Originally Posted By leemac <<If Disney is so keen on discounting...What is the deal, then, with building a new hotel? A new DVC? A new "Residential" community? And hopefully not... a Boutique park? If they are hard pressed to get people into things at full price, shouldn't they be improving the existing venues to attract guests? (Improve the PARKS!!!!!! is what I am hinting at ;-) )>> New hotel? There appears to be demand for that category of hotel plus all of the infrastructure is in place so it is just the interiors that need to be designed and installed. New DVC? Are they building anything else at the moment? I don't believe there is anything else on the block at the moment but I'm way out of the loop on DVC. Golden Oak - this is a tiny development in the scheme of things and it is a new venture in a new market. There isn't much risk - all of the concierge services will be provided by the Four Seasons and the build-out won't happen unless there is demand. Boutique park? I'm still intrigued by the notion. Discovery Cove is performing adequately (it is hardly a barnstormer for Sea World) and I think layering in Disney story-telling and ABD-type experiences it could be a huge hit. However I do get nervous about charging for premium experiences - must as I hated the now-nixed idea of charging for Golden Fastpasses. The problem is the same as with theme parks in general though - massive capital expenditure and high running costs. WDW guests currently get W experience for X price and in their minds it may be difficult to equate Y experience with Z price - just "improving" the offering might not be sufficient to jack up the price. Improve the PARKS!!!!!! This is why Harry Potter and Fantasyland Expansion are litmus tests for central Florida theme parks. If both of them meet or exceed expectations over the short and medium term then I'd expect to see additional capital expenditure at the other three WDW parks. The problem is justifying an new attractions if they aren't either bringing more people to the parks or spending more.
Originally Posted By magnet I don't know what the reasoning is, but I would imagine that part of it is the following (not that you were asking me, but here's my two cents anyway): Empty land provides no revenue. The parks are already bringing in guests. So, do you create something that generates a brand new revenue stream, or do you simply spend that money on an incremental fix to a park? Creating a worthy new attraction for a Disney park is not easy. It requires a great deal of creativity and originality and may just translate into a few more clicks of the turnstyles. Also, what if people hate it? On the other hand, dropping down a new DVC resort, hotel, or housing development requires much less creative effort, and opens up additional revenue on space that was previously dormant. However, as has been pointed out -- there is a saturation limit, so there is a point where building resorts becomes a bad idea. Some believe that tipping point is already behind us.
Originally Posted By leemac <<However, as has been pointed out -- there is a saturation limit, so there is a point where building resorts becomes a bad idea. Some believe that tipping point is already behind us.>> Great points magnet. And if the point above is correct then it truly is game over for growth at WDW. Occupancy rates continue to be decent at WDW (albeit at a discount) compared to the rest of central Florida and if the market is already saturated then there is little point in spending money on expanding the parks as it will bring in no additional dollars.
Originally Posted By EPCOT Explorer >>New hotel? There appears to be demand for that category of hotel plus all of the infrastructure is in place so it is just the interiors that need to be designed and installed.<< Animation. But besides that, using a 10 year old structure is going to require SOME construction, too. >New DVC? Are they building anything else at the moment? I don't believe there is anything else on the block at the moment but I'm way out of the loop on DVC.< No, just referring to BLT...which again, seemed superfluous when they already have more than enough DVC, and regular resorts, as well. >>>Boutique park? I'm still intrigued by the notion. Discovery Cove is performing adequately (it is hardly a barnstormer for Sea World) and I think layering in Disney story-telling and ABD-type experiences it could be a huge hit. However I do get nervous about charging for premium experiences - must as I hated the now-nixed idea of charging for Golden Fastpasses. The problem is the same as with theme parks in general though - massive capital expenditure and high running costs.<<< I am interested in it too...the level of story telling could really be incredible...but for that price? It seems to be a way to alienate a lot of WDW's guests. It doesn't "feel" right to charge more for one section of a park. >>Improve the PARKS!!!!!! This is why Harry Potter and Fantasyland Expansion are litmus tests for central Florida theme parks. If both of them meet or exceed expectations over the short and medium term then I'd expect to see additional capital expenditure at the other three WDW parks. The problem is justifying an new attractions if they aren't either bringing more people to the parks or spending more.<< I could see HP being a test...but FLE? What is it offering besides the one ride? It's not going to fare well in capacity, IMHO. Despite that, do you think that if they see results out of FLE they'll actually build a slew of rides like the planned for 2011...and got nixed?
Originally Posted By fkurucz >>Brazillans are buying in North America heavily right now. The Chineese already own about 30% of the States, the Japanese about 35% the Brits about 20% and Americans own about 2.5 %.<< Sure. That's why there are over 10 million unoccupied homes across the country. The housing bubble burst is far from over folks. Prices will continue to decline in most markets.
