Originally Posted By dshyates With Disney's higher prices and Universal's extreme discounts, over the past year Uni has made some remarkable gains in the domestic market. Disney is now obviously going for the euro market. With the strong Euro and the pound at 2:1 to the dollar everything in America is 50% off. With Disney's strong international draw it has workd so far. But the base American market with its collapsing money market being lead by the forclosure crisis the domestic tourist are investigating cheaper alternatives to Disney. This is what we did this year. We went to Orlando, but for the first time ever we did not step foot in a Disney park. Disney is knowingly forcing the domestic market to check out Universal. With Uni about to kick it up, way up, this may not be a wise move. Uni is adding the Simpson's and Harry Potter. They are also working on their very successful special events like Halloween Horror Nights, Grinchmas and soon the special Holiday overlay to TWWoHP, complete with carolers, hot chocolate, seasonal treats, snow cover hogsmeade, and occasional flurries throughout the day. Universal will own from Oct. 1 through the Holidays. And the best thing is that the Christmas stuff will all be free with admission like at Disneyland, and not a special ticket event like down at WDW. They are adding 2 new hotels and an 800 room addition to the Royal Pacific. Bringing Wet n' Wild into the resort admission media (at an extra charge similar to how they do it at WDW). TWWoHP will definitly put pressure on WDW. But, that said, I do believe Disney will gain in the long run. There will be many people tempted off property to see Potter, but I believe that Potter will bring more people to Orlando, that will include Disney than Disney guests leaving to see HP. Once agian the Euro market. They will come specifically to see Potter, but they aren't going to fly from Scotland to see Harry and not go the 12 miles to include WDW. As I have said before, I think WDW should start offering Universal, Sea World and BGT admission media, shuttles to Uni and Sea World. There is no reason Disney can't profit from the the popularity of Potter. With their hotel, and transportation abilities, if Disney plays their cards right more people will go to Disney to see Potter than stay at Uni to see Potter. Or they can do what they have always done and ignore Potter and make it as difficult as possible to leave property, If Disney doesn't offer shuttles then I'm sure Uni will. Does Disney want rolling Universal billboards prominently featuring Harry Potter all over the property? Who would stay at Disney if "you can't get there from here".
Originally Posted By Sport Goofy << With Disney's higher prices and Universal's extreme discounts, over the past year Uni has made some remarkable gains in the domestic market. >> Do you enjoy just making this stuff up out of thin air? In their most recent quarterly update, Universal reported attendance is down year over year, far from the "remarkable gains" that you seem to indicate. Link below: <a href="http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/business_tourism_aviation/2007/08/another-drop-in.html" target="_blank">http://blogs.orlandosentinel.c om/business_tourism_aviation/2007/08/another-drop-in.html</a> In fact, all of the reginal amusement parks have reported weak attendance this year. Only WDW, with its strong draw from Europe, has managed to increase turnstyle clicks.
Originally Posted By dshyates Universal is getting a higher percentage of the domestic market than ever before. The overall numbers go up and down from year to year. The domestic economy is tight with the forclosure crisis a leading indicator. So the domestic numbers are down across the board, but there is a shift in those that are traveling to cheaper/regional entertainment. Disney has gone after th brits and with the exchange rate its cheaper to come to Otown than Paris. So Disney's numbers will be up.
Originally Posted By dshyates Everyone is anxiously awaiting the summer numbers. They will be quite interesting. Disney is leaking that it will be a reacord year. We will know soon.
Originally Posted By Spirit of 74 Disney is doing amazing in the international market this year ... especially the UKers .. of course when they can come for 60% to start with and then get that off discounted packages ... well, you figure it out. But anyone who says HP won't be a force to be reckoned with really doesn't understand the whole phenomenom at all ... once a guest leaves Disney property, it opens up a world of possibilties ... possibilities the Mouse does not want its guests exposed to.
