Originally Posted By trekkeruss <<With nemo's capacity pegged at 15k daily at the most, and more likely 13k to 14k in practice, anywhere from two thirds to three quarters of the day's guests will not be able to ride it - the ride's capacity just can't handle anywhere near the demand.>> I believe you are making a mountain out of a molehill. People rode the old subs. Some guests didn't get to ride it then either, because the queue was too long and they decided they didn't want to wait. This happens on almost every attraction. No one can ride every attraction at DL park in one day... you _always_ have to make sacrifices.
Originally Posted By Hans Reinhardt "The only people complaining will be those who hang out on message boards like these, or who post reports online." LOL. I seriously doubt that those will be the only ones complaining. Way back when I was a kid in the 70's we referred to the submarine attraction at WDW as “20,000 Leagues Under the Sun†because the wait was so terrible. It is because of gripes about waiting in long lines was the theme park division's number one complaint that Fastpass was created. They don't call it Disneyline for nothing.
Originally Posted By ChiMike >> The only people who WILL get a ride on 'nemo' are those intrepid enough to endure the two-plus hour wait. << You bring up great points, but I just see two over-riding points. 1) The exact same capacity issue had existed with the subs before and it didn't cause a revolt. Looking, rightfully so, at the daily capacity:daily attendance scenario you lay out, the same group in the past was not able to ride. More the reason to try again on the next trip. Looking at capacity from your angle, there are a number of rides that can't be done by the daily attendance. Including Splash. 2) People are going to decide whether the wait is worth the ride. The more people who don't want to wait for however many minutes, the less wait it is for everyone else. Supply & Demand. If they flew from Australia, they probably are going to have a higher wait time threashold. Again, it will work itself out. There will be upset people, but every person who wants to ride on their visit - WILL ride. No one will be cutoff. Assuming normal operations.
Originally Posted By Hans Reinhardt "An excellent point. Not only will walkways be slightly less crowded, but it will ease lines for food and other attractions." Wishful thinking. How will it reduce crowds if the new ride attracts more visitors, yet has low capacity. Judging by the best numbers only a very small percentage of the daily population will be able to ride the Subs on busy days.
Originally Posted By Hans Reinhardt "The exact same capacity issue had existed with the subs before and it didn't cause a revolt." No, but they closed it, right?
Originally Posted By trekkeruss The thinking is this: Let's say there are 50,000 guests in DL. Would overall wait times be lower with 60 rides, or 61?
Originally Posted By Hans Reinhardt ^^Right, but if you build a hot new ride, that 50,000 increases. Thus, the question is will the meager capacity of the new ride offset the increase in visitors to make the park less crowded. I highly doubt it.
Originally Posted By ChiMike >>Wishful thinking. How will it reduce crowds if the new ride attracts more visitors, yet has low capacity.<< That would be true if this was DCA, but DL is different. There was no Nemo ride in December and I still had never seen the park soooo crowded. It's really hard to dispute that opening up more capacity that the public has interest in (with folks on an attraction or standing in it's queue), allows for crowds to be further spread out. >>Judging by the best numbers only a very small percentage of the daily population will be able to ride the Subs on busy days<< I understand this and have agreed that this is the case. The thing that shouldn't be overlooked is that anybody willing to wait WILL ride. Not one person will be turned away. This is a theme park with lines. Those lines have just been easier to avoid in the past years. Like you said, in which I agree, the subs & 20K have always had bad lines. >>"The exact same capacity issue had existed with the subs before and it didn't cause a revolt." No, but they closed it, right?<< Yes, and while theoretical ride count ratios were a given reason why the ride was shut down it was one of only many. Long lines on their own did not close the ride, the cost per passenger was that one factor out of a number. Thankfully, they have learned that an entertaining use of a large space of the park is better than nothing. Especially a park that has issues with crowding.
Originally Posted By ChiMike >>^^Right, but if you build a hot new ride, that 50,000 increases. Thus, the question is will the meager capacity of the new ride offset the increase in visitors to make the park less crowded. I highly doubt it.<< I really think you are looking at that wrong. Especially coming from you Hans, with as passionately as you believe the SoCal market is already saturated. I think after the crowd level they have had over this last year, the nemo ride will not bring them that much higher. I'm sure there will be a positive increase from it's opening, but I have a hard time thinking it is going to bring more additional bodies that wouldn't be already coming (APs/fans) or that wouldn't be offset by an additional 1200 rph/13000 rp day in capacity.
Originally Posted By gadzuux I agree. But the ones that do come, especially the ones with children that have been jazzed about the new nemo ride on tv commercials and billboards, they're going to want to ride. >> The thing that shouldn't be overlooked is that anybody willing to wait WILL ride. << If the line is unusually long morning noon and night, park management would probably want to close the line about two hours before actual park closing. And they'd probably want to steer it away from the hub on days when they're offering fireworks. And I'm not sure that drawing from the experience of the old sub ride would be a fair comparison. When the ride first opened (1959?) I don't think the park was seeing the kinds of daily attendance numbers that they see in this era. And by the time the seventies and eighties rolled around, the subs weren't quite the draw that they used to be. The attraction itself was largely unchanged from the day it opened until the day it closed. And yet it still had some of the longest lines in the park - not due to it's popularity, but because of its abysmal capacity. So no - it's not the end of the world, but it is a real issue. An enormous new ride with revolutionary new technology that's suitable for all ages and featuring the one of the most popular characters ever - and only a fraction of the guests can be squeezed through on any given day.
