Originally Posted By Yookeroo "That is a problem. What happens if the number of FP's to the day guest population is reduced by 50% because of hotel guests pre-booking?" Where did you get this 50% number from? And if it's accurate, are you sure the guests will notice? "What does a day guest say or do when they realize that a hotel guest is getting information and/pr perks thru a Smart phone and a bracelet that they have no access to?" The same way they reacted to EMH? "And if 5 or 10 years down the road when Next Gen has been a part of the parks for that long does anyone really think Disney will scrap it all?" Maybe. Or maybe tweak and adjust until it does work? There are lots f wys to implement this. There likely a spot where it increases bookings without pussing off the offsite guest too much. "Once again, I don't think Disney will fail, but I honestly believe that Disney is at its most vulnerable at the moment because of its size and the decisions it is making." Yeah, the immense popularity of the parks is making them extremely vulnerable.
Originally Posted By Dr Hans Reinhardt "And if 5 or 10 years down the road when Next Gen has been a part of the parks for that long does anyone really think Disney will scrap it all?" Why wouldn't they?
Originally Posted By sjhym333 I find it interesting that EMH keeps being thrown up here. EMH is a very very different thing. EMH does not really affect a day guest. EPCOTs hours are 9 to 9 everyday. Has been for many years. A non Disney hotel staying guest is paying for 9 to 9. The extra hours doesn't have any impact on regular operating hours. Hence the "extra". I had no problems saying to a guest that the park was closing a 9pm to all guests but we offer a special treat to our resort guests. Next Gen is a completely different thing. It will happen during regular operating hours and has the potential to have an effect on every guest in the park. I have said what I need to about this subject. Don't mind discussing Next Gen...which I do know something about...but not a fan of when every sentence you say is torn take apart. That is not a discussion.
Originally Posted By Mickeymouseclub DVCNEWS.com has a very detailed topic about the new FastPass+Testing about to begin ( testing again ) at WDW. <a href="http://www.dvcnews.com" target="_blank">http://www.dvcnews.com</a> I wonder how they are factoring in guest movement as they enter the parks. Do you follow tradition and enter straight forward into Fantasyland or veer to the left for Adventure or to the right for Tomorrowland. ..I am thinking this could have an impact on the length of the FP lines for everybody. Also should your planning follow the crowd mentality and your day planning goes with the WDW extra hours calendar or against it ? And what about the daily weather impact? Currently WDW keeps having problems with transportation movement around the parks and system-wide technological crashes causing delays and frustrations. I also wonder about the guest survey response: I imagine my response would probably be magical just cause I would have felt special to be included! And for those not invited feelings of resentment...Just how important/reliable is that guest survey anyway? So visit that site and pretend you are trying to FP+ your next Disney trip. I am curious to know how you would make those plans!
Originally Posted By Kennesaw Tom <<ORDDU: I agree with you sjhym333, duckling. It's all too easy to make wrong assumptions and overlook important details when you think you're too big to fail.>> There is also an element here, where the left hand doesn't know what the right hand is doing. No one within the Disney organization seems to know just what Next Gen is, or will be. It is all speculation so far. In the past when Disney was spending $1 Billion USD, EVERYONE knew what it was being spent on, a ship, an island, Lucas Film, a resort in Hawaii, new parks in China, park expansion in the MK. No one was in the dark. With Next Gen, everyone is in the dark. It's hard to promote something when you don't know just what your promoting. And, to some extent Peter is robbing Paul. The price tag for Next Gen is way over budget. Money that could have been and should have been used elsewhere. It is kind of an insult for the Next Gen folks spending like crazy, when the WDW parks are getting stale and with the growing cutbacks at WDW.
Originally Posted By SuperDry <<< I find it interesting that EMH keeps being thrown up here. EMH is a very very different thing. EMH does not really affect a day guest. EPCOTs hours are 9 to 9 everyday. Has been for many years. A non Disney hotel staying guest is paying for 9 to 9. The extra hours doesn't have any impact on regular operating hours. >>> Oh, but that's not true. The regular operating hours of a park at WDW tend to be much busier on EMH days. So, offsite guests don't get fewer hours because of EMH, but they do get longer lines if they don't avoid parks on EMH days. This is exactly the kind of unanticipated side effect that I think many people are talking about with respect to NGE. And like EMH crowding, it may not be obvious to the casual observer as to what the underlying cause of the problem is, but they'll definitely notice the effect. And, to the CM that said that special NGE FP's won't reduce the number of FP's available day-of at the park, for that to be true, that means an increase in the FP-to-standby ratio for each attraction, which presumably has been fine-tuned over time already.
