Originally Posted By a1stav Let's consider this scenario, I don't know the exact numbers only Disney does. Cost per turnstile click is what effects the bottom line and the guest experience. If that "average" AP holder is paying a cost per click of about $25. Disneyland and DCA had a combined annual attendance in 2009 of 21 million visits or "clicks". Their is 900,000 AP holders each going an average of about 12 times per year = 10.8 million clicks. That means that Disneyland is getting about 5.1 million visits from non-passholders. Let's say that the average non-passholder visits on a three day hopper that equils $62 per day. Then there is the remaining that are spending $72per day to visit. That means that half of the visitors are getting in for about $25 per click and the other half are getting in for about $65 per click. If you average it together then the average price per click at Disneyland is $45 per visit. Really close to my $50 per day price point that I proposed earlier. Looking at it another way the three day per year visitor from out of town is subsidizing the AP holder to the average of $20 per day. How to average the cost out to across the visitors more evenly, double the cost of the AP and lower the cost of the single and multi-day tickets, don't create such a gap. Disney will win, the out of town visitor will win, the only one that would not is the local AP holder that is used to getting in for next to nothing, before the AP program everyone paid the same price and Disneyland did very well, it will do very well with a double priced AP and lower cost single and multi-day ticket.
Originally Posted By Terminus APs cost twice as much (all at once). So let's see... 100,000 AP holders each going an average of about 12 times per year = 1.2 million clicks. Hm... I wonder if they can make up the 9.6 million clicks lost by getting 14.7 million clicks by non-passholders? All of this is silly... How many people would still buy APs if they doubled? How would you know? How many more people would come or come more often if the daily price was halved? How can you prove that? If Disney is doing so well, even in this bad economy... Let's completely change the way they do it!
Originally Posted By Terminus >> I don't know the exact numbers only Disney does. << This is the most important sentence in that whole post... This would all be much easier and have a lot less guessing and math involved if everyone just said: "Halve my price and charge everyone else twice as much!"
Originally Posted By a1stav ^^^ Not a fair statement at all, it is obvious that AP holders pay lot's less per day than single or three day visitors. They end up paying about 1/3rd the price. I based all my numbers on what information that is publicly available. AP holders don't have to pay 1/3 the amount as everybody else to make a successful business model. I have sited Tokyo Disneyland as an example. They make tons of money, spend huge amounts in capital improvements and have great attendance.
Originally Posted By a1stav This discussion is about ticket options that Disney is thinking about. If there is no room for improvement than why would Disney consider any changes at all?
Originally Posted By Terminus Season Ticket Holders to the Dodgers pay 1/2 what I do per game. Not fair! So... How many people would still buy APs if they doubled? Half as many to even it out? Would that half spend twice as much IN the parks when they visit to even the income out? Or are three times as many 1 day visitors showing up if the one day is cheaper? Any surveys on the subject? Where's the math on that? It's weird. I thought Tokyo Disneyland was in Japan? Wouldn't that be a completely different culture and customer? I could see APs doubling in price... I guess it could happen if it made business sense. I can't see the one day price EVER getting cut in half. Why would they ever feel the need to do that? Unless non-annual pass visitors just decided to stop coming, which doesn't seem to be an issue so far...
Originally Posted By a1stav Yeah, you're right everyone loves the price hikes at Disneyland just read the comments here. <a href="http://ocresort.ocregister.com/2009/08/05/save-money-on-disneyland-annual-passes/13331/" target="_blank">http://ocresort.ocregister.com...s/13331/</a>
Originally Posted By Terminus Exactly. So let's double the APs and see who shows up. If they're all freaking about deluxe annual passes increasing $20... Let's try a $289 increase and see how that goes over. Good idea!
Originally Posted By Terminus It would probably make the parks a LOT less crowded... So I guess some people would win! Probably not Disney, though.
Originally Posted By a1stav No backlash at all on the increases of the day pass. <a href="http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_co/2010/08/disneyland-raises-ticket-prices.html" target="_blank">http://latimesblogs.latimes.co...ces.html</a>
Originally Posted By Terminus I wonder if Disney reads that blog... I'm sure they're just monitoring ticket sales and attendance figures. If there really is a backlash, then we'll soon see them reacting by lowering the price or offering specials or deals. Being there three or four times in the last two weeks, it seems like a normal, "non-summer" crowds so far... It could just be all annual passholders enjoying their 1/3 price per visit tickets...
Originally Posted By SpokkerJones "How many people would still buy APs if they doubled? Half as many to even it out?" It depends on the "elasticity of demand." For example, if the price of an annual pass doubled, and the quantity of annual passes sold decreased by more than double, than you would say that the elasticity of demand for an annual pass is "elastic," meaning that price changes result in a larger change in quantity sold. If the quantity sold decreased by less than half, you would say that annual passes are "inelastic," meaning that they do not respond as much to changes in price. Annual passes are probably elastic since they are a luxury. Things like gasoline are inelastic, since they are a necessity. That's how OPEC gets us. They raise the price and we may buy less, but not much less. "Or are three times as many 1 day visitors showing up if the one day is cheaper?" Same as above. One day passes are probably relatively more elastic than annual passes (annual passholders are probably more likely to be hardcore fans and could not go without their Disneyland fix and are willing to pay more). So if annual pass prices are raised and the price of 1-day passes are decreased, I believe total revenue would increase, but that's just based on my simple theory. Disneyland has high-powered MBAs that are much smarter than I am "Where's the math on that?" Burbank and Team Disney Anaheim, probably.
