Originally Posted By RoadTrip I have no interest in beating Spirits feet with a rubber hose. Besides the fact that it would hurt him, which I certainly don't want, he might actually enjoy it. ;-)
Originally Posted By RoadTrip I also realize that Orlando being up does not necessarily mean that Disney hotel occupancy is up. It would help to know what they are using as a base. It would be most informative to know the percent decrease in occupancy from last year. Since January is typically the slowest period for WDW, I would guess that even in 'good years' their hotel occupancy rate during January would be quite low.
Originally Posted By MPierce I normally go every year at the end of January RT. I can only say that as the years have past, WDW has seemed more crowded every year. I can't give you actual numbers, but the Wilderness Lodge always seems like it has a pretty good crowd. I couldn't even begin to imagine how empty 35% would feel.
Originally Posted By Sport Goofy << I couldn't even begin to imagine how empty 35% would feel. >> Which is why the whole premise of this thread is suspect to begin with. If we're getting down to numbers that low, then get ready for the bread lines and soup kitchens a la the Great Depression. I have about as negative outlook on the economy as you can have, but don't see anything quite that dire yet.
Originally Posted By MPierce I'm relying on what Spirit has said he's been told. Why would his source have a reason to lie to him. I'm going on what Spirit has said in the past. I personally think his creditenials are impeccable. Every time he makes a statement like that he puts his reputation on the line while he is merely using information relayed to him. Nobody I know of would want to take a beating for passing on bad information unless they were a glutton for punishment.
Originally Posted By Sport Goofy It's easy to put out garbage information when you know that no one is ever going to come back and revisit the topic 6 months from now. Disney won't release their occupancy rates for the quarter until April or May of next year. By then, this thread will be buried under a thousand others. Verifying its accuracy is something that won't ever get done, and its easy for people to stake their "reputations" on bogus information that they know will never be put to the test of reality 6 months down the road.
Originally Posted By bobbelee9 <<I do hope this turns around because things that are cut back quickly seem to take forever to return.>>> Ain't that the truth! While most of us probably should be tightening our belts at this point, people who HAVE MONEY, should be spending it! Buy a 2nd or 3rd home/car, buy a baby grand, take more vacations, that gets more money into circulation, and gives people jobs.
Originally Posted By MPierce How about first hand informatiuon. Say I go to the parks, and come back, and give you my best estimate. Also we have a very reliable source in -em who definetly can estimate crowd sizes plus her other many contacts will probably be discussing this with her.
Originally Posted By MPierce >> While most of us probably should be tightening our belts at this point, people who HAVE MONEY, should be spending it! Buy a 2nd or 3rd home/car, buy a baby grand, take more vacations, that gets more money into circulation, and gives people jobs. << For some strange reason I keep having to expand my belt! >> buy a baby grand, << I don't think it would fit through the door of my Double Wide!
Originally Posted By fkurucz <<What's the comparison data from last January>> I can't answer this authoritatively, but when we were there one January the parking lot at Pop Century was full.
Originally Posted By bobbelee9 I would love to hear your report, MPierce. I'm sure it would be accurate. Would you mind sacrificing yourself and going there to inform us?
Originally Posted By fkurucz <<If we're getting down to numbers that low, then get ready for the bread lines and soup kitchens a la the Great Depression.>> This would be true if most people were financing these expensive WDW vacations out of real cash flow, as opposed to home equity loans and CCs. Now that the Home ATM is closed until further notice a lot of people are beginning to realize that a WDW vacation involves "real money". <<I have about as negative outlook on the economy as you can have, but don't see anything quite that dire yet.>> Auto sales are in free fall. Even mighty Toyota and Honda saw 30% declines from last year. The bottom line... most people are broke. And they are going to be that way for a while. And without access to cheap, easy home equity credit the spending spree is finished for now.
Originally Posted By bobbelee9 That's so sweet of you. Do you need company, someone to carry your note books or tape recorders for you?
Originally Posted By fkurucz The truth is that a WDW vacation is a luxury. Luxuries get cut back on during tough times, and these are especially tough times. As far as soup kitchens and bread lines, today we have public assistance. If we didn't there would be a lot more people in line at the local food pantries (which have been picked clean anyways).
Originally Posted By bobbelee9 Oops, what fkurucz said wasn't sweet at all, more like depressing. #34 for for MPierce.
Originally Posted By MPierce >>That's so sweet of you. Do you need company, someone to carry your note books or tape recorders for you? << Sure come on down bobbelee. It could be a pleasant escape from those New England winters. Bring you husband, he could show me some of his hot dog fishing techniques!
Originally Posted By MPierce >> Now that the Home ATM is closed until further notice a lot of people are beginning to realize that a WDW vacation involves "real money". << I'm trying to get a 3rd mortgage on my tool shed!
Originally Posted By Sport Goofy For what it's worth, Disney reported an occupancy rate of 88% for their 2nd Quarter FY08 last year (that would include January). January is the slowest month of that quarter, but 35% is a tremendous decline in an occupancy rate. As fkurucz correctly points out, auto sales are down about 30% year over year. Home sales are down by a similar amount. Where do vacations fall in the mix of expenditures that families cut back on in hard times? They're certainly not the major purchase of a home or automobile. So, let's just guess that maybe January occupancy is closer to 75% than 88% -- what's a 30% drop in that? Maybe you get down to 50%? But it's really hard to see how you get to 35%. I'm sure the occupancy numbers are abysmal looking forward into the new year. But let's be realistic and look at figures in a manner that actually compares them with real data in the surrounding economy and with previously reported data.
Originally Posted By MPierce >> I'm sure the occupancy numbers are abysmal looking forward into the new year. But let's be realistic and look at figures in a manner that actually compares them with real data in the surrounding economy and with previously reported data. << Very true, Sport Goofy. I know we are both season veterans of many an orbit around the Sun, but we don't really have a period like this to compare it to. I guess the time following 9/11/01 would be the closes thing.
