Originally Posted By vbdad55 <I'll die before I live in fear.< I don't view it as fear - I call it being prepared. I admit once I thought it was stupid too. Then we had real bad flooding here on year- and the stores were not open, I could not get far enough from the house to get provisions for 2-3 days......what if it lasted longer - what about a natural disaster.. if banks close I have plenty of money without going to an ATM-- if my kid needs band aids, I have them. Strang things can happen when people panic. I don't see it lasting long - but a week- certainly possible. If I go out an buy a gun, then you know I am living in fear -- until then anyone intruding will only have to duck a 9 iron.
Originally Posted By fkurucz <<If I go out an buy a gun, then you know I am living in fear -- until then anyone intruding will only have to duck a 9 iron.>> Stop or I'll hook!
Originally Posted By RoadTrip <<The point is not to live in fear. The point it to prepare, so you have nothing to fear.>> That's what my list of every Pizza Delivery place in town is all about. Being prepared. ;-) Unfortunately much of this "preparation" results in the very thing you are preparing for. False shortages based on fear rather than reality... much like occurred recently with Ike.
Originally Posted By vbdad55 <However, I continue to believe that we are not headed for the next "Great Depression." An economic depression might be in the cards, just not a "Great" one.< I'd like to share that optimism but I have this one nagging question - what will remove us from a depression this time ? We owe the world this time, not the other way around - and we produce almost nothing today - have become this services economy. What bartering chip - outside of military power do we have ? Do we start selling 'protection'. Usually what is great for a depression is a war - grossly puts peoipleto work- before it took idle plants and had them produce war items (not many plants left today) - this time the'war' we are in is actually contributing to the financial mess. I'm really trying to see the light at the end of the tunnel - and hoping it is not the proverbial train
Originally Posted By vbdad55 <Unfortunately much of this "preparation" results in the very thing you are preparing for. False shortages based on fear rather than reality... much like occurred recently with Ike. < call me selfish, but I don't want to be the one'short' -- false or real. I don't have stockpiles - just enough for 4 for a week or so.Just in case people get goofy ( no offense goofy-LOL !)
Originally Posted By utahjosh All I'm saying, Trippy, is that if adversity comes, we can be prepared. No panicking. No rushing to the store. Calm preparedness. Just have a basic supply of food and water and some money in savings. And do it wisely. Do not go to extremes, it is not smart, for example, to go into debt to establish your food storage all at once. Little by little.
Originally Posted By RoadTrip <<I'd like to share that optimism but I have this one nagging question - what will remove us from a depression this time ?>> Unlike 1929, much of our problem is based on leveraging in the credit industry. We do not have an economic crisis (yet - unless the fear mongers bring one on); we have a credit crisis. We will move from a credit dominated society back towards a cash society like we had in the 50's. Credit will be available, but it will be available primary for purchasing homes, automobiles and business inventory. It will be a different world, but I think in many ways a better one. I sincerely hope the days of borrowing money purely for speculation will never come again.
Originally Posted By Sport Goofy << We owe the world this time, not the other way around - and we produce almost nothing today - have become this services economy. >> I'm not pleased with the nature of our economy, but I think some of the gloom and doom about a manufacturing vs. services economy is a bit overdone. To say we produce "almost nothing" is a gross exaggeration. The United States is the largest manufacturing economy in the world. There are fewer manufacturing jobs today than there were yesterday, but manufacturing output is also higher today than it was yesterday. Factories have become more efficient and employ fewer people, but manufacturing of goods is still vibrant in many parts of the United States. Would it be great if we had growth in manufacturing jobs again? Absolutely. Are services jobs a drain on the economy? Absolutely. We have rough economic times ahead. We need to shore up our manufacturing base. That's absolutely part of the problem. But this is not the 1930s. We're not headed for a Dust Bowl here, just some belt-tightening and back to basics philosophy after years of gorging ourselves on credit.
Originally Posted By Sport Goofy << Unlike 1929, much of our problem is based on leveraging in the credit industry. We do not have an economic crisis (yet - unless the fear mongers bring one on); we have a credit crisis. >> Ummm, I don't know what history books you have been reading, but that is exactly like 1929 -- the stock market crash was precipitated by a credit crisis with banks. Easy credit in the 1920s led to excesses that wiped people out in the 1930s.
