure you get to eat, and now with the rumored x-pass that requires even more time commitment is daunting even to the seasoned Disney fan. That is one of the main reasons that I stay off-site. No scheduled meal times required, I have the freedom to just come and go as I please so even FP isn't a major problem. My touring credo is KISS, Keep It Simple, Stupid! I don't feel as if I have to see everything they have on any individual trip. I always know that I can come back and catch them at another time or visit. If I should happen to buy the farm sometime between visits, well, I doubt that the last words I speak will be "damn, if there is one thing I missed it was that I didn't ride Toy Story last trip".
Originally Posted By FerretAfros >>Allegedly, the push for Cars Land at DHS was motivated by TDO's concern/worry over the stale product they shill and the realization that Cars is a huge home run at DCA.<< Part of me really hopes that the Fantasyland expansion is successful, so that TDO sees that it's not just Cars that sells Carsland, it's the immersive concept. Personally, I was completely nonplussed by the DCA addition; it was nice, but it didn't really raise the bar for me. I don't think that the Cars franchise has the longlasting legs that are needed as the anchor of a large theme park area like this, and would rather see the investment used more wisely. In a way, Carsland reminds me of the Fivel themed area at USO. It was a lot of fun when it first opened, and everybody knew the story. But it stuck around beyond the point of relevance, simply because it was too expensive to retheme it to something that people recognize. (See also: Gadget's Go-Coaster in DL) I don't deny that they need a nice big addition at the Studios. I just don't think it should be Carsland. Unfortunately, they need something relatively soon, and Carsland would obviously have the shortest development timeline. Hopefully they'll learn from Fantasyland that it's quality that guests want, not specifically Cars; hopefully TDO also won't see that guests are showing up, and say that they don't need another investment for the interim.
Originally Posted By FerretAfros >>Personally, I think they all have reached a saturation point. There is just so much a family can do on a one or two week vacation.<< Not to mention that there simply aren't as many families with young kids right now as there were 5-10 years ago. This is largely due to the economy, but there are a whole number of factors involved. But if the total number of families in Disney's demographic is down, then the number of families that visit Disney will also be down. DL weathered the storm pretty well by relying on locals for the additional revenue (which seems to be the locus of the Limited Time Magic campaign, despite the reduced number of APs with the new pricing), but they also seem to be seeing the end of that tide. With the putcome of the upcoming election (whichever way it goes), perhaps society's habits will change, but right now, Disney is working with a limited audience.
Originally Posted By leobloom >> Disney is working with a limited audience. << Only because they insist on pandering to the families with preschoolers crowd. WDW is now, more than ever, a place for little kids.
Originally Posted By Dr Hans Reinhardt "Personally, I think they all have reached a saturation point. There is just so much a family can do on a one or two week vacation. If there is too much then people get discouraged and find an alternative where before Disney would have been the choice." This.
Originally Posted By leemac <<I don't disagree with your larger point, but this isn't true. All-Stars have 1920 each.>> I meant to type Pop Century - no idea why I went with All Star. PC has 2,880 rooms so that works!
Originally Posted By sjhym333 Leemac, do you know why Disney decided to stop doing the Christmas overlay at the Country Bears in the MK?
Originally Posted By leemac <<And my understanding was that WDW's hotels hadn't been doing good business this summer>> We've not been told anything specific about performance over the summer. Anecdotally attendance was definitely down again so it will all depend on whether the KPIs improve again to make up the shortfall in operating income. However it is also about forward-looking reservations - WDW Co. has never made a decision based on one quarter's performance - if WDW looks soft for 2013 then it might trigger a response. I'd wager that discounting will be deeper for 2013 with more free dining, giftcards etc. The advertising already looks like the stuff they ran a few years ago.
