Originally Posted By davewasbaloo >>... and like all timeshare scam<< Not all ts's are scams. I love being a marriott owner, and so far my business case still stacks up in my fav vs investment. While it is not for everyone, this co-production model works for me!
Originally Posted By Skellington88 DVC is the biggest scam I ever heard of and am totally blown away that so many people got conned into it. But then again so many people got suckered into the fallacy that they can buy homes at high prices and then try to flip them for millions that it shouldnt surprise me.
Originally Posted By davewasbaloo Oh, I do not think DVC is as good a deal as Marriott, but if there are more than 4 people in your party, or you don't want to share bedrooms, then DVC is a good deal for people who always want to go to WDW. However, if a hotel room will do someone, then the business case does not stack up in their favour.
Originally Posted By Sport Goofy <<Perhaps, the resort would still be "recession-proof" and we wouldn't see this cost-cutting panic today.>> << That's very logical. >> That's not very logical at all. No matter how many ways you slice it, WDW is a leisure/luxury item. It will be among the first items people look to cut expenses when their families are out of jobs, salaries, pensions, etc. It is not possible for WDW to be "recession-proof." WDW has weathered the storm thus far because of 2 big factors: 1) Foreign tourists 2) Conventioneers 3) Inflation The foreign tourists will start to dry up now that the recession has gone global. The convention boost was largely an after-effect of Hurricane Katrina and massive amounts of Gulf Coast hotel inventory that went offline for conventions after that disaster. The convention business softens as Gulf Coast cities like New Orleans regain their convention stature. Price inflation was able to mask some other downtrends at the resort for the past couple of years as well. I suspect the days of price inflation are largely over. We're facing deflation risks across the economy and WDW will have to follow suit if things get substantively worse.
Originally Posted By danyoung >WDW has weathered the storm thus far because of 2 big factors: 1) Foreign tourists 2) Conventioneers 3) Inflation< Counting not among your stronger traits, SG? Sorry, I don't disagree with your post - I just thought that was funny . . .
Originally Posted By Sport Goofy I thought it was funny, too. I only had two on the list to start before i added the third. Oh well, proofreading is not my strongest suit.
Originally Posted By ChiMike >>That's not very logical at all. No matter how many ways you slice it, WDW is a leisure/luxury item. It will be among the first items people look to cut expenses when their families are out of jobs, salaries, pensions, etc. In 2008, yep you bet. We weren't talking about 2008, and thus weren't illogical. >>It is not possible for WDW to be "recession-proof."<< Wrong. It WAS possible, it just isn't anymore When WDW was a resort run by competent individuals it was ran as a upper-class vacation getaway. Disney's own reports to investors in the first two decades claimed that the business model in Orlando allowed for it to be recession proof. I can also personally verify that fact because I was there in the late 70's, 80's and early 90's. Hmm, I wonder why the wealthy of the world kept showing up back then? Pins? Free Buffets? Nemo shows? Don't think so. >>WDW has weathered the storm thus far because of 2 big factors: 1) Foreign tourists<< Absolutely true. Can't milk that segment anymore though. Ahh too bad. Now they will pay the price for being so short-sighted in their reinvestments into the property. In 2008, they can be very happy that they have all the DVC "members" hooked on the line. >>2) Conventioneers<< True. Picked up since 2001 but like the foreigners will now be scaled back. -- Without those two factors, I agree, they would be in a worse spot then they are now. But you completely missed my point. I said USE TO BE RECESSION PROOF. Without a doubt WDW no longer is. And they aren't because of the inept decisions year after year after year. Now years of exhibiting a short-term, reactionary, mindset has left them without that past dynamic. >> We're facing deflation risks across the economy and WDW will have to follow suit if things get substantively worse.<< I don't want to get into Macroeconomic discussions but I am far from as certain as you are. Disney might have to quit milking the price increases, but I don't think anyone knows for sure right now if we are heading towards the Carter years or another patch of deflation.
Originally Posted By Sport Goofy << When WDW was a resort run by competent individuals it was ran as a upper-class vacation getaway. Disney's own reports to investors in the first two decades claimed that the business model in Orlando allowed for it to be recession proof. I can also personally verify that fact because I was there in the late 70's, 80's and early 90's. >> I would like to receive these reports that claim "recession-proof." Disney has never been an upper-class vacation getaway. It's always aimed for the mass market. There aren't enough upper class in America to get 15 million people or so through the gates every year. There have been several articles written about Las Vegas' economic woes during this past year. One of the mian problems in Vegas right now is that they overbuilt expensive hotels and rooms for the "upper class." There never really was a market for those rooms or venues -- unless you had a market for a class of people who were just spending their home equity loan or other borrowed money. During this past year, Disney has specifically mentioned that they are doing better than places like Vegas because they have expanded their offerings in affordable rooms and venues instead of chasing after a class of people that doesn't exist once the debt pyramid scheme in the U.S. economy is gone.
Originally Posted By Sport Goofy << I said USE TO BE RECESSION PROOF. Without a doubt WDW no longer is. >> Hate to tell you, but I have some annual reports from 1982 and 1992, and 2002 that really disprove your theory there. Disney parks have always been cyclical with the economy.
Originally Posted By sharpc Everything is always going to go along with the economy. Things are always influenced by the amount of money that people are spending whether it be WDW, DL, or good 'ol Wal-Mart.
Originally Posted By Spirit of 74 <<Things are always influenced by the amount of money that people are spending whether it be WDW, DL, or good 'ol Wal-Mart.>> Yep, you sure want to see Disney and WalMart in the same sentence ...
Originally Posted By Spirit of 74 <<I said USE TO BE RECESSION PROOF. Without a doubt WDW no longer is. And they aren't because of the inept decisions year after year after year. Now years of exhibiting a short-term, reactionary, mindset has left them without that past dynamic.>> Exactly. Now every little blip affects them ... from Delta or Air Tran cutting flights at MCO ... or gas going up a dime ... or a tropical storm 2,000 miles away ... Disney simply is always reacting instead of acting. This started well over a decade ago ...
Originally Posted By Sport Goofy << Now every little blip affects them ... from Delta or Air Tran cutting flights at MCO ... or gas going up a dime ... or a tropical storm 2,000 miles away ... Disney simply is always reacting instead of acting. >> By that measure, Disney should have been affected throughout the past year as the economy slowed, oil prices soared, airline flights were cut, etc. Your statement is entirely imaginary because WDW has remained surprisingly resilient throughout the spring and summer while other tourist destinations, e.g. Las Vegas, have suffered quite a lot. We're only facing the biggest financial crisis in 80 years. You think Disney is not going to be affected? There is absolutely nothing that Disnye can do or could have done to avoid being impacted by the severe recession that is on the way. You think cutbacks are unreasonable given the current economic climate? In an environment where lending has pretty much ceased, the smart companies will horde cash until liquidity returns to the financial system. No one knows how long that is going to take. In a cash flow intensive busines like WDW, I'm surprised they haven't cut back further to prepare for the absolute worst case scenario. The amount of money that WDW needs just to keep the lights on is scary in an economy that is on the brink of collapse.
Originally Posted By sharpc "Yep, you sure want to see Disney and WalMart in the same sentence ..." Comparison purposes only. Would Disney and Parisian's better suit the analogy?
Originally Posted By sharpc Exactly. Ah, lets not look into the analogy! I think we all kind of know what I was getting at! I'm going to have to look at my comparisons a little more closely from now on!