Originally Posted By ChiMike Very good points. Regardless, it will be fascinating to see how this plays out.
Originally Posted By bravebrother Dont forget, Most families visiting the park usually have multiple day passes and will therfore have ample opportunity and several days to attempt to ride the subs. I cant see it being that big of a problem
Originally Posted By gadzuux >> Most families visiting the park usually have multiple day passes << I'm not sure what the percentages are, but plenty are still day-trippers. But either way it doesn't change much. What determines the length of the line isn't so much how many people are in the park as how long most people are willing to wait for a ride. I would think that a line would top out at about three hours, but I'm constantly surprised at just how many people are willing to wait that long and even longer. A nearby thread is reporting 210 minute queues for indy and space mountain at the recent 'grad nites'. Some people may be able to just shrug that off, but to me it says that disney management is overselling the park for these grad nights, and then making it even worse by only offering limited attractions, thus forcing people to either wait unreasonable times or just not ride at all. And that's "bad show". If I were at a specially ticketed event like grad night and wait times were posted at 210 minutes, I'd be kicking up a fuss too. Theoretically, if the park is selling grad night tickets at $50 a head, and they sell an additional 20,000 beyond available ride capacity, that's $100,000 in additional profit (plus in-park spending) without them raising their costs. And those people can just spend almost four hours of a six hour event standing in a queue. And pay $50 bucks for the privilege. With a scenario like the new nemo ride, there could easily be a three hour line whether the park has 20k guests or 60k guests, because line length is determined as much by what people are willing put up with as much as how many people are in the park.
Originally Posted By Hans Reinhardt "Especially coming from you Hans, with as passionately as you believe the SoCal market is already saturated. I think after the crowd level they have had over this last year, the nemo ride will not bring them that much higher." The market IS saturated. That has been proven. If the Subs are successful the same thing will happen next year as is happening now with the 50th Anniversary - DL will draw visitors away from Universal, Six Flags, etc. "An enormous new ride with revolutionary new technology that's suitable for all ages and featuring the one of the most popular characters ever - and only a fraction of the guests can be squeezed through on any given day." Precisely. Let's face it, DLR visitor patterns have changed greatly since the Subs had their heyday. People seem to forget that for most of its history the Subs operated under the old ticket book system, which meant that, unless you were willing to shell out extra cash for more E tickets, you were limited to only 5 E tickets per visit at best. Furthermore there weren't the legions of AP folks visting at the slightest whim back then either.
Originally Posted By Sweeper Perhaps they can now bring back the early entry mornings for hotel guests in Tomorrowland? That would be a good marketing plan for the hotels post 50th. I would personally like to see all FastPass machines turned off to force people to choose their few big rides. FastPass was NOT created for guest convenience...please. It was to free people up to spend money while waiting "virtually."
Originally Posted By gurgitoy2 A lot of good points brought up here on both sides of the issue. I think that even though there will be long lines due to low capacity, at least it's an addition to the park. Yeah, people will be waiting hours on line, but those people would have been in walkways or on other attractions before. It can only help the rest of the park with crowding...at least somewhat. And with no Fastpass, they are forced to be in the line and not shopping or in walkways. I also think that with it's low capacity, it will cause people to have to make multiple visits to the park in order to ensure a ride. At some point everyone will be able to ride. Before Fastpass, I also remember long waits...and if my family was not willing to wait that long, we skipped it for a later visit. You either dealt with waiting or just didn't ride. Yes, a higher capacity would be ideal, but like I said earlier, it's one more attraction instead of a "break even" or loss.
Originally Posted By fkurucz >>How many of them will tolerate a line that runs for anywhere from 90 minutes to over two hours?<< Look how many will stand in line for an houir to ride Monsters Inc. Remember how long the line was for Buzz? Eventually, the novelty will wear and the line will be shorter.
Originally Posted By DlandDug Does anyone actually believe that if FastPass is removed, all those locals who have been taking advantage of it will suddenly get in line for 90-120 minutes? It wasn't FastPass that created crowds at the stores and restaurants...
Originally Posted By partyhare Theme park rules are different today than they were years ago. Guests expect more, and will be less satisfied standing it a really slow moving long line, even though they will. Nemo subs has very wide appeal. While Splash, Star Tours, and Space Mt. were very popular when they opened, they did not have the demographic spanning appeal of Nemo and the subs. Kids will love Nemo and adults will want to ride the subs. Even compared to Monsters Inc. and Buzz, the subs are not another dark ride, so the uniqueness will make it more popular than those two. The old subs had terrible capacity, but not the same appeal as Nemo. My dad and I would ride the subs, but my sisters wouldn't want to wait so long for that, so they would wait for Dumbo instead. If it was Nemo, they would choose the subs. The subs are a great idea, but it is going to be shock for a lot of guests.
Originally Posted By Hans Reinhardt "It was to free people up to spend money while waiting "virtually." "But are the majority of the people doing that? I sure do not. I use the free time to experience other attractions. If what you say is true then the stores would be over-run with shoppers." "Eventually, the novelty will wear and the line will be shorter." I think that in most cases this would be true. With the Subs, however, it is a slightly different story because the capacity is so low and the attraction is considered E ticket caliber. This point was discussed on these boards back when the idea for bringing the Subs back first surfaced, but it now that the attraction is about to be a reality and a potential problem, everyone seems to have an opinion.