Originally Posted By leemac <<Personally, I think they all have reached a saturation point. There is just so much a family can do on a one or two week vacation. If there is too much then people get discouraged and find an alternative where before Disney would have been the choice.>> Saturation in terms of guests or in terms of experience? Guests numbers continue to rise in Central Florida and there is no sign that they will abate. Domestic numbers might start to flatline but I'm sure international guests will continue to increase their numbers - and they are far more valuable in terms of time spent in the area and money spent. In terms of experience - this is exactly why WDW Co. is trying to price admission media that offers less than 7 days as high as possible - so if there is a loss of a day or two here and there it has negligible impact. They are focused on guests that spend a week on-property - those 10.2m room nights they want to fill each year. If a guest chooses to spend a day at IoA now because of Potter then it has marginal impact - one day's admission media which is often just a negligible incremental increase anyhow, some F&B revenue and some merchandise revenue. It is a drop in the ocean. For many guests WDW is actually making more money if they visit IoA as they are often foregoing a day on their 14-day park hoppers and not using their free dining plan.
Originally Posted By leemac <<Not to mention that there simply aren't as many families with young kids right now as there were 5-10 years ago.>> In the US there is a declining curve on the number of families with young kids - the number of households with kids fell from 24.8m to 23.6m between 2000 and 2010 (and that includes all kids) but the number of under-18s increased from 72.3m to 74.1m over the same period - mainly driven by "non-white" population growth. Over the same period the Over-62s grew an incredible 21% - an extra 8.7m passed into that category over a decade. My point is that there are still enough families for WDW Co. to target with their product and their mass marketing. 23.6m households at an average occupancy of 2.58 equals 60.9m potential guests - before considering other demographics and international guests. That is a nice size demographic pool to play with.
Originally Posted By leemac <<Not to mention that there simply aren't as many families with young kids right now as there were 5-10 years ago.>> Cost - no one wanted to find the budget - either from Park Ops or SQS.
Originally Posted By Goofyernmost >>>Saturation in terms of guests or in terms of experience?<<< Saturation in terms of experience. There are just so many hours in a day. The Orlando area has so many things to do and so much time demanded of guests of the area that it is mind boggling to try and figure out what to do. Also, with the current economic atmosphere the days of people taking longer vacations is, at least temporarily, limited. If a person can find a week, 9 days in a row counting weekends, to leave a job and show that they can get along without you, isn't something that many dare to do with our present situation. So it becomes a nightmare to figure out where to go, what to see, when and where to eat, how to get there, try to find some time to do something else that is offered at the multitude of venues in the area...wow...one starts to wonder, is it worth it? There is more than enough to keep everyone busy for now. Building more will not increase the number of visitors so it becomes an expenditure for the future (hopefully), not so much now! I remember back in the good old days. I took the family to Florida for a total vacation of 11 days. Six of those days were on the road from Vermont and Back. During that trip we were able to see just about everything in MK. Part of a day in Epcot (brand new, wasn't that much to see that we knew about...pre-internet days), a trip to Kennedy Space Center and on the way home a quick stop at Silver Springs and a day tour of Washington, DC. Some of those were while on the road (i.e. Silver Springs, Washington and Daytona Beach.)
Originally Posted By Dr Hans Reinhardt "They are focused on guests that spend a week on-property - those 10.2m room nights they want to fill each year." Fascinating. "If a guest chooses to spend a day at IoA now because of Potter then it has marginal impact - one day's admission media which is often just a negligible incremental increase anyhow, some F&B revenue and some merchandise revenue. It is a drop in the ocean." Even more fascinating. Makes sense though. So this makes me wonder what USF's ultimate plan is, especially since they aren't very aggressive on hotel expansion. Seems like their model is more like DLR than WDW.
Originally Posted By Kennesaw Tom My understanding is that USF has continuing plans to replace rides as well as adding a few new rides to their arsenal. Also, doesn't USF have plans to build a huge value resort?
Originally Posted By HokieSkipper <<So this makes me wonder what USF's ultimate plan is, especially since they aren't very aggressive on hotel expansion. Seems like their model is more like DLR than WDW.>> Basically the case. They will be adding Cabana Bay Beach Resort, and maybe another one as well, along with a water park. But they know they'll never been the singular destination resort WDW is.
Originally Posted By Kennesaw Tom Right! Isn't the Cabana Bay Beach Resort going to have the largest pool in Florida? To be fair, I think USF has their fan base. And they certainly draw the teenager crowd.
