Disney's 1+ Billion Dollar NexGen Gamble

Discussion in 'Walt Disney World News, Rumors and General Disc' started by See Post, Jan 17, 2010.

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    Originally Posted By CuriousConstance

    "And your 95% raved number is coming from...?"

    I made it up, I'm just saying most of the people who go into the gates every morning, leave in the evening happy, and certainly willing to return.
     
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    Originally Posted By HokieSkipper

    <<As for NextGen, I am not sure anyone has a good feel at how it is going to change the guest experience. For instance, when pretrip FP's come online for resort guests and AP holders, how will it affect day guests not staying on property? A friend involved in the system tells me that eventually Disney wants to move all FP's to the online system. He says that if you want to ride Soarin for instance and not wait in a long standby line, you will need to make your FP reservation at the earliest possible time that you have access. Otherwise you will not be able to get one. Like dining reservations, you will see people get online on the day that they system opens the new FP availability and some attractions will be gone within the first hour.>>

    This is basically the worst plan they could come up with, and will make parks like EPCOT awful to visit.
     
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    Originally Posted By DouglasDubh

    If it doesn't work then they will need to make adjustments. I doubt anything is set in stone. They can add wifi capacity and they can tinker with the fast pass system.

    Right now if you go to a ride and the next fast pass is available at 2 pm but you want to go swim back at your hotel then or that is when a show you want to see is scheduled, you're out of luck. I like the idea that I can get on my cell phone and book fast passes for 6 pm.

    Like many, I don't want to book out my entire vacation months in advance. I am hopeful that NextGen will optimize convenience and flexibility. It may not, but that is yet to be seen.
     
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    Originally Posted By Dr Hans Reinhardt

    "But that's beside the point. If Disney and NextGen require people to use their phones to navigate and manage their trips throughout the day, the wifi is a critical part of the equation, unless they want people running up their data charges and pissing of international tourists who don't have a smart phone that works in the US."

    This is very good point Hokie. When I was at DL last summer the wi-fi service was horrendous. I could barely use the in park guide app (Mobile Magic?) to check current show times, waits, etc. I have to believe that Disney will roll out a more robust wi-fi system in its US parks soon, especially since they are shifting to mobile technology to support the new MyMagic + system.
     
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    Originally Posted By sjhym333

    The reality is that while people leave Disney happy, Disney is also very concerned about the growing trend that guests are opting to spend less days at the Disney parks then they once were. While Disney is still the resort of choice, people are opting to visit Universal and Sea World with their extra days instead of staying on the Disney property. Disney's own internal surveys show that guest flow (and days visited) has shifted in the past couple of years. Disney is concerned about this. Not in a "we wont be #1 anymore" kind of way, but in the fact that Disney is seeing people buying less days on their theme park tickets. That means people are then spending that money somewhere other then on property.
     
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    Originally Posted By Dr Hans Reinhardt

    "Disney is concerned about this. Not in a "we wont be #1 anymore" kind of way, but in the fact that Disney is seeing people buying less days on their theme park tickets."

    Two things: 1) you basically explain the reasoning behind why Disney is expanding its Parks and Resorts operations in China, and 2) what Universal is doing isn't sustainable. Universal simply can't keep building a new multi-million dollar Harry Potter ride every two or three years.
     
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    Originally Posted By HokieSkipper

    <<what Universal is doing isn't sustainable. Universal simply can't keep building a new multi-million dollar Harry Potter ride every two or three years.>>

    Not will they. What Universal is doing is stabilizing its two current parks, bringing them back to and over past attendance levels before expanding their resort.
     
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    Originally Posted By HokieSkipper

    Nor will they*
     
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    Originally Posted By sjhym333

    I think Universal is positioning itself in a great way. If I had one wish for them it would be to find a way to get folks to stay on their property. The Lowe's hotels onsite are a much better experience from anything I have had at Disney, though I am a big Bay Lake Towers fan. We have stayed in just about every Disney resort over the years, but we now stay at Universal because of the quality of the hotel experience.
     
