Originally Posted By ecdc Sign me up for 2oony's posts. Bad news is proof that the economy is doomed. Good news is proof that the economy is doomed. It reminds me of that scene in the Shawshank Redemption when the prison guard Hadley finds out he's inherited a bunch of money and all he does is whine about the taxes. When someone mentions he could buy a car, he retorts angrily, "Damn kids pesterin' ya for a ride all the time."
Originally Posted By Sport Goofy << Look, I'm not trying to make light of it all and say everything's perfect and wonderful, but honest to Pete, some of you guys with the constant shooting down of ANY glimpse of positive news is just astounding after awhile. >> This isn't about positive or negative. It is a bout being pragmatic and honest with expectations. If you want to celebrate the stock market, that's fine. Just don't be surprised when you find that the economy is still in the crapper a year after this milestone in the Dow. Until we attack the fundamental problems that created this mess, we'll never see standards of living real economic progress in this country. There will be fits and starts with upticks in the Dow and other metrics, but most of it will be done with smoke and mirrors manipulated by the top 1% of wealth in America at the expense of the bottom 99%. When do manufacturing jobs return to America? When do Americans get by without having to resort to the credit card? What happens when Americans without any pensions or savings face retirement? When do we get financial regulations on Wall Street and consumer protections on Main Street? These are incredibly tough questions that have no answer right now. If we want another Ponzi scheme to inflate our hollowed out econony so we can smile about our increased stock portfolio, don't be surprised when the next scheme bursts in a way that damages us all forever.
Originally Posted By Sport Goofy << Crap Goofy... you think a $50K+ job is a BAD thing?? >> Depends on how big the plus is . . . In general, $50K isn't enough for a household to afford the median priced house at traditional lending standards. It isn't enough for a household to save enough money to pay for things like a kids education, health care, or retirement plans. It's probably enough to get by for now as long as you don't care about the future or long-term investment. Wages in this country have been stagnant for a decade now. When you account for inflation in the economy during the same period, it amounts to real income declines for most households. 50K earned today does not have the same earning power as in 1999, 1989, etc. I think a lot of people neglect to think about inflation when they think about salaries. A number that seemed good 10 or 20 years ago when they entered the job market still seems good today, even though the reality is that it has about half as much earning power.
Originally Posted By Kar2oonMan >>What happens when Americans without any pensions or savings face retirement?<< The savings rate has gone from practically nothing to around 6%. That's a good thing. Pensions aren't going to be a reality for most Americans, the writing's been on the wall in that regard for 20 years at least. What it might mean is that some people will have saved and not lived beyond their means and will be okay. Others will have to move in with the kids (which is how it is in most cultures outside of America, by the way). It'll be a shift, but really not that different from how things always were except in the past few decades. Go ahead, believe that there's no way for the economy to bounce back, that real estate will forever be depressed and/or falling. But I personally wouldn't bet on it. Over time, most pessimistic predictions (always, always seen as simply "reality" of course) wind up way off.
Originally Posted By RoadTrip Geez... the Gloom and Doomers here are absolutely incredible. I'm very glad I seem to live in a different universe than them.
Originally Posted By SingleParkPassholder "^^So? What does the fact that I was incredibly lucky have to do with anything?" I don't think I've ever seen anyone so defensive about getting a job.
Originally Posted By Sport Goofy << The savings rate has gone from practically nothing to around 6%. That's a good thing. >> I agree. But it doesn't correspond with higher stock prices. The money that is being saved is no longer being spent on consumption. How do companies grow businesses with people saving more and spending less? This is really my whole point here. You can't celebrate an increased savings rate and a stock market rally without realizing that there is a fundamental disconnect between the two outcomes. Either we get back to our free-spending ways and grow the economy based on a Ponzi scheme, or we accept that growth will be slow and stock prices will be suppressed as Americans put their financial house in order. These outcomes, are in some ways, mutually exclusive. Do you want to celebrate Dow 10,000 or celebrate a rebirth in American fiscal responsibility? You really can't have both. << What it might mean is that some people will have saved and not lived beyond their means and will be okay. Others will have to move in with the kids (which is how it is in most cultures outside of America, by the way). It'll be a shift, but really not that different from how things always were except in the past few decades. >> In other words, more housing inventory on the market to depress prices as Mom & Dad put the old homeplace up for sale to move in with the kids. In the meantime, the kids aren't making as much money as Mom & Dad did in their earning years and can't afford to buy the old homeplace for the price being asked. A great argument for one of the many reasons why real estate isn't coming back anytime soon. << Go ahead, believe that there's no way for the economy to bounce back, that real estate will forever be depressed and/or falling. >> That isn't my thesis. I am just doubtful that we're going to get bounce back soon. It took about 20 years for the economy to get going again after the Great Depression. Let's say things are half as bad now -- maybe it takes 10 years? Maybe takes 5? For the record, we're in year 2 of this recession. We have quite a way to go.
