Originally Posted By SingleParkPassholder "<<Correct me if I'm wrong, but you just got a job, right?>> Yes, much to the envy of many long term unemployed friends." But still, you did.
Originally Posted By fkurucz ^^So? What does the fact that I was incredibly lucky have to do with anything?
Originally Posted By andyll <<That will be a big consolation for displaced tech workers in the US.>> The plants that were closed were not in the US. Their Oregon plant was on the list but its closure was delayed then canceled. <<^^Remember, they were telling us last year that by this time everything would be hunky dory. Now they're saying it will be next year,>> That is absolutely not true. They were telling us last year that we would not have GDP growth at all this year and maybe not until 2010. Lets get back to the point. The assertion is that the profits that are driving the stock market are only a result of cost cuttings. I just pointed out, for the companies reporting this week, that assertion is incorrect. These companies are seeing significant revenue increases. To support those revenue increases companies will have to start hiring again. The quesiton is... will the hiring happen in the 4th quarter in time to help the retail section of the economy or be pushed into next year. Based on my company... I would say pushed. ( that tended to happen even in good economies ) I would guess most larger companies will still freeze hiring through the 4th quarter.
Originally Posted By hopemax >The assertion is that the profits that are driving the stock market are only a result of cost cuttings.< I'm trying to figure out where I said "only," can you help? > much of the gains are coming through cost cutting measures<
Originally Posted By andyll <<If the earnings reports showed some consistency with increased revenue and sales numbers it would be one thing. But earning reports are still showing that much of the gains are coming through cost cutting measures, >> Ok... this is what you said. This is what I say. You are wrong. The Current reported numbers for the companies reporting this week and driving the dow past 10000 (which is the topic) did so through revenue growth and not cost cutting. I know its a common tactic on forums to imply something but word it in a way so the poster can back out of it when proven wrong.
Originally Posted By RoadTrip The economy IS picking up. My sister in Dallas, who had been unemployed for 5 months, received 2 job offers in August. She went with the company she liked best for a $50K+ job. She took about a $5K loss from her previous position, but in the current economy I thought that wasn't bad at all. I know… random sample of one. But many others tell me the same thing. The job situation is getting better.
Originally Posted By Sport Goofy << She went with the company she liked best for a $50K+ job. She took about a $5K loss from her previous position, but in the current economy I thought that wasn't bad at all. >> Which also explains why the stock market does not reflect reality. If people are out of work or are going back to work for less money, how can companies possibly continue to sustain any increase in revenues? The idea that companies will prosper in an environment where consumers have less and less money to spend is ridiculous.
Originally Posted By RoadTrip Crap Goofy... you think a $50K+ job is a BAD thing?? Back in the 80's I accepted almost a 50% cut in pay to stay employed. Either you are very young or very uninformed.
Originally Posted By Kar2oonMan Because someone is making $5,000 less than they were a year ago doesn't mean they will have to live hand-to-mouth. They will still purchase things. And I am quite sure that $50K is more than unemployment pays.
Originally Posted By fkurucz <<I just pointed out, for the companies reporting this week, that assertion is incorrect. These companies are seeing significant revenue increases.>> Yes, Intel did. But at AMD's expense. Global PC sales are still way down. Intel stole market share from AMD. The tide is not rising yet. AND,..Intel's sales are still down YoY.
Originally Posted By fkurucz <<The plants that were closed were not in the US. Their Oregon plant was on the list but its closure was delayed then canceled.>> And how does that benefit US workers? Now if you told me that Intel opened a new plant in the US, then that would be different. The botom line is that we lost a bunch of jobs in this recession and its going to stay that way for a long time. 10% unemployment is the new normal. And yes, I distincttly remember the talking heads in 2008 saying the recovery would arrive in early 2009. When that didn't happen we were fed the "green shoots" nonsense, that it would be late summer. Now they're saying early 2010. Lather, rinse, repeat.
Originally Posted By fkurucz <<Which also explains why the stock market does not reflect reality. If people are out of work or are going back to work for less money, how can companies possibly continue to sustain any increase in revenues? The idea that companies will prosper in an environment where consumers have less and less money to spend is ridiculous.>> Ding, ding, ding, ding! We have a winner. Also there will be no cheap and easy credit for consumers this time either. Welcome to the "recoveryless" recovery. They will fudge the numbers, the stock market will continue to rally, while reality will continue to be felt on Main St. with endless layoffs, few jobs and falling wages. There are currently 6 job seekers for every open job, the highest its evern been since the dept. of labor began compiling that statistic.