Originally Posted By pheneix Universal's attendance did drop this year, BUT... >>>Universal City Development Partners second-quarter 2007 financial statement reported a 2.5 percent drop in attendance but a 32.2 percent rise in operating profit for the three-month period that ended July 1. The increase in operating profit was partly the result of the average visitor spending more money on tickets, food, drink and merchandise than the average visitor during the second quarter of 2006. compared with the same period in 2006.<<< I think Disney would KILL to have a 32% increase in their operating profit this year.
Originally Posted By Sport Goofy << I think Disney would KILL to have a 32% increase in their operating profit this year. >> And Universal would KILL to have Disney's margins and free cash flow.
Originally Posted By pheneix Hence Hogwarts Castle, the "Project Strongarm" Harry Potter attraction, Simpsons, Blue Man, and now apparently ANOTHER major E-ticket attraction that will be USF bound in 2009. And what does Disney have in the pipeline that can reasonably be up and running by spring 2009? ANOTHER Toy Story ride? I think they will be Universal is quite alright. >>>anyone who says HP won't be a force to be reckoned with really doesn't understand the whole phenomenom at all<<< No, we just live in a world defined by the standards of a century ago and need to recognize that the world has left notions like this behind. Apparently because there is so much competition for a customer's money we don't have to bother making quality stories anymore because something new will replace it anyway.
Originally Posted By pheneix Proofreading is a great friend too. See if you can find the butchered sentence in post 68! Ten points to the winner!
Originally Posted By Bob Paris "I think they will be Universal is quite alright." I still don't know what that means! ; )
Originally Posted By vbdad55 <Disney is doing amazing in the international market this year ... especially the UKers .. of course when they can come for 60% to start with and then get that off discounted packages ... well, you figure it out. < <<< I think Disney would KILL to have a 32% increase in their operating profit this year. >> And Universal would KILL to have Disney's margins and free cash flow.< when someone underperforms profit wise for as long as Uni - it is a lot easier to show a higher % of growth. What is the overall margin however ? The increase they have shown if it continues maybe makes them a more attractive takeover target --'again' and as much as I read this thread - which bears a lot of semblance to a W/E thread in that when someone says sonething - it then gets repeated - but overexagerrated -- I don't see anyone saying HP is going to just go away. Of course not - too many books in circulation and I have witnessed a book release that drew 50,000 people to my town of 150,000 for a themed event. BUT, that being said - staying power is measured in decades , not less. Keeping a product 'fresh' is key. There are a lot of rock bands who played in front og crowds of 50,000 - 100,000 everytwhere they went -sold lots of merchandise etc and today if playing at all play at festivals for a few thousand people at best. It happens. The staying power of Star Wars is somewhat of an unprecedented phenomenon - even really fan loyal themes like Star Trek pale in comparison. The Disney brand is another phenomena. Will HP be the same ? Too early to tell. And as far as everyone supporting - schools etc -- there were already shcools trying to ban the books for the portayal of sorcery etc ( while I think that nuts - some do not) - the key will be the next generation - those kids now 3 - 8 say -- will they get as excited about it. I can only do a non scientific sample and I have 2 nieces aged 5 and 9 - and while the 9 year old has limited interest - the 5 year old has none right now. How will they hook her in ? Will they ? we'll see. that being said if they do the HP land right I certainly want to see it. I really like HP -- as much as Star Wars or Disney - nope not even close, but a lot. It also ranks far behind Lotr for me - but again I have been sol don those books for years. But when I was in high school, when we hHAD to read the Hobbit - most kids skipped or read the cliff notes -- All one had to do was attend this summer - the largest % of Europeans in a goo dnumber of years FACT: If uni's attendance dropped and Disney's went up - they could not have gained market share. Math 101
Originally Posted By dshyates "FACT: If uni's attendance dropped and Disney's went up - they could not have gained market share. Math 101" What I was talking about is percentage of the domestic market. Which is Orlando's bread and butter. If you took the brits out of the equation the numbers would be much different. Uni. needs to kick up the UK marketing about 1000%.
Originally Posted By Sport Goofy << What I was talking about is percentage of the domestic market. >> Which you have zero facts to support talking about. You should substitute "talking" with "speculation."