Originally Posted By Dr Hans Reinhardt "There is also an element here, where the left hand doesn't know what the right hand is doing. No one within the Disney organization seems to know just what Next Gen is, or will be." Bob Iger, Jay Rusalo and the folks designing and programming the tech know what it is. This a secretive start-up project that Disney isn't ready to discuss, and is purposely retaining information until the right time. "The price tag for Next Gen is way over budget. Money that could have been and should have been used elsewhere. It is kind of an insult for the Next Gen folks spending like crazy, when the WDW parks are getting stale and with the growing cutbacks at WDW." I agree. However, I wouldn't expect that Disney would dump a billion + dollars on new attractions at WDW if they weren't spending it on NextGen.
Originally Posted By Yookeroo "Oh, but that's not true. The regular operating hours of a park at WDW tend to be much busier on EMH days. So, offsite guests don't get fewer hours because of EMH, but they do get longer lines if they don't avoid parks on EMH days. This is exactly the kind of unanticipated side effect that I think many people are talking about with respect to NGE. And like EMH crowding, it may not be obvious to the casual observer as to what the underlying cause of the problem is, but they'll definitely notice the effect." Right. And I don't get the idea that something only counts as having an impact if it only happens directly and at the park. Nor do I get the jump to the worst conclusion. A weird assumption. I'd be pretty shocked if Disney implemented this in a way that sucked up 50% of the FPs. "And, to the CM that said that special NGE FP's won't reduce the number of FP's available day-of at the park, for that to be true, that means an increase in the FP-to-standby ratio for each attraction, which presumably has been fine-tuned over time already." True. But this is only a problem on attractions that "sell out" of Fastpasses. I don't know how often this is the case. Obviously Soarin' & Midway Mania will see an impact. And the big headliners on busy days. I have no idea on the rest. Presumably, and I'm just guessing here, Disney may have actually researched this. And while SuperDry is right about unintended effects, I bet they have more data informing their decisions than we do. "It is kind of an insult for the Next Gen folks spending like crazy, when the WDW parks are getting stale and with the growing cutbacks at WDW." Insult to whom? You're talking within he company, right?
Originally Posted By FerretAfros >>"And, to the CM that said that special NGE FP's won't reduce the number of FP's available day-of at the park, for that to be true, that means an increase in the FP-to-standby ratio for each attraction, which presumably has been fine-tuned over time already." True. But this is only a problem on attractions that "sell out" of Fastpasses.<< It will end up affecting all attractions with FP. For example, consider a theoretical attraction right now that allows 1,000 FP users who get them from the machine that day, and 1,000 standby guests on board each hour. With FP+, the number of FPs handed out at the machines will remain at 1,000 per hour. Meanwhile, there will also be some handed out in advance (let's say 500 per hour) to FP+ users. The leaves only 500 spaces per hour for the standby line to fill. Even if the FPs from the machine don't run out hours in advance, they are almost all gone a couple hours ahead of time, meaning that each time block is effectively full. It's only the late evening hours that tend to remain, and that is still somewhat unusual. Basically, if you're using FP now, your experience will be essentially the same (though your return wait will likely be longer, with the additon of FP+ guests). It's the folks waiting in the standby queue who are really losing out here
Originally Posted By FerretAfros >>DVCNEWS.com has a very detailed topic about the new FastPass+Testing about to begin ( testing again ) at WDW. <a href="http://www.dvcnews.com<<" target="_blank">http://www.dvcnews.com<<</a> Interesting stuff. But again, I'm not sure how it's all going to work out in reality. For example, I have booked a trip in January through a travel agent, since I was able to get a much better price for it. They've made sure to have all of my information well ahead of time, so that they are able to process it, and send me what I need. Now, what about all of this hyper-customized FP stuff? As far as I know, Disney has almost no information about me for this upcoming trip (because of the little information I gave to the travel agent) compared to when I book directly through them. I'm staying on property; how am I supposed to partake in FP+? There are other things in there that appear to be issues that can hopefully be worked out along the way. I'm really not sure that each time window needs to be an hour, and that they can't overlap any. For some attractions, this makes sense (Kilimanjaro Safari for example takes a long time to ride and is a hike from most other attractions in the park), but not all of them (Dumbo won't take an hour if you have it scheduled between other FL attractions). This seems like the kind of thing that will be worked out along the way as real people test it in the park. Heck, why not have a four hour window to do your four attractions in, giving you the flexibility to do them in an order that suits you, and allow time for other experiences in between?