Originally Posted By MPierce >> My god, Pierce, you wasted a dalmations post on Pete Rummell. You've got to get on the stick. << I know. I was wrapped up in my own little pixie Dust coated World at the time Please forgive me.
Originally Posted By MPierce >> I agree. I think it would utter stupidity, if not suicide to attempt another park in FLA. They saw diminishing returns with Disney-MGM to some degree and by DAK it hit them square in the jaw. The one thing they don't need (well, more hotels and timeshares would be the first) is more parks to attempt to staff with 98% $8 an hr parttimers, while the other parks continue to fall apart. << They have to increase Park capacity somehow if they keep building out on resort hotels, and DVC units. It's a pi$$ poor business plan if they don't keep up with attendence growth. >> Disney is committed to building or selling every square inch of land they possibly can in FLA. And I think it is stupid and shortsighted. ,, They'll have a tougher time selling out the wet lands, but there are ways around that too. Now anyone is being a Pollyanna if they believe Disney any longer cares about encroachment on it's parks by commerical developers as long as they make money on it. >> I could argue that the more parks, more resorts, more everything Disney builds in FLA, they don't become more immune to risk, they become more exposed to it. << You only, I repeat, only make high gains when you take high risk. >> Of course it is. Look at all the parks Disney has. Look at Universal. Look at SW. This just isn't a growth market. << I disagree. The potential for growth is almost unlimited. It must be done wisely though, in short spurts as the economy dictates. Disney needs to develope a flexable 50 year plan rather than short term 5 year plans. First they must regain the original vision of Walt, and surround themselves with savvy dedicated people. Instead of running them off. >> REDUCE inventory, while adding an option for larger families that don;t give two $hits about Disney's Best-Kept Secret. << Short term yes, but long term no. >> And selling multi-million homes to the ultra-wealthy to use four months a year? When O-Town has 30% of its homes empty now (even in nicer areas)? It's just dumb. << I think there's a market for it, and it's going to sell if they have the right developers, and publicist involved. I wonder if Lee Mac knows who the project director is? What a dumb question. Of course he does. Hell he probably figured out all the financial angles on it. >> This is the type of business plan I'd expect from people with no vision who simply are pulling at straws instead of continuing to do what Disney has been successful at for decades: create the best in themed family entertainment. << I think it's risky, but the rewards will cement WDW as a World class luxury resort destination. >> Golden Oak (which sounds like a retirement village, no matter the history of the name) ain't it. << All they need to do is add Manor to the end of it. They look like they are committed to that name though. >> No more so than Go.com or the Anaheim Angels or DisneyQuest or FOX Family etc ... it just follows in the steps of 'doing something for the sake of it'. << It's called exploring the depth of your capabilities. >> Nope. I am quite familiar with Central FLA real estate and the folks you are speaking of. I just believe the amount of people wanting to 'invest' in an estate home next to FW and near the WDW warehouses and close to DD is a whole lot less than the geniuses who dreamed this one up believe it is. << I'm curious what the percentage of sales, and the time frame is on the sell out goal. I'm sure Lee Mac can't share that with us though, but I bet you he has it calculated down to the day. With 450 high end units I would not have any idea or guess what the projected time frame is on this. I just believe it will be a money maker. >> Yep. And the exclusive gated subdivisions -- many incomplete and looking like creepy half-built ghost towns -- tell me that nothing is close to a sure thing with real estate and that many folks who put down a deposit may have 2nd, 3rd and 18th thoughts well before it comes time to pay up fully and will walk away ... << High end units in a prime location do not fit into the norm of real estate sales though. Long Term real estate investments always win out as long as you have the capital to sit patiently if need be. I'm putting my money on Disney in this one.
Originally Posted By MPierce >> You win a LE WDI 'Little Squirt' pin from WoC's premiere, courtesy of Leemac. Congrats. And thanks for playing 'Know Your Former Disney Execs!' Back to you ... Dave. << I'm still waiting for the "Spirit Is My Hero" tee, I won for knowing that the lyrics you refered to in a post were from Ricky Nelson's Garden Party.
Originally Posted By MPierce >> I have never in my life come so close to trashing a hotel room. << I wouldn't have blamed you at all.
