Originally Posted By Mr X Is there some kinda LP "premium package" one could purchase in order to get access to all the red ink around here? You know, like "Springer: Uncensored" and "HBO After Dark"? That'd be great.
Originally Posted By Elderp The Field Poll just released Obama is leading the state of California by 22 percent. If it holds it will be the widest margin of victory since WWII.
Originally Posted By dshyates How bad did Bush screw up? The Dems are going to get a black guy with a Muslim name elected 7 years after Muslim extremists attacked the country. That's how much America hates the direction Bush has taken this country. 'nough said.
Originally Posted By FerretAfros I sort of came to the realization tonight that McCain is sort of running on the same strategy that Kerry used 4 years ago. Kerry ran as "not Bush." His platform was not terribly strong, but what was there was mostly the opposite of whatever Bush had. This time around, McCain is running at "not Obama." He has a lot more of a platform that Kerry ever had, but the feeling I've always gotten is that Obama has a lot more of a presence. That could be caused by a wide variety of things (liberal slants in media, him being a better public speaker, saying just the right thing at just the right time, etc), but ever since Palin came into the picture, McCain has sort of become the oppostie of Obama. Obama's new and looks different that most politicians, and McCain's old and white. Obama's VP is an old guy, and McCain's is a young woman. Obama hits the right issues at the right time (economy) and changes them to go with popular opinion, McCain is consistant in his overall views from the start of the campaign. I'm not sure that one strategy is better than the other, but when taking it to the extreme (Kerry), the "not the other guy" approach certainly doesn't work. I do feel like this election has had a lot more of a media slant since the beginning (maybe I'm just more aware of it now, but the Obama/Clinton/Edwards race got a ton more coverage than the GOP equivalent, and it's been the same since then). Maybe it's because I'm in a much more liberal place geographically than I was last time. Maybe there really is a difference, but it seems that this election has been decided for a long time...however, Democrats are known for clencing defeat from the jaws of victory...
Originally Posted By Mr X ***I'm not sure that one strategy is better than the other, but when taking it to the extreme (Kerry), the "not the other guy" approach certainly doesn't work.*** Well, I wouldn't go so far as to say "certainly doesn't work", since the election was so very close. I agree that it doesn't seem all that effective though, particularly this year.
Originally Posted By dshyates "Democrats are known for clencing defeat from the jaws of victory..." The dif is pragmatism vs ideology. During elections ideology win over pragmatism. Ideology (the right wing forte) is hopeful. Pragmatism (the Dems forte) is depressing and people don't want to here what it will actually take to fix things. They would rather wrap their heads in a flag and scream "Patriotism" while flying the U.S. of A. into a mountainside.
Originally Posted By mawnck >>The Field Poll just released Obama is leading the state of California by 22 percent. If it holds it will be the widest margin of victory since WWII.<< Note that "since WWII" includes both of Ronald Reagan's elections. Wow.
Originally Posted By dshyates But the final number will be after the Supremes on again off again recount.
Originally Posted By mawnck What's that saying? Elections aren't decided by votes, but by the people counting the votes?
Originally Posted By Elderp I read the polls not only are the chickens hatching, they are going to have to be raised in cages that are at least 1 inch more their wingspan (see prop 2).
Originally Posted By SingleParkPassholder The fact Obama leads by such a wide margin here in California bodes well for the defeat of Prop. 8. Excellent.
Originally Posted By tiggertoo I'm just worried that all the Democratic gloating will cause complacency in the base, who, on election day, won’t show up thinking Obama already had the thing won (as all the pundits are yammering about). Long story short, all those polls showing huge leads could end up being Obama’s bane. BTW, a Rass poll in PA has Obama up by just 4 points. Sure, it could be an outlier, but it does show that McCain has making up points FAST in battleground states. When was the last time you saw a poll that had McCain that close in PA? Seriously, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Dems blow another one, and Vice President Palin is taking her place as “the leader” of the Senate (what a freak’n moron) following the inauguration.
Originally Posted By tiggertoo <<The fact Obama leads by such a wide margin here in California bodes well for the defeat of Prop. 8. Excellent.>> I don't know. There are a lot of hispanic Catholics who will vote for Obama, but also for prop 8. I don't think the CA Obama polls are a very good indication. Also, the further Obama is in the polls here, the lower the chances the younger generation will turnout on Nov 4. And given that younger voters are a solid bloc of support for Prop 8, it could bode poorly for the measure. Currently, Obama is up by about 22%ish. Either way, here's hoping.
Originally Posted By mawnck >>I'm just worried that all the Democratic gloating will cause complacency in the base, who, on election day, won’t show up thinking Obama already had the thing won (as all the pundits are yammering about). Long story short, all those polls showing huge leads could end up being Obama’s bane. << You betcha. Lots of factors here going against Obama, and this is the biggie. People gotta understand that this victory is going to have to be a landslide of Biblical proportions to keep the GOP from challenging the results. Every vote for Obama will help Obama, no matter where it's cast.
Originally Posted By hopemax This year is different though. I think there are more people who are voting *for* Obama than did for Kerry or Gore, many of those votes were "not-Bush" votes. People WANT to be part of this movement, they don't want to just watch this one from the sidelines and then chime in later with "don't blame me, I didn't vote for the guy." And a number of people this year want to "run up the score." I'm voting Dem, but I don't consider myself one. All the true Dems I know are running around waiting for the other shoe to drop. They are something, but it's not complacent. Scared out of their minds they will screw this up, but not complacent.
