Originally Posted By SteamboatPhillie Yes, Harry Potter is unbelievably popular, but keep in mind there's only two movies left to keep that popularity going. After that at least a few people will move onto something else, and it's a question of how devoted fans will be afterwards. I can't imagine all one billion plus people that are fans right now (conservative estimate) are going to stay huge fans when there's no new material. Disney keeps putting out new movies, new shows, new rides. That's why it continues to grow. Harry Potter is not on the same level as Disney, no matter how popular it gets. So it's not as if one franchise is going to bring down the mouse, or even make it stumble.
Originally Posted By Sport Goofy I think people really overestimate the impact of these character tie-ins on theme park attendance. Nobody makes a vacation decision based on a standalone character. You could ask the same question about a number of popular characters at various theme parks-- What is the impact of Spider Man on IOA attendance? What is the impact of The Cat in the Hat on IOA attendance? What was the impact of the Pirates of the Caribbean franchise on WDW attendance? What is the impact of Winnie the Pooh on WDW attendance? Hit movies/books/TV shows come and go. I think Spider Man is a terrific example of how unimportant these character tie-ins are to the overall success of a park. They had a super popular movie franchise, a unique ride experience, and IOA is still losing attendance year over year. Will Harry Potter be any different? I suppose it could be a draw for more visitors, but historically these sorts of things have never driven attendance in the theme park industry. And what happens when the HP fascination dies down in the long run? What do you do with an entire HP land? How do you keep it relevant when the movies are done and the books are no longer on the best seller's list? Walt Disney was pretty sharp to apply a broad brush in the themes he pursued at DL. There was no Mickey Mouse Land, Davy Crockett Land, Swiss Family Robinson Land, etc. Characters and stories come and go with time, but broadly themed environments that can adapt over the long run make a lot more sense. I really hope the rumors of a Star Wars makeover for portions of WDW -- or any other specific franchise tie-in for that matter -- are false because it is very much out of line with the successful formula Disney parks have employed for a very long time now.
Originally Posted By DlandDug It is perhaps a bit early to speculate on the impact that the Wizarding World of Harry Potter at IOA will have on WDW. But it's sure fun...! I am inclined to believe that HP will resonate for many, many years. Bear in mind that new readers are being born every year, and discovering the books at a regular rate. Films today live long beyond their theatrical run. So I am pretty sure that Harry Potter will be a major force in the pop culture landscape for a very long time. The real question is whether Universal will be able to properly capitalize on that. And I am inclined to say... no way. Universal has shown themselves to be absolutely hapless when it comes to creating and sustaining popular attractions. The first mistake with HP, in my opinion, is in assuming that guests will be satisfied with what is essentially a remodel of a portion of IOA. I know, I know. They are promising all sorts of unique attractions and adventures. But strolling through IOA with my 12 year old (a major HP fan) last Summer found him eying the area proposed for the Wizarding World, and almost instantly figuring out what would be rethemed to what. So first strike (in my opinion) is dressing this very important franchise in hand-me-downs. (I should add that ds is very, very excited and wants to be there on opening day.) Will Uni really be able to capture what millions of readers are imagining they will be able to see and do in the Wizarding World? Again, if the past is any indication, I am inclined to think not. Look at what they have done with Jurassic Park, Dr. Seuss and the Marvel universe. Are these really great, repeatable attractions that have brought guests back, year after year? I do hope that Disney will step up to the plate, regardless. And I hope that the Wizarding World of Harry Potter will make at least one 12 year old happy. But I just don't think it will be a silver bullet. Been there, done that, one time too many.
Originally Posted By Spirit of 74 <<That is because Epcot Center was the last theme park to be properly designed right from the get go. It was designed so that new additions could be added for at least 50 years into future just like the original Disneyland. >> A bit of hyperbole on both ends. EC did have an amazing master plan that left huge expansion pads available for future growth. You'd be shocked how much still exists. But DAK's master plan is just as impressive. ANd even though Camp MM was stuck in at last minute, that can be removed. As for DL, well, it wasn't built with a plan to grow for 50 years. Walt just wanted to see it be successful and grow and change ... the fact it has burst beyond the berm is proof of that.
