Originally Posted By alexbook I'm curious about how we got the notion that it even makes sense to talk about "the inflation rate." If you start digging into the latest numbers, you see that there are hundreds of variables. To say that the whole thing adds up to a single number seems a little silly. Here's the Bureau of Labor Statistics' latest CPI summary: <a href="http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm" target="_blank">http://www.bls.gov/news.releas e/cpi.nr0.htm</a> I think the breakdown by category (Table 1) is particularly interesting: Food & beverages 4.5% Housing 2.9% Apparel -1.8% Transportation 2.2% Medical care 4.6% Recreation 0.3% Education & communication 2.4% Other goods & services 3.6% The final number of 2.8% is a weighted average of those. Choose different weights and you get a different average. (These are September 2007 numbers, BTW. October isn't up, yet.)
Originally Posted By dshyates There are many beautiful places in fly-over country and other places that have a reasonable cost of living and are a pleasure to live. I lived in the Denver Metro area for 11 years leaving 3 years ago and while to say they don't get bad weather when they do it is usually short lived with it being sunny and sixty the next day. If you truly don't want any winter, there is always SoFL. Fort Myers has those beautiful sunsets, but not the hip and edgy culture. Its more of a straw hat, big ugly hawaiian shirt, shorts, and flip-flops kinda place. Oh, and boat drinks. You'ld be just across the swamp from SoBeach, $50 puddle hopper from Key West, and a 4 hours drive from WDW.
Originally Posted By fkurucz <<I'm not saying you're wrong, but where did you get your figures from?>> These are the gov't numbers. I know that it is risky to challenge these numbers based on personal observations, but there is more to it than that. The collpse of the US dollar and the rise of gold are usually good indicators that something is going on in the realm of US inflation.
Originally Posted By fkurucz While I have no proof, I strongly suspect that the gov't is cooking the books regarding inflation because they want to ionflate their way out of the current debt/housing bubble mess we are in now. For instance, with cooked numbers they can keep SS COLAs lower than they should be, in the vain hope of deferring the day of reckoning for SS. They can also lower interest rates to stimulate the economy, with the pretext that inflation is low. The problem is that the world markets aren't buying it and the US dollar is almost in freefall. Once China unpegs their currency to the dollar (and they threatened to do that today) we will be in deep doo-doo.
Originally Posted By fkurucz << I lived in the Denver Metro area for 11 years leaving 3 years ago and while to say they don't get bad weather when they do it is usually short lived with it being sunny and sixty the next day.>> Shhh! Don't tell anyone! We don't want the front range to become yet another megalopolis some day. Kidding aside, I think that the show stopper out here is going to be fresh water. Metro Denver is heavily dependent on acquifers (wells) that are anticipated to be dry by around 2020. A lot of people out here will be kissing their bluegrass lawns goodbye.
Originally Posted By hopemax > << I lived in the Denver Metro area for 11 years leaving 3 years ago and while to say they don't get bad weather when they do it is usually short lived with it being sunny and sixty the next day.>> Shhh! Don't tell anyone! We don't want the front range to become yet another megalopolis some day.< I agree, no Denver migration! (until after we've moved up there, and bought a house).
Originally Posted By Mr X **The collpse of the US dollar and the rise of gold are usually good indicators that something is going on in the realm of US inflation.** Gold is not a good indicator of inflation...as an inflation hedge it totally sucks. The fall of the usd is good for american multi-nationals, don't be fooled.
Originally Posted By barboy The weak US dollar really helps local turism. I am seeing far more Euro holders in Vegas, Los Angeles, San Diego and especially in San Fran. area as well as Tahoe these days. Europeans are all over Fisherman's Wharf in San Fran. as well as up in the wine country of Sonoma and Napa Valley.
Originally Posted By Mr X Yup, barboy, that's one factor. And Dabob, it certainly IS good for most Americans...strong companies mean more jobs and higher wages.