Originally Posted By vbdad55 <Unlike 1929, much of our problem is based on leveraging in the credit industry< In 1929 how much did we owe China ? Or anyone else ? $1.75 trillion to China alone is an issue -
Originally Posted By vbdad55 To say we produce "almost nothing" is a gross exaggeration. The United States is the largest manufacturing economy in the world. < Some hyperbole yes, but not as much as one would think - Steel production - USS #10 in the world our largest <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_steel_producers" target="_blank">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L...roducers</a> 40% of the worlds cement produced in China try and buy a toy / light appliance not made in China electronics / stereo equipment notfrom here Clothes - Vietnam / China so please tell me what we are producing and where...where are we the world leader - or competitive
Originally Posted By RoadTrip <<Ummm, I don't know what history books you have been reading, but that is exactly like 1929 -- the stock market crash was precipitated by a credit crisis with banks. Easy credit in the 1920s led to excesses that wiped people out in the 1930s.> Yes and no. Yes, there was a problem in that there was a huge amount of borrowed money in the market as there is now. The difference is there had been a speculative run-up in value of 500% over the preceding 5 years. The market value was based on nothing but smoke and mirrors. The bubble finally burst and everyone was wiped out. As you yourself have pointed out, the market today is about the same place as it was 10 years ago. There has been no speculative run-up (that was done in housing this time). The underlying valuation is there. At this point in time we are seeing a panic crash, which is totally different. If people get out of panic mode things will come back rather quickly.
Originally Posted By mawnck >>What do we do?cut our loses and cash out, or hang tight?<< Might as well hang tight now. The time to cash out is BEFORE it "completely tanks." Which was about 2 weeks ago. Some (not necessarily me) would tell you that now would be a swell time to put money into the market. Lotsa bargains out there. YMMV. Down 729 and falling.
Originally Posted By fkurucz >><< Unlike 1929, much of our problem is based on leveraging in the credit industry. We do not have an economic crisis (yet - unless the fear mongers bring one on); we have a credit crisis. >> Ummm, I don't know what history books you have been reading, but that is exactly like 1929 -- the stock market crash was precipitated by a credit crisis with banks. Easy credit in the 1920s led to excesses that wiped people out in the 1930s.<<< The only difference is that people in 29 were buying stocks with borrowed money, where today speculators were buying multiple houses, with no money down loans. So while 1929 shoeshine boys dabbled in stocks, in 2005 they were flipping houses.
Originally Posted By Sport Goofy << so please tell me what we are producing and where...where are we the world leader - or competitive >> Well, I happen to be living temporarily in Wisconsin. There are a number of industries here that lead the world. In the area of fire protection, you have one of the largest fire protection companies in the world with Ansul. The entire firefighting industry seems to be based out of Wisconsin. Down in Manitowoc, you have the world's leader in construction cranes. They make Harley-Davidson's here -- lots of them. They make Kleenex here, too.
Originally Posted By fkurucz <<so please tell me what we are producing and where...where are we the world leader - or competitive>> Even Boeing is moving everything they can offshore, which is one reason why their much hyped 787 is years late. I used to work for a small company that made sensor systems for water acquifers. These sensors were contained in steel tubes that had to be machined to certain tolerances (no leakage was acceptable). We had a devil of a time finding machine shops that could make these for us, as the small shops just keptr going under due to lack of business (this is in 2001-2003).
Originally Posted By mawnck >>We will move from a credit dominated society back towards a cash society like we had in the 50's.<< Oh, is that all? And here I thought times were going to get difficult. Silly me. Down 684.25 and rising.
Originally Posted By Sport Goofy << As you yourself have pointed out, the market today is about the same place as it was 10 years ago. There has been no speculative run-up (that was done in housing this time). >> I'd say a speculative run-up in housing is even worse since that comprises the bulk of the average American's net worth. Stocks are a very small part of the average American's net worth.
Originally Posted By RoadTrip Medical equipment manufacturing is big in Minnesota. Again, we lead the world in both reputation and sales in that industry.
