Originally Posted By davewasbaloo To be fair, these are just the notional forecasts. It is likely people will not book as far out due to personal uncertainties, people now saving and living payckeck to paycheck, or fear their air carriers may collapse. It could be the notional forecast are at 35%, but actual room utilisation will be higher at the end of the accounting periods through last minute bookings.
Originally Posted By hopemax >The bottom line... most people are broke. And they are going to be that way for a while. And without access to cheap, easy home equity credit the spending spree is finished for now.< Read today, that industry analysts expect $2 Trillion in credit card lines to be pulled back over the next 18 months. <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE4B01HI20081201" target="_blank">http://www.reuters.com/article...20081201</a> "The credit card is the second key source of consumer liquidity, the first being jobs, the Oppenheimer & Co analyst noted. "In other words, we expect available consumer liquidity in the form of credit-card lines to decline by 45 percent."" The fallout from everything is going to be, um...interesting.
Originally Posted By MPierce >> Read today, that industry analysts expect $2 Trillion in credit card lines to be pulled back over the next 18 months. << Darn, there goes that 5 series BMW I was going to purchase.
Originally Posted By RoadTrip People ARE NOT BROKE. They are scared and not spending. There are trouble spots in the country as far as real estate goes. There are industries where unemployment is bad. But overall the country is not in terrible shape. Not unless people let the fear get to them. We have as much available to us on our home equity line of credit as we had five years ago. We have more credit available on our charge cards than we did 5 years ago. We are not unique. We are not wealthy. We have steady jobs and have used credit very cautiously. We are not the only people out there like that. We will get out of the current recession no matter what people do. But we will get out a lot quicker if they stop panicking. As for January attendance. We have been to WDW every January for the past 8 years. Typically we stay at Boardwalk; occasionally we've stayed at the Wilderness Cabins or Old Key West. The only one of those resorts that has seemed fairly full is Boardwalk. The Yacht Club, Swan and Dolphin are also quite full during that period. Why? Because of all the people with "Hello, My Name Is XXXXX" stickers on their shirts. The Epcot resorts are big convention resorts. If businesses are cutting way back on sending people to conventions I can see how that would impact the Epcot resorts. As for overall attendance; virtually every ride during Janaury (except Soarin') has a line of 10 minutes or less. You rarely have trouble getting into most restaurants at the last minute without a reservation... even WITH the Disney Dining Plan in existence. My experience would indicate that with the exception of Convention attendees, January is a VERY slow time at WDW.
Originally Posted By Sport Goofy << People ARE NOT BROKE. They are scared and not spending. >> Why would they be scared if they weren't broke? People may not be broke, but they are now in position where they have to live within their means. A large swath of this country hasn't done that for 2 decades.
Originally Posted By RoadTrip <<Read today, that industry analysts expect $2 Trillion in credit card lines to be pulled back over the next 18 months.>> What % of that Trillion will have absolutely no impact on people? I probably have 70K of credit available that I've never used and never will use. If my limits were all cut by 50% it would be a big who cares? It wouldn't even impact my FICO. Again, I am certainly not unique. There are many people out there who have credit cards with significant credit limits who NEVER use them.
Originally Posted By RoadTrip <<Why would they be scared if they weren't broke?>> They are scared because the media is telling them that they will be broke. Which for a very small percentage of the population will be absolutely true. But for most people it is not.
Originally Posted By MPierce >> As for January attendance. We have been to WDW every January for the past 8 years. Typically we stay at Boardwalk; occasionally we've stayed at the Wilderness Cabins or Old Key West. The only one of those resorts that has seemed fairly full is Boardwalk. The Yacht Club, Swan and Dolphin are also quite full during that period << The last 4 years we stayed at WL in late January seemed very full.
Originally Posted By RoadTrip Let's get away from this line of discussion. One more post like these and we'll have vbdad in here talking about offshoring jobs. ;-)
Originally Posted By MPierce >> Again, I am certainly not unique. There are many people out there who have credit cards with significant credit limits who NEVER use them. << Yes, but they still can't afford to travel by Am Trak!
Originally Posted By MPierce >> People may not be broke, but they are now in position where they have to live within their means. A large swath of this country hasn't done that for 2 decades. << That's the problem with reality setting in. That half a million dollar home the mortgage company said you could afford doesn't seem like such a good idea now.
Originally Posted By Sport Goofy << They are scared because the media is telling them that they will be broke. Which for a very small percentage of the population will be absolutely true. But for most people it is not. >> 2 years ago, there were commentators saying that subprime mortgages and real estate in general was such a small percentage of the overall economy that it couldn't possibly have a major impact. Guess they were wrong. Whenever someone tells me that something is "too small to have an impact," I usually expect it to have an impact.
Originally Posted By Sport Goofy << That half a million dollar home the mortgage company said you could afford doesn't seem like such a good idea now. >> Especially if you bought it for a half a million dollars and it's only worth $300,000 now.
Originally Posted By RoadTrip <<2 years ago, there were commentators saying that subprime mortgages and real estate in general was such a small percentage of the overall economy that it couldn't possibly have a major impact. Guess they were wrong. Whenever someone tells me that something is "too small to have an impact," I usually expect it to have an impact.>> Again, it really shouldn't have. The subprimes are a very large percentage of the homes presently on the market, but a very small percentage of most lending portfolios. The reason they've been eating it is they are forced to write down the value behind of ALL their loans, even the ones where people have always paid on time and always will.
Originally Posted By A Happy Haunt I was reading in The Sunday paper most American Households have $10,000 in credit card debt!!! OMG!!
Originally Posted By MPierce >> I was reading in The Sunday paper most American Households have $10,000 in credit card debt!!! OMG!! << I have an aquaitance that had $70,000 of credit card debt. What do you think his chances of climbing out of that hole were.
Originally Posted By A Happy Haunt I have NONE!!! I have a Disney Visa that gives me 6months no interest on a Disney Vaca!! WHAT AM I DOING AT HOME!!
Originally Posted By MPierce ^^^ Same here on both accounts, and I was just thinking the same thing after Spirit told me the count on January bookings.
Originally Posted By fkurucz <<People ARE NOT BROKE.>> Wanna bet? Millions (several millions) of households have negative equity in their houses (in many cases in the 6 figure range). Millions more have been foreclosed. The government is spending trillions to prop up the economy. Wages have not been keeping pace with inflation. We have a negative savings rate. The average 401(k) balance is less than $30,000 (good luck retiring on that). People aren't just scared. They have suddenly realized that they have been living wildly beyond their means, and are now realizing that all that money they borrowed to live that way will have to be paid back (with interest too). Sure, some people are doing OK. You yourself admitted that you would never use a HELOC to buy anything. Unfortunately, tens of millions decided otherwise. Did you ever stop to wonder how so many households with 5 figure incomes could afford his and hers luxury cars? The epitome of all this was a commercial for some lender (I forget who, maybe it was countrywide) where a guy named Stanley tells you about his wonderful house, cars, vacations, club memberships, etc. He pauses and says: I'm up to my eyeballs in debt. Somebody help me". And of course the answer is to refi the house and roll all the existing consumer debt into it. Millions upon millions were doing this. But no more.
