Slash and Burn ...

Originally Posted By Spirit of 74

More news on the WDW front ... apparently HoP and Space Mtn. refurbs are definitely safe.

Beyond that?

Well ... Imagination 4.0 is likely tabled for the forseeable future.

At the Studios, Monsters coaster is on hold indefinitely (yeah, that means it might not happen)and you don't want to know how much money has been spent already on it.

Star Tours 2.0 is in a nebulous region as it is basically ready for installation, but NONE of the parks want it right now because of the costs. Now ... it's going to make it into all of them at some point ... word is DLP shockingly may be the first to get it when just six months ago it was thought to be last in line.

Major projects for MK and DAK aren't dead, but they've all been put into hypersleep right now.

Oh, and there is no real plan for WDW's 40th.

And trust me ... if I'm wrong, you'll hear about it!

 

Originally Posted By vbdad55

<or the deluge of credit card debt that was accumulated and can't be paid back (this is going to be the next crisis)<

I have been preaching this for a year now-- the time is right around the corner. Already stories in papers about CC companies lowering limits and people not knowing ( raising % ofcredit used-lowering creditscores) - as well as doubling minimum payments and if you are over 30% credit used and anywhere near 60% - expect your rates to rapidly rise - even if you are paying on time. It is happening already -- and once interest rates start rising overall ( and they certainly will) - this may make the housing market crisis seem mild.....NONE ofthis debt is secure,don't have to worry about LTV - it is ALL at risk.

 

Originally Posted By vbdad55

<<<Florida and Nevada are ground zero for the housing bubble collapse.>>

Absolutely. What's staggering is how many new homes are sitting empty. Mini-McMansions really that once would have sold for a million and now no one will touch them for half that.

What's scary is that a local Realtor told me the houses are now being sold to a lot of folks from China ... soon they will own us.
<


the last few trips to Vero Beach I looked at new housing in the Treasure Coast area...visiting new subdivisions and talking to independents as well. I basically decided it was over valued and decided to put any move on hold..

in the last 3-4 months - almost every builder I visited has called/contacted me - and the 'discounts ' are huge. They have a large stock of spec homes they can't move. One home that was $525k was offered to me for $370 if I would close within 90 days. Welcome to reality.


Also when I looked at homes right on the ocean in that area ( no I couldn't afford those) - local realtors told me the buyers were mainly South American investors.

 

Originally Posted By vbdad55

<you are forgetting that these 100,000 families are also paying monthly maintenance fees to maintain those facilities whether they attend of not>>

So is DVC a good value or not? I seem to recall the reasoning offered here in LP that even with the annual fees its a bargain.
<

sure,if you use it - if you don't go- of course not. What some people forgot that when you live thousands of miles away, 'paid for' lodging is not your only vacation cost.

 

Originally Posted By fkurucz

^^Ok, so they did cannibalize future sales by selling at a discount.

 

Originally Posted By fkurucz

<<NONE ofthis debt is secure,don't have to worry about LTV - it is ALL at risk.>>

But they can garnish your wages, which is why BK laws were tightened up in the bank's favor a few years ago. Its going to be hard to walk away from that debt.

 

Originally Posted By RoadTrip

<<^Ok, so they did cannibalize future sales by selling at a discount.>>

No, they did not. They gained more frequent visits and visits as the owners aged that they would not otherwise have. They assured themselves that empty nesters would continue to visit WDW.

 

Originally Posted By MPierce

>> Well, I sort of already have moved there since I have 3 pieces of real property, family(in-laws) and I've been staying 2 months out of the year. If I have my way it will soon be the reverse......... 10 months in the jungled, polluted, 3rd world, terrorist/sex worker/kidnap/earthquake/typhoon/malaria ridden PI, I mean paradise and two months in boring USA <<

It's great isn't it?

 

Originally Posted By MPierce

>> More news on the WDW front ... apparently HoP and Space Mtn. refurbs are definitely safe. <<

Will those both be major refurbs as was originally planned?

>> Well ... Imagination 4.0 is likely tabled for the forseeable future. <<

That needed to be addressed a long time ago.

>> At the Studios, Monsters coaster is on hold indefinitely (yeah, that means it might not happen)and you don't want to know how much money has been spent already on it. <<

Yes I do.

>> Star Tours 2.0 is in a nebulous region as it is basically ready for installation, but NONE of the parks want it right now because of the costs. Now ... it's going to make it into all of them at some point ... word is DLP shockingly may be the first to get it when just six months ago it was thought to be last in line. <<

Wasn't WDW suppose to take the lead in that one?

>> Major projects for MK and DAK aren't dead, but they've all been put into hypersleep right now. <<

That wouldn't bother me if they would only return to the original Disney philosophy.

>> Oh, and there is no real plan for WDW's 40th. <<

They figure the majority of people won't notice or even care. Isn't that how WDW plays the game now days?

