Originally Posted By WilliamK99 Here is what I find kind of corrupt about the stock market, and why you can't take it as a benchmark for economic recovery. Take a look at the companies that met or exceeded their projections....Most of them made it by cutting jobs, adding to the unemployment rate of the nation. I am waiting to see the next quarter's profit listings before I am willing to say we are slowly entering recovery.
Originally Posted By RoadTrip Recent unemployment figures showed a drop in unemployment. Sure, it was just .1%, but it was the first time in a couple of years that it has gone down rather than up. Housing sales are also up over the past three months. The economy is starting to turn the corner. Perception is everything. The great majority of people in this country are no worse off as far as income goes than they were two years ago. The problem is that even those in good shape have refused to open their wallets. Once people see the value of their investments rising again, once they see the value of their homes stabilize and start to increase, those whose job situation has not changed over the past year WILL start to spend again. I am truly amazed at how pessimistic people are. What is especially bizarre is that those on both sides of the political aisle are preaching gloom and doom. Let's give Obama a little credit. No one can turn the economy around in a month. It took Bush 8 years to trash the economy. It will take Obama a little more than the 8 months he has been in office to fix it. But the steps he has taken are CLEARLY having a positive effect. I'm sure glad I'm not a Debbie Downer like so many here... I could never make it right now if I was.
Originally Posted By HRM I think I posted similar thoughts (#10); however I want to clarify... I don't think it's corrupt. If a company/ business/ organization/ jousehol is in dept or losing money, you must cut expenses. Labor is the highest expense of an organization. Once the expenses are in line, and the company is making money - beating expectations - then the company can begin spending or hiring again. It's the same with any household. Individuals start cutting back expenses to be more in line with income. Cutting back expenses means less money for services and goods which may result in someone else not working. My limited understanding of The Markets is they simply reflect a snapshot in time of the entire economy, and peoples' interpretation of this snapshot.
Originally Posted By mawnck >>Perception is everything.<< Perception is nothing if the dollar tanks, or the credit card default rate skyrockets, or state and local governments can no longer provide essential services, or gas prices shoot up a few bucks, or there's a disaster (natural or manmade), or the ultra-conservative loons decide to go all 2nd Amendment on us, or the financial sector repeats last year because their incentive structure hasn't changed one iota, or some computer glitch causes automated high speed trading to nuke the stock market in a matter of minutes, or a flu epidemic sweeps the workforce. There are too many breezes blowing on this house of cards for me to be optimistic about it.
Originally Posted By barboy ///There are too many breezes blowing on this house of cards for me to be optimistic about it./// --nicely phrased
Originally Posted By HRM My comments initially were for WilliamK99. Roadtrip... Just curious... While I'm not saying Bush is blameless, do you think the economy would of tanked anyway because of certain ingrained behaviors; ie (1) financial markets running amok without oversight (Bush's administration did pass a few laws to enable them, but we did feed into the process) (2) individuals spending more than their earning, feeling a sense of entitlement? and (3) voters looking to government to solve their problems with excess services and programs... I support Obama also, however even Obama's saying that blame is spread around for all. Also, I'm concerned as to how we're going to pay for all this new government spending - kinda worried about inflation, I remember the seventies & eighties... (shudder)
Originally Posted By barboy ///Housing sales are also up over the past three months./// I don't see how that helps if prices are noticeably low now. Here is a crude example: Say Jack buys 100 barrels of oil at $80 per barrel. He then turns over his entire inventory for $60 per barrel. Jack didn't do very well. There are countless Jacks in the US right now.
Originally Posted By hopemax From the BLS summary <a href="http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm" target="_blank">http://www.bls.gov/news.releas....nr0.htm</a> "In July, the number of unemployed persons was 14.5 million." "The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) rose by 584,000 over the month to 5.0 million. In July, 1 in 3 unemploy- ed persons were jobless for 27 weeks or more." I'm okay being called a Debbie Downer for not thinking that things are getting even marginally better. IMO, the drop came from people who no longer count as "unemployed" because they have stopped looking. "The civilian labor force participation rate declined by 0.2 percentage point in July to 65.5 percent."
Originally Posted By mawnck >>There are countless Jacks in the US right now.<< Try telling that to the Republicans. They don't know Jack. BWAAAAAAAHhahahahahahahahahahaaaaaa! Har har har har har har ... har ......... har ............ Ahem.
Originally Posted By HRM Given the Democrats control Congress, and Congress is giving Obama some difficulties in passing legislation... i'd say Democrats don't know mr. J as well. Maybe the better way would be not to label...
Originally Posted By RoadTrip <<Say Jack buys 100 barrels of oil at $80 per barrel. He then turns over his entire inventory for $60 per barrel. Jack didn't do very well.>> Anyone who purchased their home prior to Fall 2002 would still be breaking even in almost all parts of the country. You are assuming everyone bought at the peak and is selling at the bottom. Unless a person HAD to do that (job change, retirement, whatever), why would they?
Originally Posted By Sport Goofy ^^ People also took equity out of their homes to buy cars, vacations, groceries, etc. So, even if homes were purchased prior to 2002, they may have borrowed against the value of a home in 2005 or at the peak.
Originally Posted By RoadTrip <<People also took equity out of their homes to buy cars, vacations, groceries, etc. So, even if homes were purchased prior to 2002, they may have borrowed against the value of a home in 2005 or at the peak.>> Stupid is as stupid does.
Originally Posted By barboy ///You are assuming everyone bought at the peak and is selling at the bottom./// ...well not everyone of course but a large enough % to really make a mess of things. ...and then there are the refinanciers who purchased before 2002 who drained their equity. Anyway I don't see how selling widgets whether few or many for less than one paid for them as a promising sign. A much better indicator that things are looking up would be if there were far fewer home sales but the ones that did sell are holding their value.
Originally Posted By ecdc >>Anyone who purchased their home prior to Fall 2002 would still be breaking even in almost all parts of the country. You are assuming everyone bought at the peak and is selling at the bottom. Unless a person HAD to do that (job change, retirement, whatever), why would they? << And some of us who bought at the peak bought in established, moderate areas. My house is what it was worth in 2006 when I bought it. Imagine that - not getting $40,000 in equity in three years. Some of us didn't buy McMansions. Some of us didn't buy brand new homes in new suburbs 40 miles away from the city center with names like "Eagle Canyon" and "Stone Haven," and live on streets like "Rustic Meadows Avenue" and "Oak Hollow Road." And, some of us didn't take out second and third mortgages. So while we're none-too-pleased about the recession and the corruption of big business, we're weathering it ok because we weren't idiots. And there's plenty of us out there. I agree 100% with RT on this. There is room for optimism laced with caution.
Originally Posted By barboy ///Stupid is as stupid does./// Yep agreed; so is: (1) sending jobs to other countries while letting foreigners fill positions in the US. (2) allowing non permanent US residents/citizens to descend on us and buy up our real estate like common carpetbaggers in reconstruction South. These alien vultures best stay home. (3) invading another country for no reason which drained public money that could have gone to worthy causes like cleaning up our beaches and fixing a pothole or two on the roadways.....or how about paying for some health care. (4) building gas guzzling cars while neglecting mass public transportation The point is irrespective of how we got here the US is in very bad shape.
Originally Posted By SuperDry <<< Stupid is as stupid does. >>> That's true, but elsewhere in this thread you seem to rely on these very same people to start spending again to recover the economy.
Originally Posted By RoadTrip <<That's true, but elsewhere in this thread you seem to rely on these very same people to start spending again to recover the economy.>> Spending their INCOME... not borrowing against their equity or putting it on charge cards.