Originally Posted By Mickeymouseclub One thing to remember: WDW had to respond to their guests paying for the Deluxe resort stay and having to deal with all the school/ sports/cheer/dance/ groups gobbling up all the FP's. Just this past week I witnessed an even newer "group" aspect that many guests were appalled by. Not only are these groups arriving enmasse but they march in unison with the coach in front encouraging and creating this new "style" . As I arrived early at Epcot and was coming down the monorail ramp I watched these groups arriving from the bus drop - off. Marching and chanting loudly taking a certain amount of steps forward and then backward. Repeating the pattern the entire way with one school group then a space separating each different school group but following the same style. All in unison and very powerful. I felt as if they were being trained as future mobs and not so innocent . It was the first time i have witnessed this. I have witnessed the chanting and cheering groups in the HS as we all waited for Fantasmic in past visits. This was new to witness. Disney needs these school groups to "visit" because they bring entire families along and they spend a lot of money on stuff. It is amazing to watch all the stuff they are purchasing before Fantasmic starts , thinking nothing of handing over $50 dollar bills to their children. So Disney keeps them in the value/convention resorts...and had to come up with a way to keep the Deluxe guests happy also. One way or another the FastPass+ Next generation will be a money maker for them.
Originally Posted By mangogirl yes, this 1.5 million could also be used to give the lowly 8.00 - 11.00 an hr a good and decent pay raise!
Originally Posted By SuperDry <<< yes, this 1.5 million could also be used >>> You're off by 100,000%: It's 1.5 *B*illion that has been spent!
Originally Posted By Dabob2 <Disney isn't stupid, they're investing in what will likely pay off big time.> Perhaps. But you know what they say about the best laid plans of mice (and The Mouse) and men. See also: go.com Of course, it might do exactly what they're hoping for. We'll see. <It will end up affecting all attractions with FP. For example, consider a theoretical attraction right now that allows 1,000 FP users who get them from the machine that day, and 1,000 standby guests on board each hour. With FP+, the number of FPs handed out at the machines will remain at 1,000 per hour. Meanwhile, there will also be some handed out in advance (let's say 500 per hour) to FP+ users. The leaves only 500 spaces per hour for the standby line to fill.> Not necessarily. If the 500-per-hour FP+ passes also have a specific one-hour window (and it's enforced), the in-park FP machines could just issue only 500 per hour themselves, adding up to the same 1000 as previously. Thus, the standby to fastpass ratios would remain the same (in this scenario). What that would mean is that there would be fewer machine-issued regular fp's issued per hour, and per day, and thus they would "sell out" earlier. Thus the big loser would not be the standby rider per se, but those who come to the parks later after all the fp's are gone. (Or, arguably, any offsite visitor who wants to get multiple fp's in a given day.) In that scenario, it would probably discourage parkhopping, as people would catch on to the idea that if you go to a 2nd park late in the afternoon, all the fp's could be gone.
Originally Posted By SuperDry <<< Not necessarily. If the 500-per-hour FP+ passes also have a specific one-hour window (and it's enforced), the in-park FP machines could just issue only 500 per hour themselves, adding up to the same 1000 as previously. >>> That certainly could be the way it works, but it was reported earlier in this thread that a CM specifically said that NGE/FP+ would not reduce the number of FPs available day-of to regular guests. Altering FP is zero-sum game: for every additional FP+ they add, they either a) have to reduce the number of regular FPs issued, or b) reduce the daily standby capacity of the ride. They can't have both. The only way I can see FP+ not affecting non-participating guests is that if guests that can get a FP+ in advance are not allowed to also get them in the park, and each FP+ issued reduces the number of in-park FP's by one. This would be close to allowing advanced booking of FP's for eligible guests while not impacting regular guests. Another wildcard factor that will be almost impossible to estimate correctly until the system is deployed is the breakage rate. That is, how many FP+'s issued in advanced will go unused when the time comes, as opposed to those issued in the park as they are now? I would guess the number would almost certainly be higher, but how much higher?