Originally Posted By dshyates I have to agree that properties in the multi Million $$$ range are off the chart for "regular" standards. Who knows how these properties will sell. There is a resort similar to this at The Greenbrier in WV and it hasn't done as well as hoped. Now I know you guys will dis a hilbilly development but just check out the place before you judge. It is one of the top 5 resorts in America. <a href="http://www.greenbrier.com/site/about.aspx" target="_blank">http://www.greenbrier.com/site...out.aspx</a> The Greenbrier is all about what the ULTRA-WEALTHY desire in a vacation home (including golf beyond compare). They recently developed a ultra-high end residential area and while selling at a modest level. They have fallen short of their goal. And I think that it is VERY comparable to what "Golden Oaks" has to offer. But then again I don't believe that Disney cares what I think. (until I win the lottery).
Originally Posted By MPierce >> I am interested in it too...the level of story telling could really be incredible...but for that price? It seems to be a way to alienate a lot of WDW's guests. It doesn't "feel" right to charge more for one section of a park. << That's why you have to make it into a 5th gate.
Originally Posted By dshyates Buy the way the home at The Greenbrier start at $1.15 M. Here is a link to the homes: <a href="http://www.thegreenbriersportingclub.com/The%20Land/" target="_blank">http://www.thegreenbriersporti...%20Land/</a>
Originally Posted By MPierce >> I have to agree that properties in the multi Million $$$ range are off the chart for "regular" standards. Who knows how these properties will sell. There is a resort similar to this at The Greenbrier in WV and it hasn't done as well as hoped. Now I know you guys will dis a hilbilly development but just check out the place before you judge. It is one of the top 5 resorts in America. <a href="http://www.greenbrier.com/site...out.aspx" target="_blank">http://www.greenbrier.com/site...out.aspx</a> The Greenbrier is all about what the ULTRA-WEALTHY desire in a vacation home (including golf beyond compare). They recently developed a ultra-high end residential area and while selling at a modest level. They have fallen short of their goal. And I think that it is VERY comparable to what "Golden Oaks" has to offer. But then again I don't believe that Disney cares what I think. (until I win the lottery). << Isn't the Greenbriar where the bomb shelter for our Government was located? Have you ever been to Snowshoe Mountain resort in WV Dave. I was wondering what that's like?
Originally Posted By MPierce >> Buy the way the home at The Greenbrier start at $1.15 M. Here is a link to the homes: <a href="http://www.thegreenbriersporti...%20Land/" target="_blank">http://www.thegreenbriersporti...%20Land/</a> << >> Oh, wait, I found one that starts at $1.1 Mil. << Should I use your name as a referal Dave?
Originally Posted By dshyates Yes, The Greenbrier is where the Congressional Bomb Shelter WAS. <a href="http://www.greenbrier.com/site/activities-detail.aspx?cid=2035" target="_blank">http://www.greenbrier.com/site...cid=2035</a> I used to work at Snowshoe in the Ski Patrol. It is a great ski resort by east coast standards. But after living in Denver for 11 years, I will take The Rockies any day. Do you ski, Mpierce? I have some great recommendations for winter resort fun, whether you ski or not.
Originally Posted By dshyates Here is a little history regarding The Bunker: "In the late 1950s, the U.S. government approached The Greenbrier for assistance once again. It wished to construct an Emergency Relocation Center-that is, a bunker or bomb shelter-for use by the U.S. Congress in case of war. Between 1959 and 1962, the classified, underground facility was built in conjunction with an above ground addition to the hotel, the West Virginia Wing. For 30 years, the owners of The Greenbrier—the railroad that eventually evolved into today's CSX Corporation-and the federal government agreed that, in the case of an international crisis, the entire resort property would be conveyed to government use, specifically as the emergency location for the legislative branch of Congress. Above ground, life proceeded normally as The Greenbrier upgraded the historic cottages, rebuilt The Greenbrier Course under the direction of Jack Nicklaus, added extensive conference facilities, hosted international golf matches (the Ryder Cup and the Solheim Cup) and, in short, did all the things necessary to stay competitive in the increasingly crowded luxury resort market of the 1980s and 1990s. But, because of the agreement with the government, most of the property was closed to residential development until the final closing down of the underground bunker in 1995."
Originally Posted By MPierce >> Do you ski, Mpierce? I have some great recommendations for winter resort fun, whether you ski or not. << I loved to ski, but I'm crippled up now, and can no longer do it. For anyone who's never been skiing it's fantastic.
Originally Posted By MPierce I saw a program on the History channel about Greenbriar, and the building of the bunker. It was amazing that they manage to do it, and keep it secret for the most part. A very impressive Hotel, and bunker.
Originally Posted By dshyates "A very impressive Hotel, and bunker" The Greenbrier is where the REALLY rich play. It is the only Resort I know of where falconry is considered an everyday activity. <a href="http://www.greenbrier.com/site/activities-detail.aspx?cid=96" target="_blank">http://www.greenbrier.com/site...x?cid=96</a>