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    Originally Posted By gurgitoy2

    "He says that if you want to ride Soarin for instance and not wait in a long standby line, you will need to make your FP reservation at the earliest possible time that you have access. Otherwise you will not be able to get one. Like dining reservations, you will see people get online on the day that they system opens the new FP availability and some attractions will be gone within the first hour."

    This could basically change the pattern back to the "old" way, where most people stood in the standby line because nobody can get in-park FP's anymore. It's hard to say what the effects will be.

    "2) what Universal is doing isn't sustainable. Universal simply can't keep building a new multi-million dollar Harry Potter ride every two or three years."

    Really? I'm not sure about that. How is it different from Disney, where they are expected to open new attractions every few years to get people back in? Universal will likely do the same, and they have been doing so for decades...it's just that Harry Potter is a huge success for them. I don't see it as not sustainable. Sure, they may not be able to rely solely on Harry Potter, but I doubt they will. They have already done different things like Transformers, the Simpsons, and Despicable Me to diversify from the boy wizard.
     
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    Originally Posted By sjhym333

    In many ways Universals transformation over the past couple of years is amazing. I think besides the already Harry Potter expansion, the addition of Harry Potter to the Universal Park side is brilliant. Add to that the Simpsons are which looks like it will be fun and Transformer, they have really moved forward very quickly
     
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    Originally Posted By CuriousConstance

    "I like the idea that I can get on my cell phone and book fast passes for 6 pm."

    I also like this. Don't want to plan things out months in advance down to the rides we'll be riding each day/time, but it would be cool to be able to get a FP with a cellphone or laptop before heading to the park, so you don't have to waste all the time walking all the way to the attraction, getting the fastpasses, and then walking all the way back to use the fastpasses when the time comes up.
     
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    Originally Posted By sjhym333

    But you are aware that you will probably need to do that 180 days before your trip. My friend working on NextGen tells me the likely hood of a person waking up and going online and getting a FP for a major attraction that day is zero, if the system works the way it is currently being designed. Think of it like getting reservations to Le Cellier or Ohana a month before a trip.
     
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    Originally Posted By CuriousConstance

    So, maybe I'm not thinking of this correctly, but unless an attraction is so popular that it tends to sell out of FPs before the end of the day, moving the FP system online and available ahead of time, wouldn't really do anything to increase the use of the FP for that particular attraction, would it?
    I mean you still need to be in the park, on that day, and willing and able to go on the ride, so why would moving the system online, suddenly up the popularity of the fast pass?
    The only thing I can see is more people being no shows if they can book so far out, but also you would have a lot of people unaware/unwilling to book ahead of time too, so seems like it might even out.
     
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    Originally Posted By sjhym333

    Partly correct. Will the number of total FP's being distributed be different. Maybe not, though I hear that is being debated at the moment. The thing that will affect people is the number of days out you will be able to pre-book your FP. So lets say Disney decided 180 days out you can get FP's for an upcoming trip. There is a real possibility that within the first couple of hours that the window is open all the FP's for popular attractions will be gone. So in effect, you might be closed out in 1 to 2 hours instead of the 5 or 6 hours on a normal day. Think of it as every popular attraction could potentially be a Toy Story Mania where everyday FP's are gone very quickly. Also expect that busy times like Christmas and Easter will the worst times because of the increased attendance, just like now. Though today you have the option to hit the park early and grab a FP.

    Another way this will affect people is if you make a decision to take a weekend trip to Disney after the 180 day window has come and gone. If all the FP's for Test Track were distributed several weeks ago you will be forced into the Standby Line. You may think that isn't a problem, but we aren't talking one big attraction, your talking Test Track, Soarin, Space, Splash and Big Thunder Mtns, Peter Pan, Everest, Kilimanjaro, Toy Story Mania and several others. You will probably be able to get FP's for the people eater attractions plus the newly added options like preferred parade or show viewings.

    My understanding is that there are is nothing in the system that allows for people who no-show for a FP time and there is still some uncertainty about what will happen if someone cancels a booked FP time. Will the FP return to the pot or will it just go away? No one seems to be sure at the moment.