Originally Posted By Dabob2 <That certainly could be the way it works, but it was reported earlier in this thread that a CM specifically said that NGE/FP+ would not reduce the number of FPs available day-of to regular guests.> I know, but if these boards have taught us anything, it's that cm's don't always have the straight story. Could be true, could be false. There are a lot of ways adding in fp+ to regular fp could work in practice, and we're sort of all feeling them out here. <Altering FP is zero-sum game: for every additional FP+ they add, they either a) have to reduce the number of regular FPs issued, or b) reduce the daily standby capacity of the ride. They can't have both.> Exactly. <The only way I can see FP+ not affecting non-participating guests is that if guests that can get a FP+ in advance are not allowed to also get them in the park, and each FP+ issued reduces the number of in-park FP's by one. This would be close to allowing advanced booking of FP's for eligible guests while not impacting regular guests.> That seems fairest to me as well. If you're offered fp+ as a perk for staying on site, it seems churlish to complain that you can't get regular fp's as well. Of course, it doesn't mean some people won't still complain. How many fp+'s are supposed to be given to onsite guests? That's a number they could also fiddle with once it goes into practice. <Another wildcard factor that will be almost impossible to estimate correctly until the system is deployed is the breakage rate. That is, how many FP+'s issued in advanced will go unused when the time comes, as opposed to those issued in the park as they are now? I would guess the number would almost certainly be higher, but how much higher?> That's a good question, and I would guess it would be higher also. How much higher is something they'll have to gauge once it goes into effect.
Originally Posted By SuperDry <<< How many fp+'s are supposed to be given to onsite guests? That's a number they could also fiddle with once it goes into practice. >>> It also could be dynamic. If they require FP+ to be booked no later than the day before, then they could set a maximum number of FP+ per attraction per day (in order to always allow at least some in-park FPs). Once those are all allocated, they're gone for FP+ booking. Then, the in-park FPs could be issued based on the permanent allowance for such, plus the number of FP+ slots that were not taken (perhaps even down to the time interval). This would not be hard to accomplish with all of the IT horsepower being put toward this project. All of this boils down to who is in charge of the project, and who the appointed decision-makers are. If they focus only on the expected ROI, and the technical details of the implementation, it could be very easy to overlook the nuances of what the business rules need to be to make it all work once deployed, and/or it would be easy to make poor decisions if they are being made by someone that doesn't have a thorough understanding of the human factors and system dynamics of FP. Take this micro example of FP+ vs FP, and extrapolate that to all of the other aspects of NGE. It could be a home run that makes some guests very happy, others indifferent, and makes a lot of money. Or it could be a disaster at every turn. Or somewhere in between. The most obvious answer is "somewhere inbetween" but how close to one extreme or the other will they get? Only time will tell.
Originally Posted By FerretAfros >>The only way I can see FP+ not affecting non-participating guests is that if guests that can get a FP+ in advance are not allowed to also get them in the park, and each FP+ issued reduces the number of in-park FP's by one.<< I hadn't thought of this, but I do like the sounds of it. Of course, it's tough to say how many FPs a normal guest is 'allowed' to get in a day now (4 seems about right though), so it would be tough to reduce the number that FP+ users are 'allowed' to get while they're in the park, but that does seem like a pretty good idea. And since everything is going to be linked to a unique RFID chip for each guest, it would be really easy to block them from the in-park FP machines. That way, the FP+ numbers could come from the current FP allotment, making it more-or-less even for the people who just show up first thing in the morning. Yah, it will be harder to get FPs, but it really won't be much worse (theoretically) in the standby line than it is right now. And another theoretical question: what if you know you're going to miss your FP return window? With the current paper-based system, it's easy to give your FPs to another group of guests in the park (perhaps ones you've met in line or while waiting for a show...or just leave them somewhere hoping someone will pick them up). If FP+ is linked to the RFIDs (the link said that there was seemingly no paper confirmation involved), then it would be a lot tougher to hand FPs off to different people. Yes, the standby line will move faster as a result, but it just takes away a magical moment between guests. (It could also make it difficult for families to split up, ifor example f Dad and Suzie would have used the 4 FPs to ride Splash twice while Mom and Billy watched the parade, it's harder to do with the all-knowing RFID)
Originally Posted By SuperDry <<< Of course, it's tough to say how many FPs a normal guest is 'allowed' to get in a day now (4 seems about right though), so it would be tough to reduce the number that FP+ users are 'allowed' to get while they're in the park, but that does seem like a pretty good idea. >>> I was thinking that it would be an either/or proposition: if you got at least one FP+ for a park on a particular day, that would preclude you from getting any when you were in the park. As for FP+ limits per day, how about 2 for Value resorts, 3 for Moderate, and 4 for Deluxe (5 for concierge)? Just kidding, but you know that's where it's all headed.
