Lutz 05/30 - Nemo Subs Capacity

Originally Posted By fkurucz

>>But in this circumstance the long lines aren't just due to the popularity of the new ride, but because the attraction itself is incapable of handling the demand. It's an inherent design flaw, and you can't expect the paying public to just chalk it up.<<

I don't know. Some people will see the long line and keep walking. Others will stand in line. As the the novelty wears off people won't wait and the line will become shorter. Buzz conmes to mind. Last March we never needed FastPasses (the wait was 10 minutes tops).

Remember Rocket Rods. An underwhelming (IMHO), low capacity ride that had a huge line throughout its short existence.

 

Originally Posted By trekkeruss

<<But in this circumstance the long lines aren't just due to the popularity of the new ride, but because the attraction itself is incapable of handling the demand.>>

I fail to see the difference. A long line is a long line, and two hours is two hours any way you slice it.

 

Originally Posted By Hans Reinhardt

"People should generally be aware that new rides mean long lines while it's the big thing and when it's not the big thing, it won't be a must-ride and not as big of a deal to miss in people's minds."

The thing that some people here seem to not understand is that the capacity problem is long-term, not just something that will have to be endured for the first year or so after the ride opens. Just for comparison consider Indiana Jones, which can accomodate up to 2400 guests per hour - twice what the Subs can handle.

 

Originally Posted By trekkeruss

^^ Many of the so-called e-ticket attractions frequenty have very short wait times. Even if they took half the jeeps offline, the wait would still be relatively short.

IMO, this is discussion is over. The attraction isn't ven running yet and won't be for another year, and people are freaking out about it. It's wasted energy.

 

Originally Posted By hopemax

I believe Soarin's capacity is about 1400 pph. Not much more than the subs, so I expect it will run about the same as it does in Epcot. If they had FP they would all be gone by 10AM, and most people are stuck in the standby line.

What works in the subs favor is that there are a ton of "must-do" attractions that will draw people away from the subs line (Indy, Space, Buzz, Pirates, HM, Splash). While at DCA and at Epcot, Soarin' is *the* must-do attraction. But the initial opening is going to be a zoo.

 

Originally Posted By berol

"IMO, this is discussion is over."

heh, I was thinking that when I was posting thru my sleepy haze earlier, cuz the posts are getting repetitive. But a zoo is a good idea!

 

Originally Posted By kmovies

I believe that we are really overestimating the number of people that will want to ride on any given day

50K attendance -
That is not 50K that are there open to close.

I don't know what the break down is, but it would be a mix of day trippers; multi day trippers and AP ers.

If you look at Cedar Point's attendance figure for the year, it is something over 3 million. If you look at it's coasters, you will typically see that most have annual ridership of 1 to 1.6 million. Therefore, in most cases, more people DO NOT ride a certain coaster on a typical day than DO RIDE.
I am sure that is the way it is at Disneyland too.
I believe there was a thread that had Buzz having about 5 million riders last year. That is far under Disneyland's attendance.

The lines may be long, but likely managable. I would believe that most people go to Disneyland and don't do everything they wanted for one reason or another (the line was too long, the ride was broken, we did this instead).

It should be fine. Unless the AP ticket holder rides it every single visit, it will leave room for day trippers.

Disneyland is a buffet. You may want the Turkey, Ham, Meatballs, Chicken, Fish, Beef and Ribs ... but in the end, choose your favorites and skip the others. If there's a long line for the Ham, you go and have Turkey instead and go home happy ... and full.

 

Originally Posted By trekkeruss

<<If there's a long line for the Ham, you go and have Turkey instead>>

The turkey is really emu.

 

Originally Posted By Dabob2

One other thing I noticed. If the subs capacity is 1200/hr, and that translates to only 20% of possible riders being able to ride on a high-attendance day... and Indy's capacity is 2400/hr... that would translate to only 40% of park goers on a high-attendance day that were able to do Indy, right? Less than half can ride the last great attraction the park put in.

There aren't any riots or complaints at City Hall about that, are there?

I think the lines will be nuts at first - and it will seem worse because that's a dull and slow-moving queue - but I don't see it as being a huge problem. The ones determined to ride will ride, and those who don't have the stomach to brave such a long line will ride it on their next visit.

 

Originally Posted By Hans Reinhardt

"There aren't any riots or complaints at City Hall about that, are there?"

Because Indy has been at DL for over ten years. Most locals, I would imagine, have ridden the attraction at least once and likely skip it until the next visit if the length of the wait is unreasonable. I'm sure people complained when it first opened, though. The lines were beyond belief.

 

Originally Posted By partyhare

A lot of people won't, and a lot of little kids can't ride Indy, or Space Mt., Star Tours, Splash. Great rides that do not have universal appeal because of their intense or perceived intense nature.