Originally Posted By dshyates "And what happens when the HP fascination dies down in the long run?" I believe that one of the goals of this HP land is to help give it some better legs. Can anyone say "The Wind and the Willows". And I believe that if the new attraction is anywhere near as good as planned it will be a home run. Everybody is pointing to characters as to the reason for their declining numbers. It could be that they haven't added anything new since they oppened 8 years ago. Characters really do more for merchendising than for overall attendence. That said HP will be the biggest thing to come to Otown since "The Florida Project" was created. It is weird that what people want in theme parks more than characters is attractions. The quality of attractions is really what drives attendence. And with Spiderman, Rip-saw falls, JP River expedition, Hulk, Dueling Dragons and the new "Flying Weasley Car" they have an impressive line-up of E-Tickets. How many does DHS have? 2, 3 after Star Tours 2.0?
Originally Posted By pheneix >>>But DAK's master plan is just as impressive. ANd even though Camp MM was stuck in at last minute, that can be removed<<< Problem is that DAK's facilities can't handle that kind of growth. Even with what the park has now it can't keep up with demand. At the very least they are going to have to completely demolish and rebuild the ticket sales/turnstyles complex before they add anymore capacity to the park. EPCOT Center on the other hand, it can handle anything we can throw at it. Even on New Year's Eve the crowds are infinitely more manageable there than at MK or Disneyland.
Originally Posted By bobbelee9 What's the age breakdown of fans for Harry Potter vs Star Wars? What is the age breakdown of the customer who decides how/where to spend the money?
Originally Posted By fkurucz <<How many does DHS have? 2, 3 after Star Tours 2.0?>> I will admit that I found DHS to be a bit of a disappointment. I think that I would take DCA over it just about any day.
Originally Posted By DLer Goofy: I think you are severely underestimating the popularity of HP versus something like Spiderman or even Pirates of the Caribbean (the movie series). HP is perhaps the most widespread and recognized "brand" that has come to be in the past two decades - where else have you seen both adults and children butying books in advance and waiting in bookstores at midnight on the day of release for a book? HP is every marketing persons dream - a product that has a great and devoted following and cuts across a number of age groups. Universal has done a great thing to ally themselves with the HP brand. If they can deliver some state-of-the-art kickbutt attractions and build in some "repeatability" to their HP world in IOA, they will have a valuable addition to their portfolio and IOA will benefit greatly from that addition.
Originally Posted By fkurucz <<HP is perhaps the most widespread and recognized "brand" that has come to be in the past two decades - where else have you seen both adults and children butying books in advance and waiting in bookstores at midnight on the day of release for a book?>> While this is true, I think the lack of future books will have an effect. FWIW, we have all the HP movies. Its been a long time since we have watched the earlier ones. That said, the next time we are in OTown (we are DLR folk, so who knows when that might be), we will no doubt make a side trip to Uni. But I doubt that we would make the trip there just because of HP, and rather than cut back on WDW time, we would probably add a day or 2 for Uni. Then again, we are a sample of 1.
Originally Posted By dshyates What will keep Harry popular is the books. The power of literature. Hary has 7 books that are as solid as and fantasy lit ever. It will have the staying power of Tolkien and Lewis. Harry is as strong an intellectual property as exists on this planet. And there is a book * on the way. It is a compendium to the series explaining every character. a dictionary, a spell glossary, etc. I would imagine that this book will hit the shelves about the same time as the WWoHP grand opening. Another one two punch from the boy who would not die.
Originally Posted By Sport Goofy << What will keep Harry popular is the books. The power of literature. >> You are living in a world defined by the standards of a century ago and need to recognize that the world has left notions like this behind. The amount of media content created today in comparison to the world of Tolkien and Lewis is not even remotely on the same level. There are thousands of competing stories on the shelves now and thousands more that will be put on the shelves a year from now, 2 years from now, a decade from now! These sorts of properties just don't have the shelf life that they used to because there is so much competition to get something new on the shelf to replace it. Wal-Mart only cares about selling HP when it drives people into the store in the weeks surrounding its release. Will HP be on Wal-Mart bookshelves 10 years from now when it doesn't drive people into stores? Probably not. The same argument goes for films. How many weeks was Star Wars the #1 movie in America when it was first released? How many months did it stay in theaters? The answer to the last question can be expressed in years, not months. Today, a movie is successful if it stays in theaters for about 2 months, but don't expect anything more than that even for a blockbuster. There is simply too much media competition.
