Originally Posted By RoadTrip The stock market is currently being driven by panic and little else. You gloom and doomers have brought about a self-fulfilling prophecy. Thanks a bunch. Once you guys have all run for cover and are the hell out of the market then things can turn around. You know and I know that stock is WAY UNDERVALUED at this point. The S&P 500 PE ration is under twenty -- at the time of the 1929 crash it was 32.6. Our position today is clearly different. The panic will subside and the market will come back.
Originally Posted By Mr X Wrong, RoadTrip. A lot of what is driving this crash is the elimination of short selling from the market. Remember you thought that was a GOOD thing? You were wrong. As for your optimism, as I said I do appreciate it...but there's a time for optimism and there is a time for being realistic. This is as real as it gets. The congress screwed us over (oh, yeah...we STILL have to pay the bill even though their stupid actions crashed the markets), and the search for a good scapegoat in this case screwed us over even more. You still think making short selling illegal was a GOOD thing? I doubt your 401k feels the same, right?
Originally Posted By RoadTrip <<You still think making short selling illegal was a GOOD thing?>> Short selling? I'm still not sure what I feel about this. I think the ban has not been good for the overall market. On the other hand, it has kept people from targeting firms and essentially putting them out of business. The short sellers are back now, so we will see how it goes. By the way... what to you think of the "uptick rule" that was put in place for short selling after the big 1929 crash. Some people are saying it should be brought back. Your thoughts? <<I doubt your 401k feels the same, right?>> I don't have one. I am one of the few people who are remarkably lucky and have an old style fixed benefit pension plan. A small portion of my savings is at risk (most was moved out of mutuals over the summer), but not my pension. Could it be at risk? Not according to the people managing it: <<The events on Wall Street the past few weeks have raised questions about the financial impact of the volatile markets on Minnesota's public pension systems. The pension systems and the State Board of Investment (SBI), which invests Minnesota's pension assets, are monitoring the situation closely, however, the retirees and active members of Minnesota's statewide pension systems should feel assured that their benefits and pensions are safe and will be paid. Retiree benefits are not adjusted downward because of investment losses. The MSRS General Plan was in a strong financial position prior to the market decline-over 90% funded. This strong funding will help us to remain financially secure during this period of declining markets. Long-Term Investors The SBI invests the state's retirement systems' assets with a long-term horizon. Since the pension promises which the state has made to its retirees and active members are not immediately payable, the SBI can maintain a longer term investment strategy and weather short-term market fluctuations. Public pension systems invest with a long-term perspective because pension costs can be spread over the career of a public employee. SBI - like other public pension systems nationwide - will stick to its long-term strategy, holding on to investments in this volatile market, thereby helping to provide liquidity and aiding in the recovery of the capital markets. While financial markets in the short term have been negative, over longer periods of time the SBI has been able to exceed the target return of 8.5% per year which is required to keep the finances of the pension systems stable.>>
Originally Posted By Sport Goofy << The stock market is currently being driven by panic and little else. You gloom and doomers have brought about a self-fulfilling prophecy. >> Most of the doom and gloomers re-allocated their funds out of the stock market a year or more ago. The people panicking now are the optimists who thought that things like stocks and houses never go down in price. They're the ones liquidating a day late and several dollars short now that they've seen their bubble burst.
Originally Posted By Mr X ***By the way... what to you think of the "uptick rule" that was put in place for short selling after the big 1929 crash. Some people are saying it should be brought back. Your thoughts?*** I think it's a good rule. I think reinstating that rather than banning the practice altogether would've been a better idea. But, again, they wanted a scapegoat. It's sad that more people worry about covering their ass and finding SOMEONE to blame rather than trying to save the markets and the world...but, not all that surprising sad to say.
Originally Posted By Sport Goofy Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if stocks ended the day on an up note. Get all the panic sellers out of the market at a loss, then the people with money to burn move in to stake out the bargains. We'll see what happens.
Originally Posted By mawnck >>A lot of what is driving this crash is the elimination of short selling from the market.<< That expired yesterday. The problem, pure and simple, is that none of the major banks trust each other's bookkeeping enough to loan each other money. The books have become so cooked now that nobody knows who's solvent and who isn't. Once that gets cleared up and credit is once again available, the market should improve. It won't be next week ...
Originally Posted By Mr X Put in a short sale (PUTS, to be specific) for Apple, which seems to be defying gravity at the moment. If Apples share prices get cut in half within a week, I win. (several thousand bucks, in fact) If not, I lose. (my several hundred dollar investment) I really hope I lose. Honestly. Keep an eye on the Apple share price, and if by next Friday it's still up near a hundred bucks...you can all cheer my loss and I'll drink a toast to the health of the markets!
Originally Posted By RoadTrip ^^^ What's going on with Volkswagen on the German exchange?? Any idea why that one is defying gravity??
Originally Posted By Mr X Solid sales, maybe? (MY Apple bet is because the hype is based on rumors...if it turns into fact I lose most likely)
Originally Posted By Kar2oonMan Apple has scheduled an "event" next week in SF, rumor is unveiling an $800 laptop.
Originally Posted By Sport Goofy I don't get how people think short sellers are bad for the market. Ultimately, a short seller only makes money after they buy the shares they have borrowed back off the market. So, short sellers ultimately end up buying the same shares they sell short at some point. The net effect on stock prices should be negligible, and there might even be some price stabilization based on the need for short sellers to have to buy back shares on a stock that is in decline.
Originally Posted By hopemax Down a mere 1.5% today. In other news, DH's company announced they were increasing their retirement account matching an additional 1%. It's a small start-up, so that 1% takes the matching from 1% to 2%. But it is a reassuring sign, that they are increasing benefits at a time when many people are worried about if they will have a job.
Originally Posted By fkurucz My employer recently reduced the 401(k) match for new hires. Used to be 1 to 1 for the first 6%. The new hires will now only get 1 for 1 on he first 2%, and 1/2 to 1 for the next 4%.
Originally Posted By RoadTrip DJIA up 570 at this point. I'm amazed no one has even mentioned it. If it had dropped by half that amount all the LP Gloom and Doomers would be crowing about it. Guess you just can't stand good news, huh? By the way... for all the LP G&D who were predicting $5 gas? My local station was selling at $2.59 today. Life is good.
Originally Posted By utahjosh Almost up 600 now. I'm sure we'll fall again later this week, but it's nice to see it up right now. Happy times
Originally Posted By Sport Goofy << DJIA up 570 at this point. I'm amazed no one has even mentioned it. If it had dropped by half that amount all the LP Gloom and Doomers would be crowing about it. >> Yup. It did the same thing back in 1929 -- then the market bottomed out at an all time low in 1932. The ride is yet from over. Enjoy the uptrend while it lasts. And for what it's worth, this doom and gloomer added to his positions at the end of last week in anticipation of this upward bounce. It's all been very predictable so far. Theese are not happy times.
Originally Posted By utahjosh It is not 1929. The market is so completely different now, I can't imagine the same day-to-day trends would match. Maybe the overall trends, but not the day-to day stuff.
