Originally Posted By SuperDry <<< But if you think they would EVER close any one of their theme parks for even one day of the week you are so danged far out of touch that there is no way I can help you. I'm not being a pie-in-the-sky wide-eyed optimist. I just know that there is absolutely no way in heck that ANY company would let their premiere brand go to hell. >>> I was with you for awhile RT, but it seems that you've gone off the deep end with the above. Let's take a hypothetical situation where they closed DAK one day a week, and DHS one day a week, and kept Epcot and MK open 7 days a week. I could easily see something like that happening if they were backed into a corner and felt that that was a good way to meet their earnings growth targets. That wouldn't be the end of the world, and I don't think contemplating such a contingency constitutes saying the sky is falling. Then you go on to equate such a scenario to Disney letting their premiere brand go to hell. You seem to have set up a false dilemma between considering cutbacks like this and thinking that everything is just great and there are no problems, and it's not clear to me why.
Originally Posted By fkurucz <<Take my advice folks... buy stock like crazy while the prices are CHEAP.>> And here is mine...beware of trying to catch a falling knife. Stocks are like to continue falling for some time. Sure there will be a few dead cat bounces along the way. A lot of people (including the chief economist of the Royal Bank od Scotland) are quite certain that there will be a severe downward adjustment (a fancy way of calling a crash) by the end of summer.
Originally Posted By fkurucz Also, being that we are entering a period of high inflation I would ditch stocks and buy precious metals (gold and silver coins). Unlike paper equities and fiat currency, precious metals cannot be conjured out of nothingness.
Originally Posted By SuperDry <<< Unlike paper equities and fiat currency, precious metals cannot be conjured out of nothingness. >>> But like those items, they can fluctuate wildly. Have you seen how much gold and silver have gone up in the past couple of years? It might not be the best idea to buy stuff after the price has gone way up, but rather to do so after the price has gone down.
Originally Posted By Spirit of 74 <<I was with you for awhile RT, but it seems that you've gone off the deep end with the above. Let's take a hypothetical situation where they closed DAK one day a week, and DHS one day a week, and kept Epcot and MK open 7 days a week. I could easily see something like that happening if they were backed into a corner and felt that that was a good way to meet their earnings growth targets.>> Exactly SD. No one is saying WDW is in danger of closing or even shuttering a park. What we're saying is there IS a contingency to close parks a day or two a week if there is a severe economic downturn to the point the resorts are having trouble filling rooms. What you'll see is things like 'For your convenience Adventureland will open at 11:30 a.m. today' or 'Ferrys to the MK are not operating today, for your convenience please take the WDW Monorail System' or 'Pecos Bill Cafe is not serving today, may we suggest Cosmic Ray's Starlight Cafe' etc ... Those are the first level type contingency plans along with trimming hours and staff. But, after that, you do get to park closings, which would likely be one day a week at DAK and DHS (only including EPCOT if things got dire) and MK would remain open seven days. This isn't as huge a deal as some make it out to be. If DAK is closed Tuesdays, Disney will get the word out. I just hope we don't get to that point because if we do it's going to mean very bad things for most Americans.
Originally Posted By bobbelee9 <<<What you'll see is things like 'For your convenience Adventureland will open at 11:30 a.m. today' or 'Ferrys to the MK are not operating today, for your convenience please take the WDW Monorail System' or 'Pecos Bill Cafe is not serving today, may we suggest Cosmic Ray's Starlight Cafe' etc ... >>> That does not sound the least bit convenient or enjoyable.
Originally Posted By vbdad55 While I agree that WDW is likely notinany trouble at this point - can you tell me what these companies have in common ? PanAm Xerox Wang US Steel Woolworth Westinghouse Electric InternationalHarvester Eastman Kodak Numerous RR companies they also had many employees and stockholders and at one time were industry leaders - worldwide sales leaders. They were traveling down the track also and never heard the woo woo of the train behind them. Let's hope we don't have to add GM and Ford to this list in 10 years.