>> And trust me ... if I'm wrong, you'll hear about it! <<

When dealing with Disney any rational person should understand that things can, and do change day to day.

 

Originally Posted By vbdad55

<<<NONE ofthis debt is secure,don't have to worry about LTV - it is ALL at risk.>>

But they can garnish your wages, which is why BK laws were tightened up in the bank's favor a few years ago. Its going to be hard to walk away from that debt<

Hard to garnish wages of the unemployed

 

Originally Posted By vbdad55

<^^Ok, so they did cannibalize future sales by selling at a discount<

nope -it's called time value of money

 

Originally Posted By skinnerbox

<<There are two big 'names' at WDI who may be on the way out ... one who would be a HUGE blow to WDW if he goes.>>

Rumors are circulating on other sites that Baxter and Rohde will be gone soon.

Spirit... is this true?

 

Originally Posted By fkurucz

<<They gained more frequent visits and visits as the owners aged that they would not otherwise have>>

That is debatable, and by no means certain. For one thing, a DVC guest is most likely to be someone who comes every year anyway. If you like variety in your vacations, why would you buy into DVC? The sales pitch is that you will save a ton on your Disney trips if you buy into DVC. That only works with people think that its reasonable to go to Disney every year to begin with.

Additionally, DVC members might choose not to come or even let their memberships default.

 

Originally Posted By vbdad55

why would one default on deedable property ? That makes no sense - sell their points - sure. DVC owners are a little smarter than that.

DVC does more surveys that onecan shake a stick at and seems to have a very good handle on demographics and usage - as wellas what else to offer.

Ever hear of Disney Adventures? Also pushed hard now - these areworldwide adventures.I know people who have gone to Costa Rica - and the Alps trip- loved them both.

One can also very easily just do a cruise with the points as well...

flexibility is not an issue - and no matter what, the Mouse ends up with the cash. If they default on loan - Mouse resells the points. If they default on maintenance fees -eventually ditto and resell again - even more money

 

Originally Posted By fkurucz

<<nope -it's called time value of money>>

So its not a better deal than just booking a room? Which way is it? Deal or no deal? You keep saying that its a great deal, but when I point out that Disney is cannibalizing future sales by doscounting then you flip flop and say its not discounted.

Besides that, TVM kind of falls apart when there is deflation, and especially when you are paying for the membership in installments with interest.

 

Originally Posted By fkurucz

<<why would one default on deedable property>>

Perhaps because the market may have decided that it has lost most of its value and it has become unsellable. Like say in an economic depression?

Not saying that this will happen, but it is a possibility.

 

Originally Posted By fkurucz

<<If they default on loan - Mouse resells the points.>>

Again, that depends if there is amarket.

And please don't tell me the value of a DVC membership is rock solid. People used to say that about houses.

 

Originally Posted By vbdad55

well then let's have everyone sell their home right now too because they are lousy deals because of the freak economic period we are in. Nothing is a great deal 100% of the time. My share goes thru 2055 ( extended from 2042 for my kids ) - - will the economy still be in the crapper in 47 more years ? History tells us - nope.

Also I NEVER ( and I don't recallanyone else doing it either) saying DVC is GREAT deal. It is a good deal for those who want to prepay for vacations andwill take oneevery year- whether it is WDW or DL or a Cruise or Disney Adventure. For someone who goes once a decade -no,it is a bad investment. Gothru the archives and look at thebiz cases done ad infinitum by people like myself and Trippy. 1. you'll not find either of us call DVC a GREAT deal.

I can tellyoufor me I bought in 1993. For thenext 7 years and 11 trips my familyhad free park admission ( what is that worth) - andby the time I took my 7th trip - 5 years in it was paid for.I don;t recommend financing 30 years on DVC oir anything else. If one can't pay in 5 or 10 - likely it's not where one's money belongs anyway.

So I can tell you my lodging costs me maintenace fees. period. You find youself a 1-2 bedroom condofacility for 10 days on the grounds at WDW and another 5-7 at an ocean front Inn for $130 dollars a year. Do the math-man.


Also, why the extreme hatred of DVC ? There as got to be more than you're letting on here. And please stop with they spend all their money there- separate business line item ( realestate) - and from all accounts very profitable. It wasn't the reason they replaced 20Kwith a crappy playground - or why we haveno new E tickets ina generation at MK.

 

Originally Posted By vbdad55

I know peoplewho have added points recently. Yes the real estate market is in the crapper- but has that caused you to sell your house and live under a viaduct because your home may be losing value ? I hope not.I may not be as rose colored glasses as RT when it comes to theeconomy- but the downturn we arein is cyclical - in fact may get worse next year...but is it forever ? If it is - we will have much bigger issues to worry about than DVC value.

 

Originally Posted By davewasbaloo

>>>Rumors are circulating on other sites that Baxter and Rohde will be gone soon.

Spirit... is this true?<<<

I hope not, these are the only folks that seem to get it!