Originally Posted By Kar2oonMan So, only those predicting gloom and a continued downward spiral have it right. There's no room for any sense of optimism whatsoever, because every silver lining has a cloud. It's time to curl up in a ball and mourn losses, abandon hope all ye who enter here.
Originally Posted By fkurucz <<Crap Goofy... you think a $50K+ job is a BAD thing??>> If you used to make 55K, it is. People with paycuts don't buy new cars, they don't trade up their house and they don't take vacations. Sure, its better than an unemployment check, but that's not the point. A consumer based economy cannot recover when consumers are tightening their belts to cope with smaller paychecks.
Originally Posted By fkurucz <<So, only those predicting gloom and a continued downward spiral have it right. There's no room for any sense of optimism whatsoever, because every silver lining has a cloud. It's time to curl up in a ball and mourn losses, abandon hope all ye who enter here.>> We can choose to ignore fundamentals all we want to, that doesn't change reality. We are working off the biggest debt hangover in history. We won't be "snapping back" next year. This will take time.
Originally Posted By hopemax I'm sorry guys, Andy has outed me. Like everyone else on the internet, I only deal in absolutes, so when I said much I really meant only and only backed off so I had "cover" on the internet. So I'll go slink off to my parents basement and not bother any of you with my ramblings any more*. *Not really, but we are closing on our house tomorrow, so posting will probably be non-existent for the next few weeks. Anyone want to come clean my apartment's blinds (what I am doing today)?
Originally Posted By Kar2oonMan People may buy a used car. But they still need a car of some sort. Maybe instead of the sports car they opt for something more basic. Instead of big vacation, they take one closer to home. Look, I'm not trying to make light of it all and say everything's perfect and wonderful, but honest to Pete, some of you guys with the constant shooting down of ANY glimpse of positive news is just astounding after awhile. People are forever predicting the end is near, and forever other people keep inventing automobiles and televisions and computers and internets and starbucks and other things, usually with no shortage of folks lining up to tell them why they're crazy to even try.
Originally Posted By andyll <<Yes, Intel did. But at AMD's expense. >> So what? The assertion was that Intel's numbers were a reflection of cost cutting and not revenue. AMD's revenue is going up but they are getting smoked by Intel. <<Global PC sales are still way down. Intel stole market share from AMD. The tide is not rising yet.>> Intels shipments of chips is outpacing PC sales but it is not all (or even mostly) market share gain. ( less then .5%) It is likely a combination of low inventories because of 1Q/2Q cutbacks and expectations of 4Q PC sales. It is actually a sign of the rising tide. <<AND,..Intel's sales are still down YoY.>> Find one post, here or anywhere, that claims the economy is recovered. Intel's 2008 3rd was the best in companies history... of course they have not recovered that much and no one is claiming they have. They are expecting to do so next quarter. In fact; for the next few quarters... almost all companies are going to show huge YoY gains because of the crash that happened Nov last year. When that happens are you going to claim the economy fixed even with unemployeement will still be in the 9% range? I won't. YoY is not very significant right now because we already know the economy is still down. An 18% gain in QoQ after a 8% gain the previous quarter is significant because it shows revenue is recovering faster then expected.
Originally Posted By andyll <<I'm sorry guys, Andy has outed me. Like everyone else on the internet, I only deal in absolutes, so when I said much I really meant only and only backed off so I had "cover" on the internet>> You imply that there has been no significant revenue growth and that current profits are still the result of cost cutting. When called on your statements with actual revenue numbers you start arguing what the definition of 'is' is. When called on that you STILL don't mention if you are still backing your original assertion or not. So lets have it... are Intels and JP Morgans ( the 2 reported yesterday) profits a result of increased revenue or cost cutting?
Originally Posted By andyll <<And how does that benefit US workers? ... The botom line is that we lost a bunch of jobs in this recession and its going to stay that way for a long time. 10% unemployment is the new normal>> The topic is if there is a true recovery that justifies the current market. Intel's job cuts overseas are being replaced with equivilent hires overseas... no more no less. Not a factor in your 10%. <<And yes, I distincttly remember the talking heads in 2008 saying the recovery would arrive in early 2009. >> McCain and FOX were claiming the economy was just having a minor adjustment before the election. After the GDP crash no one was claiming it would recover in 2009... much less early 2009. If the talking heads you watch were claiming in Nov/Dec of 2008 that we would have recovery in 1st quarter 2009 then you better get new talking heads.