Originally Posted By SingleParkPassholder Google has decided the worst has passed. All rejoice. And they're hiring, in case you have friends who need work. <a href="http://www.informationweek.com/news/internet/google/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=220601040" target="_blank">http://www.informationweek.com...20601040</a>#
Originally Posted By Sport Goofy << Geez... the Gloom and Doomers here are absolutely incredible. I'm very glad I seem to live in a different universe than them. >> The "gloom and doomers" probably sold their real estate at the top of the market and got out of equities before the big crash. Then they put the cash back to work as the markets stabilized. At least that's how I did it. Gloom and doom doesn't mean you don't take advantage of opportunities. I'm in a much better position today than I was a year ago. I am very thankful to be in a great job situation and 100% debt free. Of course, I wouldnt' be in that situation if not for that doom and gloom mentality that taught me to make pragmatic decisions all throughout life while the optimists were out partying it up and being all cheerful. Most of those guys aren't doing as well as me in my observation.
Originally Posted By Kar2oonMan >>How do companies grow businesses with people saving more and spending less?<< People may be spending less overall at the moment, but that won't go on forever. Spending retracts, then eventually expands again. As long as there are wants and needs, there will be innovative marketers that see that opportunity and build a business around it. That means that some big giants will fall, others will get gobbled up by rivals. But there will also be businesses and industries that you and I have never dreamed of, businesses who cater to frugal shoppers, because that's just the way it always goes.
Originally Posted By Kar2oonMan I'm in a much better position today than I was a year ago.<< Well that's great! So cheer up, already!
Originally Posted By Sport Goofy ^^ It's hard to be cheery when other people are still struggling to find a job. I see it in my community everyday. Very stressful times for a lot of individuals and families. I wish there was more that I could do to help.
Originally Posted By andyll Gloom and Doom is fine when it is based on current facts. Gloom and Doom based on agendas from talking heads is not fine. Gloom and Doom based on political agendas is not fine. Winning elections is big money for politicans, companies and the rich. The economy wins or loses elections. Carter lost because of the economy, Bush I loss because of the economy, Obama's win was sealed because of the economy. The 2010 and 2012 elections will be won/loss because of the economy. Lets be honest... the rich don't beleive in supply side economics because they've studied its theory... they like it because they pay less taxes under it. Obama likes Kensyen economic theory on how to handle recessions partly because it fits into his ideas of Gov't helping people. Obama focused on the negative aspects during the election because it was going to help him win it. Republican's now focus on the negative aspects of the economy as opposed the the positive aspects of the economy because they think it will help them in 2010. It's the general public that needs to wake up and ignore politics and verify what they are hearing. If Intel posts a big quarterly profit one side is going to say its because of cost cutting and the other side is going to say it because the economy is improving. The public needs to understand that they are saying those things for ideological reasons. It's easy enough to check yourself these days. So many of my conservative friends pulled their money out of the market AFTER the crash at around 6500-8000. They believed the talking heads on FoxB and FOX (and there were others) that were saying that the crash was because Obama was elected and that it was going to crash further because wall street hated his policies. They believed the stimulas was going to make the economy worst. They beleived China was going to cash in all their treasurys. They believed that our debt was going to cause 20% inflation. There is no doubt the American public are sheep that are so easily swayed.
Originally Posted By Mr X ***So many of my conservative friends pulled their money out of the market AFTER the crash at around 6500-8000.*** Typical reaction. What'd they think, the market was headed for zero?
Originally Posted By mawnck >>People may be spending less overall at the moment, but that won't go on forever. Spending retracts, then eventually expands again.<< >>But there will also be businesses and industries that you and I have never dreamed of, businesses who cater to frugal shoppers, because that's just the way it always goes.<< The flaw in the logic. Past performance does not predict future results. Here's the situation: Record US budget deficits. Record consumer debt defaults. Continually tightening credit. Dollar dropping like a rock. Oil and precious metals rising rapidly (see: dollar dropping like a rock). Foreign governments already switching their reserves to other currencies (see: dollar dropping like a rock). FDIC nearing bankruptcy. State and local budgets getting clobbered due to decreased tax revenues, with attendant layoffs. Most of the major banks insolvent, kept alive by accounting tricks that were illegal two years ago. Most significantly, no movement whatsoever to alleviate the conditions that led to the market crash and credit freeze last year. I've been told that "Gloom and Doom is fine when it is based on current facts." Well, there you go. But you're right. It's not all bad news. The computer chip makers' revenues are up, and the Dow cleared 10,000 (dropping like a rock) dollars yesterday!
Originally Posted By SingleParkPassholder "The flaw in the logic. Past performance does not predict future results." OR Thosw who do not remember history are condemned to repeat it.