Originally Posted By fkurucz ^^You make a good point. I think that Uni addition will help add buzz to HP, but there is a lot of competetion for eyeballs out there. 50+ years ago Walt was able to captivate America with Disneyland using the new medium of TV. Back then programming was rare and channels were few. I remember as a kid that I knew someone who had a classic Disney movie on film (8mm or something). I was so jealous that these people could watch that movie whenever they pleased. Fast forward to today: most of us have dozens, if not hundreds of DVD's at home. being able to see a movie when its no longer showing in theatres is no big deal anymore. Anyway, I do think that HP will hang around much like Narnia has, which is to say it probably won't retain the cult status like Star Wars did. Of course, Lucas was very cunning, nurturing the paperback market, toys, themepark rides, Special Edition releases of the movies and above all, the promise of possibly more movies sometime in the future. Now if Rowling would promise something like "The New Adventures of HP", she might be able to keep the Franchise going. This will be tough, as Harry's story has pretty much completed its Arc. I'm not sure that kids would want to read the stories of adult Harry and Ron's adventures as Ministry of Magic employees. She might also try "in between" stories that happen during the original Arc, but who cares? We all know that Harry won in the end.
Originally Posted By Bob Paris Even though I have read book seven, there are plenty of people who may not have. Could an admin please edit the above post to edit out the last bit?
Originally Posted By fkurucz I think that by this time anyone who really cares knows how book 7 ended. You heard that Darth Maul snuffed Qui Gon Jin, right?
Originally Posted By DlandDug I completely disagree that HP books will somehow disappear from retail shelves within the next few years. They will almost certainly remain popular for many years to come. Bear in mind that schools are behind them, and a new crop of readers is discovering Book 1 every year. The film series still has a couple of years to run, and then the video releases will keep refreshing that part of the franchise. (Special editions, complete sets, and director's version, etc. etc.) Ten years from now Harry Potter will still be a potent force in popular culture. (P.S. I doubt that HP will be on the shelves at WalMart, since they tend to carry only current best sellers. But the series will certainly be carried in book store chains for years to come.)
Originally Posted By DLer Was it not Disney who still parses out new releases of their old classic hits on DVDs on a regular basis to "re-stimulate" interest in certain franchise properties like Snow White and/or Cinderella? Did not Lucas follow the same pattern and parse out new releases of Star Wars at opportune times? Rest assured that Universal will work with JK Rowling and the Potter franchise folks to make sure that the proper "primeing" of the Harry media circus takes place prior to the opening of the IOA attractions. I believe the real battle is going to be over two days - can Universal pry those extra two days (making a stay of 4 days rather than a standard 2 days) out of the Orlando visitor? If they can, then there will be a tip of the scales from a standard 4-day Disney/2-day Universal/1-day SeaWorld kind of pattern. If Universal can crack the Disney hold on the majority of days in an O-town vacation, then that would be something.
Originally Posted By Bob Paris "I think that by this time anyone who really cares knows how book 7 ended." Perhaps not. There may be many people waiting for the softcover to come out. But I guess in this day and age of ADD attention spans, the two months since bopok seven has come out must be like twenty years. Harlan Ellison once said that for this over-stimulated, over-hyped generation, nostalgia is what they had for breakfast.
Originally Posted By DlandDug >>If Universal can crack the Disney hold on the majority of days in an O-town vacation, then that would be something.<< And I cannot imagine this will happen. When I am on the Esat Coast, if I mention I've been to Orlando, or headed to Orlando, people almost ALWAYS say, "Oh, been to/going to Disney, eh?" I have NEVER had anyone even mention Universal. It's like a knee jerk reaction. Of course, maybe they think everything in Orlando is "Disney."