Originally Posted By barboy The likes of a Germany and France are becoming a bit unnerved about the weakened US dollar-- these Porsches and Hermes scarfs will be too expensive for the US markets and how many would be US tourists to Europe have reconsidered lately due to the Euro valuation against USd. This weak dollar is keeping people home to tour WDW instead of Dl Paris.
Originally Posted By Dabob2 <And Dabob, it certainly IS good for most Americans...strong companies mean more jobs and higher wages.> Maybe in the old days. Now, so many companies' loyalty is not to their workers or their country, but to their bottom line. If Company X, ostensibly an American company, is making tons of money by employing Chinese or Malaysian workers at rock-bottom wages when they used to employ Americans, exactly how does that help Americans? Don't get vbdad55 started on this. And having China hold so much of our debt is not a good thing long term either, IMO.
Originally Posted By jonvn China is paying for the war. We are going to be spending $2.4 trillion on a war and where is that money coming from? From bonds bought by Japan, China and Korea. We have no trade barriers with China, and they have a ton with us. And we can do NOTHING about it, because they have us financially. If they stop paying for the war, we have no money. Yeah, we've done right well by ourselves. We've handed this nation over to China.
Originally Posted By vbdad55 ^^^Ya gotta love it (the gov'ts numbers). It seems like every month my wife and I have to sit down to figure what we can do differently to cut back. This month's top challenge is to find and extra $100 every month to pay for our increased health insurance premiums. I am considering shopping around for new auto and homeowners insurance, but I doubt I can squeeze more that $20-40 a month out of that. We will probably eat out even less frequently than before. I am not looking forward to next summer's gas prices. yep - insurance costs for us went up $128 / mo and here is the real kicker...I lost one dependent off that policy because she turns 23 in December - so the company no longer allows me to carry her on my insurance, even though she is a full time student. So my option - pickup some crappy little policy that covers basically nothing - and pray nothing that couldlater be viewed as a pre existing condition occurs between now and graduation/job in June. So what occurs - you get to use COBRA - except they do not charge you for her as a dependent - they charge you as if she has her own policy -( they just remove the money from your check) - to the tune of $407 / month, as she has to be carried at the same level of coverage I have - no option in that. Twenty three and never sick a day in her life- $407/month- unreal. Got my property taxes - up 11% YTY after 9% last year in a housing market that is stagnant. gas passed $3.30 a gallon here weeks ago Best guestimates on grocery prices that I read say the increase YTY somewhere between 8% and 11% - which doesn't surprise me since the trucks that deliver the goods run on gasoline Chicago area just got a 23% increase YTY from ComEd Nicor - our natural gas company rates up 40% over the last 3 years. yep, inflation is 2.5% - sure it is !
Originally Posted By fkurucz <<Best guestimates on grocery prices that I read say the increase YTY somewhere between 8% and 11% >> That seems more in line with what our grocery store receipts have been saying.
Originally Posted By alexbook Great wisdom from K2M: >>There's something to be said for taking the national pulse by going out and witnessing what is going on in the real world, too. Is it anecdotal evidence? Sure, but finding out that the average Joe is feeling pinched by rising prices is an important economic indicator. Sort of the difference between someone handing Walt a spreadsheet indicating which rides are popular vs. Walt going out and listening in to guest comments.<< I've been thinking that it would be an interesting academic exercise to construct the "perceived inflation rate." Differences between perceived inflation and actual inflation: #1: When prices go up, we notice. When they don't go up (or actually go down, as gas prices did in September), we don't notice. That's just how our brains work. #2: The actual inflation rate puts more emphasis on more expensive items. The perceived inflation rate puts more emphases on items we buy more often. If something you buy every day goes up, you notice it, even if the actual amount of the increase is small. If something you buy once every three years (a computer or a car, for example) goes up, you may not even notice, even if the actual increase is large. So, what's the point? Why care about people's perceptions, if they're different from statiscally demonstrable reality? Because perceptions drive decisions--buying decisions and voting decisions.
Originally Posted By fkurucz Its one thing when a handful of items increase in price, its another when the same basket of groceries at Sam's Club costs 15% more than the year before.
