Originally Posted By skinnerbox <<fivethirtyeight remains my preferred source - he's such a wonky numbers guy that he doesn't really let any bias in (if indeed he even has any), and his take is that although Romney definitely picked up support after the first debate, Obama remains a slight favorite.>> Exactly. Singling out individual polls at this point is, pointless. Especially the national polls and robocall polls, which have inherent biases that need to be accounted for in overall analysis. For those sitting on the sidelines of technology and have missed the drastic changes to our communications in the past four years since Obama won in 2008, here are some facts to keep in mind about polls: 1) One-third of American households no longer have land-based telephone lines. That's a significant chunk of the population. And well over 90% of cell phones have caller ID by default. Which means at least 30% of American households are not going to answer a polling phone call because they don't want to lose minutes for a caller they don't recognize. 2) Some polling firms like Rasmussen use automated or 'robo' polling for getting their data. But Federal law prohibits the use of robocalling cell phone numbers. Therefore, Rasmussen polls are heavily biased because one-third of American households are being left out. Plus, most households that have Caller I.D. for their land-based telephone lines do not answer calls from numbers they don't recognize, especially numbers that are blocked. Therefore, most of these polls being conducted over the phone lean heavily towards land-based phones without the Caller I.D. service. Guess which two demographics mostly comprise that particular consumer group. Yup. Folks either too poor to have a cell phone or extra services like Caller I.D. on their land-based phones... OR... folks who don't want the newer technology like a cell phone mostly because they don't understand it. And both of these groups lean heavily towards the over-65 stay-at-home crowd, which is mostly comprised of old white retired blue collar workers. And these individuals make up the bulk of Fox News viewers, who mostly vote Republican. Because of technology gains with smartphones, more and more people are dropping their land-based phones. And because of Caller I.D., fewer and fewer individuals are answering calls from numbers they don't know. So where is the value in telephone polling in 2012? For me, there isn't any. This isn't 1992 or even 2002. Too many telecommunication changes have occurred, especially in just the last 5 years with the explosion of iPhone demand, for this to still be a viable measurement of popularity. It's time to adopt a new means of measurement that doesn't rely heavily on one particular demographic.
Originally Posted By Goofyernmost >>>If the President doesn't win reelection then I think we are in the midst of the beginnings of a cycle of one term Presidents.<<< Disney won't allow that to happen. Imagine the cost of retooling the Hall of the Presidents every 4 years.
Originally Posted By TomSawyer They won't retool. They'll just rename it "Hall of Presidents: Under New Management" and retheme it as a history class at Monster U.
Originally Posted By mele I must defend Candice here. 1) It was a damn joke and 2) she's beaten cancer mutliple times and has every right to fear for the state of our health care system if Romney becomes president. In other words, screw off.
Originally Posted By barboy Somebody must have stepped on a cat's tail----super hard like---- 'cause that was one loud screech coming out of the Pacific Northwest.
Originally Posted By MissCandice Thanks Mele, for your support. It was a joke. Like I'd ever move to a country where their bacon is really ham. Sheesh. I guess I should have used an emoticon for DDMAN, William and Barboy so they would understand that it was a joke. -note to self: use small words and emoticons while posting in WE.
Originally Posted By Kar2oonMan >>Like I'd ever move to a country where their bacon is really ham.<< LOL!!!
Originally Posted By Goofyernmost Yea, but try telling them it's just a slice of circular ham!! In their defense it fits perfectly on an Egg McMuffin.
Originally Posted By Goofyernmost But...it's still ham! Sorta like telling people that the Turkey Legs at Disney are really nothing more than ham as well. What are ya going to do...we believe what we want too. ;-)
Originally Posted By WilliamK99 >>It makes you wonder how many people voted FOR Candidate Obama versus how many voted for him because they were tired of the Bush doctrine.<< And yet they're going to give the keys back to the guys that rolled the car into the ditch in the first place.<< Better than the guy who inherited the car in the ditch and instead of pulling it out of the ditch sat there and complained about it for 4 years, blaming the driver yet did nothing to get the car out of the ditch...
Originally Posted By Dabob2 If that were the case, that would be one thing. But Obama's done quite a lot to pull us out. The stimulus, despite GOP claims to the contrary, did exactly what it was supposed to do. So did the auto bailout. A second stimulus (or the Jobs Bill) would have done more still, but was blocked by a GOP Congress determined that things not improve much before November 2012. All you have to do is look at our recovery versus most of the rest of the industrialized world. Ours is stronger. Unless you want to believe Obama is secretly screwing up the economies of all those other countries, that should tell you something. The whole world fell into that ditch; we're coming out faster than others. Bill Clinton said it best: no one, not even him, could have gotten us out of that ditch in 4 years. (And Clinton is not without an ego - that means something when he says that.) So we can keep digging out of the ditch - or turn the keys back over to a guy who promises the same policies that got us there.
Originally Posted By tiggertoo <<I don't want to move to Canada!>> No kidding! I can't afford the gas.
Originally Posted By SuperDry As I've said before, my favorite site is 270towin.com. Since the first Presidential debate, it shows the same swing states. Based on changes in polling data in those states, the predicted likelihood of an Obama victory has changed from 98% to 94%.
Originally Posted By Goofyernmost New Poll Alert...I just took a poll of my neighbors and found that I am leading both Obama and Romney in what is a very tight race. Better start packing up.
Originally Posted By TomSawyer William, he's done a lot to pull us out, despite the party that was standing in front of the tow truck trying to prevent him from getting the car out at any cost.
Originally Posted By gurgitoy2 "(Now get ready for your Kar2oonMan bounce!)" LOL, all I can think of is Tigger bouncing on Pooh...yeah, dumb, but...
Originally Posted By Goofyernmost President Goofyernmost...it's got a nice ring to it. I might even vote for me and I know me really well. Still!!!
