Originally Posted By Sport Goofy << ^^Just make sure that your land lord isn't about to be foreclosed on. >> I did my due diligence there, too.
Originally Posted By Sara Tonin "There is no such law that applies in San Diego County." Actually there is...it applies after a disaster.
Originally Posted By SingleParkPassholder Well, if gas isn't factored into inflation, then the numbers don't mean rhymes with sit. This morning, gas at the Chevron near our house was going for $3.14 a gallon. Tonight, on the way home, it was $3.29. Sheer craziness.
Originally Posted By Mr X Inflation is not a factor, folks. It's increasing at a moderate 2% per year, which is economically very normal and healthy. Add in fuel and food, and it rises to 2.5%, still well within norms and very healthy for the economy.
Originally Posted By fkurucz ^^^Ya gotta love it (the gov'ts numbers). It seems like every month my wife and I have to sit down to figure what we can do differently to cut back. This month's top challenge is to find and extra $100 every month to pay for our increased health insurance premiums. I am considering shopping around for new auto and homeowners insurance, but I doubt I can squeeze more that $20-40 a month out of that. We will probably eat out even less frequently than before. I am not looking forward to next summer's gas prices.
Originally Posted By fkurucz A few months ago I read that the IMF has the real US inflation rate pegged around 15%. This number matches my real world experiences. Sure, PC's and flat panel TV's are dropping in price, but how often do you buy one of those?
Originally Posted By fkurucz <<This morning, gas at the Chevron near our house was going for $3.14 a gallon. Tonight, on the way home, it was $3.29. Sheer craziness.>> Similar story out here. Was 2.70 just a few days ago. Not its 2.95 or higher.
Originally Posted By Mr X **A few months ago I read that the IMF has the real US inflation rate pegged around 15%** So every 7 years the price of everything doubles? I don't think so.
Originally Posted By alexbook >>There's also a ton of excess inventory on the rental market right now. All those empty condos that can't be sold are being dumped on the rental market. My landlord wanted a 20% increase on the rent a few months ago. I walked. I found a bigger place, more amenities, nicer neighborhood for 20% less than what I was paying before. If you are being gouged on rent in San Diego, you aren't looking in the right places. There's plenty of homeowners out there who are starving for rent money right now since their properties can't sell.<< I keep hearing that rents are going to come down, but so far they keep going up in Orange County. In fact, they seem to have accelerated over the last year. My landlord is raising my rent by about 8%. After shopping around, I've discovered that rents have gone up so much over the last year that the higher rent is actually a bargain. :-( Maybe rents will drop here, too, once the "mortgage crisis" has "worked its way through the economy," as they like to say on TV, but it hasn't happened yet.
Originally Posted By fkurucz <<So every 7 years the price of everything doubles?>> If that had been the rate the past 7 years, then yes. Fortunately it hasn't. Its only been the past couple of years (a strong correlation with the falling dollar). One exception I would make here is health care and health insurace. It has been increasing at double digit rates for the past 7 years. But the notion that inflation is only running 2.5% is right now is utter rubbish. Most basic grocery items are up 10-20% this year, and some are much more (milk is almost up 100% where I live). I am not exagerating. I go grocery shopping with my wife (at her insistence) at Sam's Club. It seems that most items have increased dramatically in price. Meat prices have skyrocketed as well. Cuts that used to go for $6/lb now go for $10/lb. You name it: bread, eggs, veggies, dairy are all up.
Originally Posted By fkurucz <<My landlord is raising my rent by about 8%. After shopping around, I've discovered that rents have gone up so much over the last year that the higher rent is actually a bargain. :-(>> Unfortunately you are competing with the recently foreclosed for rentals. Its going to get a lot worse before it gets better.
Originally Posted By Mr X **But the notion that inflation is only running 2.5% is right now is utter rubbish.** If I had a dime for every time a person thought their personal observations somehow trumped the actual data, I'd have enough money to ride out ANY inflation scenario.