Originally Posted By dshyates "Which you have zero facts to support talking about. You should substitute "talking" with "speculation."" Your right about having zero proof. Not everyone I know has a website so I can conveniently provide links to every topic we discuss. That said I don't really feel it is necessary, as this is a discussion board. I do try and provide links when I can. After living and going to school in Orlando I have a few, ok 2 friends that are credible sorces of theme park info. They are kinda annoying sometimes because they aren't into parks, and sometime have killer info I would kill for and they don't even know its important. One works freelance in set design and construction. Worked on Mummy and Everest. Mostly painting rock work. He also does airbrush makeup for HHNs. The other got her start doing A/V for conventions and now works at The Orlando Regional Chamber of Commerce. While I was there in august I didn't have a chance to talk to either of them, but have since talked to both. George is too busy to talk because of HHN. and heather says the chamber is concerned about the next 12-18 months. Ressies are the lowest they have been since 911. And the projections only say it is going to get worse. As of yet the only glimmer of light is Potter. Disney is going full steam ahead with the Lux resort project as the high-end market is going gangbusters, but are slowing down some of and postponing other stuff in the Western Way project. The Chamber is not happy as they were involved with courting some of the national chains for that project. But as of now it is all still grenlighted, just the construction timeline extended. After the Holidays Disney will be shifting some of its construction crews to the Studios because they have shortened the timeline of the Rattattoui coaster and the placemaking of the Mickey Ave. area. When I don't provide links, even if I do, you are free to reject anything I say as total agenda based doodoo. Makes no never mind to me. I really don't expect anyone to try and support discussion points here or anywhere else based on what I say. I can't imagine someone saying, "Dave over on the LPBoards said...." I just try to throw in my 2 cents worth.
Originally Posted By DLer "But, that said, I do believe Disney will gain in the long run. There will be many people tempted off property to see Potter, but I believe that Potter will bring more people to Orlando, that will include Disney than Disney guests leaving to see HP. Once agian the Euro market. They will come specifically to see Potter, but they aren't going to fly from Scotland to see Harry and not go the 12 miles to include WDW. As I have said before, I think WDW should start offering Universal, Sea World and BGT admission media, shuttles to Uni and Sea World. There is no reason Disney can't profit from the the popularity of Potter. With their hotel, and transportation abilities, if Disney plays their cards right more people will go to Disney to see Potter than stay at Uni to see Potter" Well, that will be the "battle" won't it? - Universal trying to lock in guests to their parks and hotels for 3-4 days (instead of zero days or at best 2 days). Correct me if I am wrong but I don't believe WDW has ever offered any shuttles to other properties - I believe at DLR they have had outside packages including Disney hotels that supplied shuttles to SoCal attractions. Then again, perhaps HP will provide a reason for WDW to offer shuttle service to Universal - in fact, one could actually do a bit of an offcolor ad campaign about "the other guy" coming to "Mickey's Town" or something. Still, it would seem that Universal will want to try to do something along the lines of providing special privileges for IOA for those staying at their hotels (early entry, express access, extra hours, etc.) to lock in HP fans. Of course, if the HP attractions are not well done and come off as cheesy or cheap in the slightest way in comparison to WDW attraction offerings, then Universal will have thrown away a great opportunity. It will be an interesting situation to watch over the coming years.
Originally Posted By MGuttag Regarding the "problem" of the last Harry Potter book being published in 2007 and there only being two movies yet to be released, I would note that the last Winnie the Pooh book by A.A. Milne was published in 1926 (The House at Pooh Corner) and the last Pooh movie based on an A.A. Milne book was released in 1983 (Winnie the Pooh and a Day for Eeyore). Nevertheless, Winnie the Pooh as seemed to do okay for Disney. If Harry Potter is even half as popular during the next 20 years as Pooh as been the last 20, it will be a huge deal from a merchandising standpoint.
Originally Posted By fkurucz ^^While this is true, it hasn't hurt that Disney has marketed Pooh bear to death. It has also released a great many new videos and movies over the years that are not based on the orginal stories. I would wager that if Disney had stopped with the original stories, Winnie the Pooh wouldn't be anywhere as big as he is now. And FWIW, he is a lot cuddlier than any HP character