Originally Posted By SpokkerJones "All of this is silly... How many people would still buy APs if they doubled? How would you know?" You would know by collecting data and applying the appropriate statistical methods.
Originally Posted By Terminus Makes a lot of sense... The main question for me is: >> (annual passholders are probably more likely to be hardcore fans and could not go without their Disneyland fix and are willing to pay more). << How much more? =) We need a poll to ask people, would you pay double? I have a feeling the sticker shock of that would make most people say "No". I'm serious ... Read the comments in the "Blog" people left about how they're not going to accept the minor increases that happened in August and are not going to renew. I think some of them are lying, but I have to believe a big chunk of APers would really not renew at double. This is all my opinion, of course. Maybe I'm giving Disney more credit than they deserve, but if they could make more money by raising AP prices by 100%, wouldn't they? Seems like they've never been shy about raising prices to what they think they can get in the past...
Originally Posted By Terminus >> You would know by collecting data and applying the appropriate statistical methods. << So you're saying you wouldn't know by just guessing and throwing numbers out there? Sounds right to me.
Originally Posted By SpokkerJones "We need a poll to ask people, would you pay double?" Polls can be helpful but people also lie or fail to accurately assess their own willingness to pay. Data about revealed preference (simply observing what people do) is more helpful. I agree that you should not double the price of an annual pass overnight, but gradually raise the price instead. "Read the comments in the "Blog" people left about how they're not going to accept the minor increases that happened in August and are not going to renew." Between the two articles there are what, 100 comments? There are a million annual passholders. Usually the most vocal posters are the ones who are the most unhappy. "I think some of them are lying, but I have to believe a big chunk of APers would really not renew at double." A HUGE chunk would not, you are correct. That's sort of the point. What I'm wondering is whether or not the conditions are such that an increase in 1-day visitors would equal or exceed the loss in passholders and passholder revenue. I'm also wondering what those conditions would have to be to result in that outcome. I have an idea, but it would require time, research and access to data I don't have. "So you're saying you wouldn't know by just guessing and throwing numbers out there? Sounds right to me." You wouldn't know for sure, but you can gain insight by building a model based on reasonable assumptions and then see how that model reacts to changes in your assumptions. It's all speculation.
Originally Posted By mickeymorris1234 No, the most silly thing is - AP holders are all saying, its to crowded, its to crowded - are you still going? Did you renew? If Disney did double the price of your pass and you could only go once a year now how angry would you be? Plus all of us saying, raise the prices - Really? Disney is making more money than ever thought possible in todays current economy because of the pricing options they have. In 2009 US Disney Parks brought in 1.2 billion dollars for the company (what actually equates to profits I would have to look into a little more) Obviously they have a good thing going for them and for you! We are the minority of Disney AP holders, Disney is looking at years of experience with the program and knowledge of what make AP holders tick. The better question is, what is Disney seeing in the future that we are not seeing. Why is Disney considering lower ticket options for guests? I can tell you it isn't because Spokkler (no offense your name was just on this page more ) doesn't like how crowded it is at the parks and they are getting back at him, it isn't because they want to push parks past their limits and have 900,000 unhappy AP holders. No they are anticipating something and they are getting ready, just like they did with the monthly payments. They new that if they didn't do something they would loose a bunch of AP holders and loose a bunch of money, thus payment plans were born. Lastly all of us saying raise the prices, these people shouldn't be allowed into Disneyland so much, REALLY!!! Talk about being a jerk! We should remove a person's opportunity to go to Disneyland just because some AP holders are upset because people are coming and enjoying the park!? Nothing says welcome to the happiest place on earth like, your too poor to associate with our high paying AP holders come back and see us in a few years when you've saved more and deserve that pass.
Originally Posted By SpokkerJones I believe the prices on annual passes should be raised, but that the prices on 1-day passes should be lower. If prices on 1-day tickets were lower, then poorer families could enjoy a day at the park, families that can't afford even the cheap annual passes.
Originally Posted By Terminus For the record, I've never complained about how busy the park is when I go. Being an AP holder, I always figure I can come back on a less busy day. =) It's the people that spend $2000 flying in and staying at a hotel for three days that are the ones complaining about crowds, I think. I can understand their side of it, too.
Originally Posted By SpokkerJones Here's why raising the price of annual passes would do absolutely nothing to prevent poor people from visiting the park. Right now, at this second, the lowest price you can pay to visit Disneyland is $68 at the box office. Why, then, would raising the price of a $184 annual pass have any effect on a poorer family? They can't even afford the $68! The price of an annual pass is not depriving them of Disneyland, the price of a 1-day ticket is. You can raise the price of an annual pass by 25% ($230) and lower the price of a 1-day pass by 25% ($51) and more people are able to afford a day at Disneyland. Only in this scenario, you won't have as many annual passholders visiting 5, 10, 20 or 50 times. I mean, you tell me, who derives a greater benefit from a visit to Disneyland, a child on his or her first visit or an annual passholder's hundredth visit *this* year?