Nemo and the subs will attract almost every demographic, and the unique (being actually underwater)nature of the ride vs. the typical numerous dark rides will make it a big hit with kids and families. (Plus adults who already have a soft spot for the subs).

The capacity issue is a known fact since the subs are not a new ride. But Nemo makes the subs much more attractive, so the waits will be a unique issue at the park vs. the other E-tickets with fastpass, and the other family-friendly attractions without.

I don't see visiting guests complaining to City Hall, but they will be hot and the kids will be wiped out easier, and bummed for losing so much time.

I wonder if when the subs are running in the summer, the media will want to highlight the long line and capacity as the unhappiest part of the Happiest Place on Earth.

 

Originally Posted By Dabob2

<I'm sure people complained when it first opened, though. The lines were beyond belief.>

I remember. But I didn't complain.

That doesn't mean people won't. People complain at City Hall for the most trivial things, if CH CM's are to be believed (and I think they are). So sure they'll get complaints, especially when it's new. But I don't think it's going to be a big problem for DL as a whole.

Most people aren't as "wonky" as us about DL - they don't think in terms of capacity per hour and all that. They see a long line and either brave it or skip it.

To the average guest, I think the obvious alternative to a ride they want to do in the sub lagoon is NO ride in the sub lagoon.

 

Originally Posted By tiggertoo

I don't see the capacity issue as anything to be concerned about. Other popular attractions have even lower hourlies.

Why don’t people look at the bright side…if 1200-1500 guests are waiting for or are on Nemo, that’s 1200+ guests you don’t have to deal with elsewhere in the park. Just think, if Nemo wasn’t around these guests would be in other lines making those longer. The more attractions at DL, the better IMO.

 

Originally Posted By fkurucz

^^This is true. Of course, if attendance rises enough (because of the new attraction), then we will be worse off.

 

Originally Posted By woody

If the Nemo ride has a 2 hour wait, that means there are at least 3000 people in line waiting for the ride, thus taking out 3000 in other rides.

Great! I can now go to an empty DCA!!!

 

Originally Posted By Moderation

OK, so on a 60,000 visitor day the capacity is only for 20% of the visitors to hit the ride (well, more like 25%really- most 60KVDs the park is open more than 10 hours, plus there's early entry). But how many 60K days are there? And how many people in the park are there for only a single day? How many are APs who will have already seen it on a less crowded day? How many are handicapped and can't ride it anyway? Once the new ride smell wears off, the subs will be just fine, Just like all the other popular lower capacity rides.

 

Originally Posted By gadzuux

The only difference between a high count day (60+k) and a lower count day (20+k) is the overall percentage of that day's guests who will get a ride. I don't think a low capacity day would have a noticeable effect on the length of the line itself. This is because the demand will always far outstrip the attraction's capacity no matter how many people are in the park.

In other words, the length of the line is not determined by how many people are in the park, but by how long people are willing to wait for a ride. There will ALWAYS be more people who want to ride than can ride - even on the quietest days.

Which in turn means that it doesn't matter if the guest has a multi=day ticket or is visiting on quieter weekdays, or even if they wait six months or a year after opening.

Some here say that the demand will subside over time, because that's what's happened every time before. But this time is different. They've never opened a hugely ambitious "e-ticket" with such ultra-low capacity before.

Some people think it's 'no big deal' that tens of thousands of guests will come to the park every day wanting and expecting a ride on "the newest thing", with virtually no chance of getting it. Some will, most won't.

And the ride reviews will play an important part too. It will likely be one of three categories - "simply amazing", "so-so", or "what a waste".

It could be a smash hit, with beloved characters, upbeat music and the new technology of seeing animated characters literally 'floating' amidst real sets.

Or it could be weird, where the party's happening outside the portholes, and we're in here silently peering out at them - we're not partying at all, we're just spying on their fun from inside a gray austere metal tube.

Or it might not "work" at all - the turbulence issue affecting the visuals, the syncing of audio inside the sub with the animation out in the lagoon, or an audience that is expecting the sun moon and stars after waiting an eternity to board, and being disappointed because it wasn't worth the wait.

At this early stage of the game, there's just no tellin'.

 

Originally Posted By Hans Reinhardt

"And the ride reviews will play an important part too. It will likely be one of three categories - "simply amazing", "so-so", or "what a waste"."

This got me wondering... Is there any chance that the revamped subs will have some sort of synchronized movement and action along the course of the ride? Not as violent as Indy or Star Tours, of course, but I'm curious if something is being done to update the ride besides new scenes. Weren't there rumors about motion simulations being added to the subs for the Atlantis makeover?

 

Originally Posted By juicer

As with any e-ticket ride at Disneyland...If I know there will be a long line during the day (ie: Indy, Space, Splash, ect.) I will go on them when the park first opens or right before closing - No line...No problem - This will my plan for Nemo too

 

Originally Posted By gadzuux

It's time for ...