Originally Posted By fkurucz >>A lot of people are looking at the U6 number to find a "common" measuring stick between pre-1994 and post-1994 numbers. Currently, our U6 is about 17%. While comparing the 17% straight with 70s/80's numbers is not a fair comparison, it is also not a fair comparison to compare our current 9.6% number to the 70s/80s either<< Ding, ding, ding! We have a winner! And even during the stagflation years aof teh late 70s/early 80's they didn't have anywhere near the number of long term unemployed that we do now.
Originally Posted By fkurucz >>I'm really not trying to be argumentative... it is just hard digging through the mumbo-jumbo to find what the article is actually saying.<< Why do you think the way UE is calculated was changed? It was done so that meaningful comparisons with the past are VERY hard to make. BTW, they also changed the way they calculate inflation. But as I have said before, this is not a "cyclcal" recession we are going through. Rather, we are experiencing deep and painful structural changes. I seem to recall that not too many days ago that economists with the Federal Reserve have ruled out significant economic growth until after 2014. Someting tells me that when the end of 2012 rolls around that recovery year will be pushed out again. >>Give it 18 more years (like Japan).<< That's what I'm really afraid of: 2 more decades of what we have now.
Originally Posted By Mr X On the other hand, I do consider myself an eternal optimist when it comes to American invention. The car. The plane. The computer. The internets. Think about how that has changed the world (and thrust America again and again from "behind the curve" into the forefront). Who in 1970 (dark times to be sure) would've ever though Microsoft would come about? Or who in the 1990's would know that Google Co would become an economic driver of the future? I'm HOPING that will remain a constant. It's up to all of us Americans to keep the faith, and keep working at it. I don't know what will be the next paradigm shift, but I wouldn't bet against America when it comes to what's around the corner.
Originally Posted By fkurucz >>On the other hand, I do consider myself an eternal optimist when it comes to American invention.<< So am I. The only problem is that all those cool inventions won't provide jobs for Joe 6 Pack. If production is involved it will be offshored. Heck, even Microsoft is shifting a lot of its R&D to India, as are other companies. Why pay a PhD 100K+ per year when you can hire one overseas for a fraction of the cost.
Originally Posted By Mr X ***So am I. The only problem is that all those cool inventions won't provide jobs for Joe 6 Pack. If production is involved it will be offshored*** A good point, to be sure. I suppose I'll just hope the next big thing is something that requires it be "made in America" somehow.
Originally Posted By RoadTrip Much of the problem is with the workers. The workers of today need education; and education in the sciences, math and info tech would help a lot. The days when someone could drop out of school after 10th grade and end up making 50K per year at Ford are over. And that is why the jobs went elsewhere. Who wants to pay $50K per year for a job that requires very little education? Look at other jobs that require comparable education... you get fast food and retail. And what to they pay? About $8 per hour. Do you HONESTLY think the auto companies (or anyone else) would be stupid enough to pay someone $25 per hour when all the other jobs available to that person would only pay $8? When those wages were established factory work was still dangerous. Some jobs still are, which is why miners can still make a lot of money with very little education. But when was the last time someone was killed on the assembly line at Ford? Moral of the story? Don't drop out of school after tenth grade and expect to make a decent living. Simple as that. Stop pissing and moaning about it and get the education you need to be employable now and in the future. There are many professions just begging for employees because there just aren't enough properly educated people to perform them. So they either go to a foreign-born person on an I-9 visa or they go offshore. What else is a company to do? If you can't find what you need locally you take what you can get. I experienced that as a manager in information technology. Over the last ten years almost 50% of the people I hired were foreign born... primarily from India or China. I would have loved to hire qualified natural born Americans, but they just weren't out there. So stop whining and get yourself some edjumacation. You don't have a right to any job just because you were born here. Go to school and learn what you need to know to compete. Or work at Mickey D's for $8 per hour. The choice is yours.
