Originally Posted By fkurucz "What is the projected cost of jet fuel for the year 2020? Currently, it's about $2.79 per gallon. Estimates for 2020 range between $3.18 to $3.85 per gallon." Given that we are approaching the lower range 2020 estimate already I would say that projection is wildly optimistic. I wouldn't be surprised if we were paying $6 per gallon by then. $180 to fill up the tank in a pickup truck makes for an unaffordable commute.
Originally Posted By fkurucz "Something tells me if high speed rail is ever built here, most hipper-than-thou rail cheerleaders won't know how to get to the train station. Ha!" I wouldn't be so sure of that. Most people avoid Amtrak because it's painstakimgly slow. I rode the Eurostar from London to Brussels. It was much more pleasant than flying and almost as quick. Plus when I arrived in Brussels I was already downtown and just a few blocks from the hotel (unlike the airport).
Originally Posted By Spirit of 74 We NEED to get off the oil fix. It's just that simple. This isn't the answer. Not even close, but it can be a small part. The car culture may be ingrained in Americans, but the reality is going to have to change. We just can't keep on keeping on. Thus far, the 21st century has been a giant mess for us... if we don't want to truly become a third world nation with nukes and delusions of grandeur we better start thinking BIG and how we can become an innovator again ... we ne... nah, that's enough.
Originally Posted By Christi22222 I agree. And my life revolves around the oil business. My husband (petroleum engineer from OU) and I are kind of oddballs for the biz. But seriously, even being in the oil business, you still can see that our country being addicted to it is no good. We need oil, sure. But we need to explore other options and put as many resources behind them as we have oil. We spent billions over decades to create the car dpeendent society that we are. I don't suggest we abandon it, but I do think that it is unfair to then say that any new transportation on the scene has to pay its own way. Honestly, in my house we've been saying for 10 years that the smartest move would actually have been/still be instituting a pretty large gasoline tax like Europe. Make roads paid more by the real users, and disincentivise (is that a word? lol) gas guzzling behavior such as driving big cars, long commutes, no car pooling. Unfortunately, for years folks demanded that our government provide cheap oil, which they did to grow our economy. But we just got ourselves more and more hooked. When gas jumped a couple of years back, folks finally blinked, but that lasted all of a few months. Now we are right back to demanding cheap gas (government crack) and proceeding to do whatever we want. Not sure of the answer, but I really think a gas tax that is a real reflection of the true cost of oil to our society would be a start. And then the cost of a rail ticket starts to look a lot more attractive.
Originally Posted By fkurucz >>The car culture may be ingrained in Americans, but the reality is going to have to change. We just can't keep on keeping on.<< 5 dollar/gallon gas will cure us of our addiction to gas guzzlers. You won't be able to give pick up trucks away then.
Originally Posted By skinnerbox And with the mess in Libya right now, we may soon get there before the end of the year. Crude went up $5/barrel just today. And Gadhafi isn't going down without a very big and very bloody fight.
Originally Posted By SpokkerJones $5/gallon gas is going to hurt transit too, as trains that rely on diesel are going to have to raise fares and/or cut service to deal with fuel price increases. What drivers may find is that when they want to take the train into the city, the service may not be there. For an example, Caltrain is cutting half their daily trains and raising fares due to falling tax revenue. Higher fuel prices are only going to make the situation more dire.
Originally Posted By SpokkerJones Bus systems that operate on natural gas may pull through because natural gas prices aren't always correlated with oil prices.
Originally Posted By Christi22222 You are correct, Spokker. And that could help a lot. For some reason, this country has avoided nat gas in its effort to go green. I never understand this, as it is the fastest way to clean up your act but still use fossil fuels. Frankly, nat gas is the perfect "bridge" to the future away from fossil fuels, but it isn't "sexy" to mention anything related to fossil fuels right now. (Clean coal grabs a lot of headlines and I will never understand why. Very expensive!) Natural gas has diverged from tracking oil prices significantly in the last 5 or so years. And the U.S. reserves found of late are huge. Switching to nat gas would be cheaper, cleaner, and home grown. So hopefully mass transit will benefit from this!
Originally Posted By SpokkerJones Well, here in Southern California many bus systems operate mostly on natural gas. I know that Los Angeles Metro's fleet is 100% natural gas.
Originally Posted By skinnerbox <<Switching to nat gas would be cheaper, cleaner, and home grown.>> Only if you can extract it without fracking. Good luck with that.
Originally Posted By Christi22222 Hydraulic fracturing is a whole other discussion that I am happy to have. But the fact remains that regardless of that whole issue, we have access to considerable amounts of natural gas that don't require hydraulic fracturing to release. Careful not to mix the issue of drilling with fracturing.
Originally Posted By bayrr326 The only problem with natural gas is the way they are going after it now using a process known as "fracking" that is poisoning water supplies around the country. And thanks to Dick Cheney there is no federal regulation or oversight of it.
Originally Posted By Spirit of 74 The whole situation makes me ill, frankly. There is no vision in this country anymore. When we need the likes of an FDR we either get scary crazy folks who want to send us back to the 1950s in their mind (but actually make us third world in reality) or an eloquent speaker that has done very, very little in the WH and has a party that gets about as much accomplished as gets done in a frat house the morning after an all-night drinkfest. I don't think the O-Town-Tampa route makes sense for so many reasons, but we need a national rail network and it's just not going to happen. Anyone want to spot me a few hundred grand, so I can apply for EU citizenship?
Originally Posted By Manfried Spirit: I think people want vision. The difference is that we are also waking up to the fact that we have to have a way to pay for it. There seems to be this spoiled brat behavior in this country where everyone wants everything and wants someone else to pay for it. You cannot keep doing that. So with vision for something like a really great high speed rail - which I would like by the way - come up with a way to finance it other than through taxes.
Originally Posted By Mr X What's wrong with financing it through taxes? That's how we pay for roads and schools and other societal needs, isn't it?
Originally Posted By Christi22222 ^^^I'm with X. We've really become obsessed with this idea that we are being overly taxed. If your taxes increase your quality of life, then it is money well spent. Everyone obviously would like the waste and fraud eliminated. We just need confidence that the taxes we pay really are going to move this country forward, and that requires vision with action.
Originally Posted By Christi22222 >>The only problem with natural gas is the way they are going after it now using a process known as "fracking" that is poisoning water supplies around the country. And thanks to Dick Cheney there is no federal regulation or oversight of it.<< Let me guess....you watched "Gasland" and now you know everything there is to know about the issue? Careful parroting hyperbole. And I am absolutely no fan of Dick Cheney's. For the record, hydraulic fracturing is not limited to natural gas production. Nor does natural gas production require hydraulic fracturing. If you have an issue with the procedure, you do not have to inherently have an issue with natural gas. At least make an effort to understand the issue before making over-generalized statements.