    If all of the above is true...and I cant say that it is all accurate, only what I have heard from people working on it, this will change the traffic patterns in the park. If you book a trip 2 months out and all the FP's for major attractions are gone, then your choices become getting on a long standby line or heading to the park for opening. Lots of people do that now, but I am hearing that Disney is expecting an increase in the number of folks at rope drop who have been unable to get a FP but do not want to stand in long lines. So they will hit the parks early, do all the popular attractions (which in turn will make the standby lines longer earlier in the day) and then either do other attractions or they may head to their hotels. No one is really sure at this point. It will be interesting to watch.
     
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    Originally Posted By FerretAfros

    I think that guests may be more willing to accept FPs at odd times if they do it in advance, which could mean more attractions will sell out each day. If it's 4pm and I've been in the park all day, I may or may not want an 11pm on Space Mountain. But if I knew a few days in advance that I had that late reservation, I might sleep in a little extra that morning, or take a more leisurly approach throughout the day, or visit a different park in the morning knowing that I'd still have FP capabilities in the evening.

    Additionally, I think that there will be a lot more emphasis on getting FP's early simply to ensure that you have 'something' on your calendar. Much like how it can be tough to get last-minute dining reservations, causing people to book months in advance at places that may not be considered "top tier", I think that a lot of guests will make FP reservations early because they know that they'll sell out later (similar side effect: look at the popularity of various FP and non-FP attractions; the ones with FP are always more popular because they appear more important to first-timers). If I were on the fence about my options, I'd make sure to grab FPs early, just to ensure I'd have a chance at having a decent trip.

    Plus, they're planning on implementing the NextGen system to every possible facet of the park experience (all attractions, major shows, parades, dining, etc), so it will impact the queues for all of these things too. Right now, it's very easy to get on an attraction like Journey Into Imagination, but when you start adding in people who reserved it months in advance, it could really turn any traditional park-going conceptions upside down.

    I think that the system will definitely increase the number of no-shows at attractions, unless some sort of penalty is built in, which seems very unlikely. As I mentioned, people will make reservations at attractions and/or times they don't particularly care for (especially since it appears that you have to book in multiple attraction 'blocks'), and eventually change their minds on part or all of the reservations.

    I honestly think that what they're doing is really fascinating from a conceptual standpoint. If it works like they're hoping, it will completely revolutionize the theme park experience. However, from what I've seen, it adds a lot of unneeded elements that could cripple it from the very beginning; unfortunately with its huge pricetag, it's too big for Disney to let it fail
     
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    Originally Posted By CuriousConstance

    Well, it sounds like many things have yet to be decided, and no one really knows what the system will even be like. I find it hard to believe they will implement a plan that will make the experience miserable for very many people. And if it ends up becoming that, I'm sure they will change it quickly.
    When is this suppose to all happen anyway?
     
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    Originally Posted By FerretAfros

    >>I find it hard to believe they will implement a plan that will make the experience miserable for very many people.<<

    Why's that? They've been running the FastPass sytem for 14 years now, and it makes plenty of people miserable. Obviously, it also has it benefits, but any system like this will have serious drawbacks for those who are unable to or don't use it to its full potential.
     
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    Originally Posted By CuriousConstance

    I don't know, we shall see.
    The reserved seating for shows and parades really interests me. I can't stand waiting for things like parades or fireworks. Would be SOOOO much better having a reserved spot!
    Do you have to pay more for the nextgen stuff?
     
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    Originally Posted By Dr Hans Reinhardt

    "I think Universal is positioning itself in a great way."

    Yes, yes hey are, but it isn't anything different from what Disney did when Eisner was building fast and furiously at WDW in the 80s and 90s. I guess what I'm trying to say is that eventually the physical expansion of Uni will mature, just like it has at WDW, and they will have rely on other ways to drive growth much in the same way that Disney is banking on timeshares, cruise ships, and MyMagic+ in Florida.
     

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