Originally Posted By fkurucz Uh, I know people with technical degrees who can't find a job. Education is no longer a guarantee. Computer Science departments are deserted there days(unlike 10+ years ago) because the kids know that tech jobs are hard to find and the pay sucks. My former employer, Hewlett Packard has effectively had a wage freeze in place for the past 10 years (they even cut our pay 5% a few years ago). That is not symptomatic of a strong tech job market. BTW, no one quit over the pay cuts. Contrast that with the dot com days when you could literally walk across the street to a competitor and land a job. A few weeks ago 60 minutes did a story on unemployment in Silicon Valley. Tech jobs are not abundant or easy to find, not even in Silicon Valley. Where I work now both of our IT gus are American and we had no trouble finding qualified candidates. In fact we are so picky that we didn't hire one guy who failed the drug test. No problem, as there plenty of others to chose from. I once sat on a hiring committee. We screened over 100 resumes and over 1/3 would have fit in just fine. Anyway, I do fundamentally agree that education is a must, but Corporate America is continuing to lay off and offshore at a full clip. "Over the last ten years almost 50% of the people I hired were foreign born... primarily from India or China. I would have loved to hire qualified natural born Americans, but they just weren't out there." If its so damn hard to fill these jobs why have wages been stagnant for the last 10 years? I remember during the dot com bubble it really was hard to find people and wages skyrocketed. That has not happened since then.
Originally Posted By hopemax From what I've read, there is a shortage of the highly skilled end of the trade jobs. Metal manufacturing, electricians, etc. These jobs are "looked down" upon by society and considered "dead end" jobs. So people aren't entering those fields, and/or staying with them long enough to gain the high level mastery required. If you are smart enough to know the math/physics that are necessary, you go to a 4-yr school and fight for the white collar jobs. You don't want to work on a factory floor.
Originally Posted By ecdc I agree that education is not close to the problem here. I've droned on about my own friends enough, but if someone with a Master's Degree or a Ph.D and gobs of experience can't land a job, I don't know how education is supposed to help.
Originally Posted By RoadTrip <<If its so damn hard to fill these jobs why have wages been stagnant for the last 10 years?>> Because the University could not pay what it took to attract top people. If we required a computer science degree (which we did for most positions) it was just about impossible to find anyone who would work for the $50K we could offer except those here on an I-9 visa. I'm not saying it is easy to find good jobs now because it is not. But it makes no sense to bemoan the loss of manufacturing jobs because NOTHING is going to bring them back. When the economy comes back those with education WILL be hired. Those waiting for a manufacturing job probably never will be.
Originally Posted By plpeters70 <<When the economy comes back those with education WILL be hired. Those waiting for a manufacturing job probably never will be.>> If none of those people get hired, then how will the economy ever come back? I'm asking that sincerely. Most people in this country aren't highly educated - that's just reality. If they can't find jobs, and don't get paid, and can't shop and buy the crap that our economy is based on, then how will the economy ever recover?
Originally Posted By fkurucz In the past our "jobless recoveries" were fueled by debt. Those who did have jobs borrowed and spent, especially during the post 9/11 recovery when home equity loans soared (during the housing bubble 40% of all cars sales were financed with home equity loans). Now credit is tight and people are unwilling to borrow like they did in the past. The malaise we are in will last years, if not decades as private debt is slowly paid off. Meanwhile the offshoring machine continues to run at full speed.
Originally Posted By RoadTrip <<If none of those people get hired, then how will the economy ever come back? I'm asking that sincerely. Most people in this country aren't highly educated - that's just reality.>> People who had been in manufacturing jobs will realize they aren't going to come back and look for something else or if they are old enough, retire. Although some manufacturing jobs that are unionized pay very well, many of them were $10 per hour jobs that would not be that hard to replace if they looked outside of manufacturing. The field that has gained the most jobs over the past few years and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future is health services. Many of those positions do not take a great deal of education... a two-year associates degree qualifies you for many of them. Also, as more and more boomers retire that will take a HUGE number of people out of the job market. So even if many manufacturing jobs never return, vacancies will still exist because of the retirements. Things WILL get better.
