Originally Posted By Kar2oonMan Right now, we have about a 2 in 6 chance that the next president will be a woman or black. That's a lot better odds than we've ever had before. As soon as Edwards gives up the ghost, which should be next Wednesday, and Guiliani as well, the odds increase. We'll see.
Originally Posted By jonvn Guiliani totally messed this up, didn't he. He was the head guy. I guess people see how others have voted, and just go along because they want to vote for a winner. Nothing else matters, just vote for the guy who's winning, so you can have a little taste of that victory yourself.
Originally Posted By Kar2oonMan >>Guiliani totally messed this up, didn't he. He was the head guy. << Isn't it amazing? Not all that long ago, McCain had had it and Guiliani was the guy to beat. I guess that's why I'm seeing this as an anything can happen year.
Originally Posted By Kar2oonMan By the way, I got an automated call today taking a poll on who I might vote for on Feb. 5. I gave completely bogus answers to all the questions. I love to help confuse the pundits in whatever way I can. ; )
Originally Posted By jonvn Excellent! I wonder if a lot of other people are starting to do the same thing.
Originally Posted By Kar2oonMan I hope so! There was a bit of a movement to get people to do that, but I can't remember teh URL or any of the details. But the basic point was, give every pollster bad data. Sooner or later, their predictions would be useless and we'd actually have to wait for people to vote to get results. I never understood the mindset of people who hear someone has won so they stay home and don't vote. It's still good to cast your vote regardless so at least you can blame it on the other guys in good conscience!
Originally Posted By BigJim89 <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html" target="_blank">http://www.realclearpolitics.c om/epolls/2008/president/national.html</a> Looking at polls Hill and Barack appear to (not surprisningly) beat Romney handily, but if Mccain wins it could be bad for Dems. I think jonvn is right about Obama , "The Tom Bradley effect" comes to mind.
Originally Posted By gadzuux I never really understood the 'bradley effect'. Polls showed that bradley was leading his opponent, george dukemejian. So if people were reluctant to vote for a black candidate while in the privacy of the booth, instead they chose the armenian?
Originally Posted By jonvn Yes. That's how bad it is for black people. I'm married to someone who is half Armenian. My kid therefore is part jew, part armenian. I'm afraid someone is going to always be coming after him, from one side or the other.