Originally Posted By fkurucz Oh, and I forgot to mention how natural gas (used for heating homes in the Western US) has doubled in price these past few years. We saw our winter heating bill skyrocket and had to turn down the thermostat quite a bit. We painted the house last month. Decent paint cost us about $20 a gallon. I recall paying $12 about 7 years ago.
Originally Posted By Dabob2 <Add in fuel and food, and it rises to 2.5%, still well within norms and very healthy for the economy.> I'm not saying you're wrong, but where did you get your figures from? And how did they arrive at their figures? Since you don't live in the States, I'm assuming it's based on something you read rather than observation.
Originally Posted By Mr X Dabob, even if I lived in the U.S., I still wouldn't rely on personal observations when attempting to evaluate the inflation statistics for the worlds largest economy. The fact is, everyone is going to have their own views and perceptions of what amounts to a teeny tiny corner of the big picture. It's like some investors I hear about, talking about "wow, I went to the mall and it was dead...it's RECESSION FOR SURE", or the vice-versa "MAN, the mall was busy on a weekday, we should invest in retail", etc., etc...
Originally Posted By Dabob2 Well, it's not quite like that. I know milk and gas (to take two examples) have indeed gone up a lot in the last couple of years, and that's not just for me, it's for everyone. At any rate, the question remains, where did you get your figures, and how were they arrived at?
Originally Posted By Mr X I use a lot of sources, but the easiest one to view month by month, seasonally adjusted, with or without food and energy etc, is the consumer price index.
Originally Posted By Dabob2 Have a link, including what is included in that index? And hopefully one that contains what happens when you do include food and fuel?
Originally Posted By Kar2oonMan >>The fact is, everyone is going to have their own views and perceptions of what amounts to a teeny tiny corner of the big picture.<< Yes, but that contributes or detracts from consumer confidence. I'm used to higher prices for stuff here in teh San Francisco Bay Area, but even here, prices have jacked up noticibly on any number of items, much as fkurucz is saying. Milk, gas, meat, etc. have all spiked recently. There's something to be said for taking the national pulse by going out and witnessing what is going on in the real world, too. Is it annecdotal evidence? Sure, but finding out that the average Joe is feeling pinched by rising prices is an important economic indicator. Sort of the difference between someone handing Walt a spreadsheet indicating which rides are popular vs. Walt going out and listening in to guest comments.
Originally Posted By Dabob2 I was curious about the cpi, because I know a lot of people don't consider it a reliable indicator. I found this, which is interesting: <a href="http://www.investopedia.com/articles/07/consumerpriceindex.asp" target="_blank">http://www.investopedia.com/ar ticles/07/consumerpriceindex.asp</a> "However, critics view the methodological changes and the switch from a COGI to a COLI focus as a purposeful manipulation that allows the U.S. government to report a lower CPI. John Williams, a U.S. economist, described his view of this manipulation when he was interviewed in early 2006. Williams prefers a CPI, or inflation measure, calculated using the original methodology based on a basket of goods having quantities and qualities fixed. David Ranson, another U.S. economist, also questions the official CPI's viability as an indicator of inflation. Unlike Williams, Ranson doesn't espouse the viewpoint that the CPI is being manipulated. Instead, his view is that the CPI is a lagging indicator of inflation and is not a good indicator of current inflation. According to Ranson, increases in the price of commodities are a better indicator of current inflation because inflation initially affects commodity prices and it may take several years for this commodity inflation to work its way through an economy and be reflected in the CPI. Ranson’s preferred inflation measure is based on a commodity basket of precious metals. What is immediately apparent is that three different definitions of the CPI are being used. Since these definitions are not operationally equivalent, each method of measuring inflation would lead to different results. Different CPI or Inflation Levels It does appear that the differing means of measuring inflation produce disparate indications of inflation for the same period. The November 2006 Consumer Price Index Summary, which is published by the BLS, stated that "During the first 11 months of 2006, the CPI-U rose at a 2.2% seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR)". Williams' estimate of CPI for the same period was 5.3%, while Ranson's reported an 8.2% estimate. "