Originally Posted By skinnerbox Things will only get better if the folks stop making babies. The jobs that will be created during the next decade will barely keep up with population growth. There will be no replacement of jobs recently lost to offshoring, both in manufacturing and tech. Any new manufacturing or tech jobs created will simply be the ones that are always needed to keep the unemployment rate from increasing. Our country now has a permanent class of "unemployable" citizens, most of whom are over 50 years in age. And for the middle aged workers, education and experience mean squat. Businesses are now addicted to cheap labor. They will continue to force younger workers to double up and increase productivity before hiring someone middle aged at a reduction in salary. Businesses simply refuse to do it. I personally know a software engineer in this category, who somehow managed to convince his current company to hire him at a 40% pay reduction after he was unemployed for 15 months. No other company was willing to give him a job with that kind of drop in compensation. And with the pay reduction, he's barely making his mortgage and bills. Any kind of emergency will put him and his family into a financial abyss for over a decade. His salary will never increase again, and he runs the obvious risk of being let go in the future if the company moves development to India or China. This is America's new reality. Corporations have a new middle class to sell their goods and services to in India and China. They don't need us as workers nor do they need us as consumers. Our economy will never turn around until small businesses are given the financial tools and incentives to grow and prosper. But corporations hate the competition, and basically own our politicians, especially the Republicans and blue dog Dems. All of the financial incentives will be given to the large corporations who don't need them. Wall Street will continue to thrive, while Main Street withers and dies on the vine. Thanks, Dems, for staying home and not voting. Thanks, Republicans, for going to the polls and voting for politicians who want to screw the middle class to the wall. America is the New Mumbai, and the middle class will soon be the new slumdogs. Get used to it.
Originally Posted By RoadTrip The labor force will continue to grow, but not by as much as over the past 20 years. The labor force is projected to increase 8.2% from 2008-2018, while total employment is expected to increase 10% from 2008-2018. Obviously, just the demographic trends show that the employment situation will be getting better. As for the retraining/training that is necessary, the greatest growth in employment by education or training category for the period 2008-2018 is for those with Associate degrees. This is obviously good news for those with education needs... a two year education at a community college costs far less than a 4 year degree from a university. Things will truly get better. Source: <a href="http://www.bls.gov/oco/oco2003.htm" target="_blank">http://www.bls.gov/oco/oco2003.htm</a>
Originally Posted By fkurucz "The labor force will continue to grow, but not by as much as over the past 20 years." That will depend a lot on our neighbors to the south.
Originally Posted By plpeters70 <<This is obviously good news for those with education needs... a two year education at a community college costs far less than a 4 year degree from a university.>> That may be true, but how are the current unemployed going to pay for all that re-training? Will the government step in and help? That doesn't seem likely considering the current climate in Washington at the moment. And with credit being so hard to come by, I doubt these folks can rely on a loan from the bank - especially if they are currently unemployed. I hate to be a Debbie-downer, but I'm just not seeing the silver-lining here that you are. From my position, this country seems more likely headed for a very extended period of decline - with a lot of pain for most Americans, except the wealthy, before we finally start climbing again.
Originally Posted By fkurucz >>For Americans over 50? Fat chance.<< Or most middle class Americans. Wages will remain stagnant and will be eaten away by inflation. And regarding education, other countries have universities, and unlike ours they do not cost a king's ransom to attend. Simply educating our workforce is only part if the answer. But what do you do when when engineers, accountants, and other white collar professionals can be hired overseas for less than $1000 per month? How do you compete with that? And what do you do with those who have no business pursuing a univerity degree. Someone has to pick up the trash, or is that what illegals are for? Do we bassically condemn half of our population to poverty because they aren't smart enough to be molecular biologists?
Originally Posted By fkurucz >>The field that has gained the most jobs over the past few years and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future is health services.<< Uh, how exactly are uninsured Americans going to pay for this healthcare? Yes, everyone is jumping on the healthcare bandwagon. Yet at the same time the gov't is having to cut back on Medicare and Medicaid budgets, while those of us with private plans watch as the deductibles soar and out of pocket expenses skyrocket. I've seen this at my GP's practice. Just 5 years ago they were booming. Even with 6 doctors the waits to see the doctor were days if not weeks long. Fast forward to today: The doctor can see me the day I call. When I get there the parking lot is nearly empty as is the waiting room. Many of my coworkers don't even have a family doctor, and instead see the nurse practitioner at Walgreens because it only costs $60 to see him/her as opposed to $140 to see the doctor. Anyone who thinks that healthcare will be a long term viable source of jobs is mistaken. As the critical mass of uninsured and underinsured swells there will be layoffs in that sector as well.