Originally Posted By X-san ***Take my advice folks... buy stock like crazy while the prices are CHEAP*** Oh boy. Let's examine this theory a little closer before everyone goes out and opens a margin account, okay? IF you bought stock in FirstFed Financial six months ago at the "bargain" price of $36.10 (52 week high having been $59.45), your stock today is worth $8.57. Trust me when I tell you I could make a list like that hundreds of companies long. (too tired to do so, but there's a ton of stories like this one including some very prestigious and well known companies...at first I looked for Bear Sterns but their stock doesn't even exist anymore so I couldn't check the charts)
Originally Posted By Spirit of 74 <<That does not sound the least bit convenient or enjoyable.>> No, it doesn't. But that's what would happen if Disney attendance plummets. You'd also likely see FREE admission being tossed out if you were to stay on property if free DDP wasn't enough to fill rooms.
Originally Posted By X-san Also, if you bought a "safe" investment such as the whole market (S&P tracking SPYDERS or something) six months ago, you are about 12% less wealthy today. Maybe no biggie if you're in for the long haul, but still, it's pretty difficult to call market bottoms. People have been calling it "a bottom" ever since things started to crumble about a year ago.
Originally Posted By vbdad55 ^^^^^^^^^ agreed -- I could be wrong but I think the floor this time is further off than we'd like to think about.
Originally Posted By vbdad55 I took the risk and moved a lot of my 401K to very benign cash type accounts in January. I know this is not conventional wisdom -surely notwhat Fidelity recommended I do - but until I get a better feeling on interest rates that is where it's going to stay. If I miss some huge run up in the process - so be it. I believe a rapid rise in interest rates ( could happen with continued inflationary pressures) could do things to the market beyond what anyone wants to think about...
Originally Posted By X-san VB, very wise move. Did you get back to Fidelity on their "advice"? I'm sure you are better off today than most of their clients over the past 6 months lol.
Originally Posted By fkurucz <<People have been calling it "a bottom" ever since things started to crumble about a year ago.<< Beware of serial bottom callers. >>But like those items, they can fluctuate wildly. Have you seen how much gold and silver have gone up in the past couple of years? It might not be the best idea to buy stuff after the price has gone way up, but rather to do so after the price has gone down.<< If the Fed was serious about inflation I would agree that gold is overpriced. The reality is that the Fed and other Central banks are going to continue increasing money supply and keep interest rates super low to save banks from their mortgage follies. Big inflation is virtually certain, and with that gold will continue to rise.
Originally Posted By SuperDry <<< ***Take my advice folks... buy stock like crazy while the prices are CHEAP*** Oh boy. Let's examine this theory a little closer before everyone goes out and opens a margin account, okay? >>> So, you think it would be a mistake for someone to heavily margin their account and load up on, say, Spyders at this point?
Originally Posted By X-san I don't know. The chart looks bad, if you're into that sort of stuff. And of course, it depends on your time horizon. I would recommend caution, and dollar cost averaging personally. But of course heavily margining your position is a lot more fun.
Originally Posted By SuperDry <<< But of course heavily margining your position is a lot more fun. >>> That remains to be seen!
Originally Posted By fkurucz It will be interesting to see how low will the Dow (and Nasdaq and SP500 and..) will go. This time the Fed is out of ammo to prop up the stock market, unless they start paying people to borrow money. Or will we start seeing 2% fixed rate mortgages? Of course this would fan the flames of inflation even more. I suppose that once the SHTF that the Fed will admit defeat and raise interest rates a la Paul Volcker and slay inflation instead.
Originally Posted By vbdad55 <VB, very wise move. Did you get back to Fidelity on their "advice"? I'm sure you are better off today than most of their clients over the past 6 months lol< not to them, but I talk to others who are 'staying the course' and are taking a beating this year. Being less than 10 years from retirement, I wasn't going to just sit quietly and take it
Originally Posted By Fe Maiden ^^^I spent all day last Friday calling clients to see how they were doing emotionally with all the market volatility and bad economic news. Everyone was pretty optimistic and wanted to continue with the plans we designed, even the ones where we’re dollar cost averaging into the market. Although second quarter statements will be going out next week so I’m sure I’ll be hearing from my wife regarding her 401k.
